Bo3 · Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier
· 2026-08-09
1win
✓
vs
Acend
52%
48%
Series win probability
1WIN
2–0
27%
1WIN
2–1
25%
ACEN
2–1
25%
ACEN
2–0
24%
Actual result
Anubis
13–6
1WIN
Ancient
13–3
ACEN
Dust2
13–10
1WIN
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — 1win is slightly favored at 52% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.08 vs 1.03). Either team could take this — small edges in side performance and veto are the difference.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
36%
Ancient · Mirage · Cache
Scenario 2
33%
Ancient · Mirage · Inferno
Scenario 3
31%
Ancient · Mirage · Dust2
Ancient
1WIN
13
–
9
ACEN
57%
43%
Win prob
OT 10%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Map Player Rating
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Ancient
1win
13-10
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Aug 8
13-2
vs Citron
Aug 7
13-3
vs INOX Division
Aug 5
13-5
vs ex-RUBY
Aug 3
13-10
vs los kogutos
Jul 30
Acend
13-3
vs 6666
Aug 2
8-13
vs Inner Circle
Jun 28
13-5
vs INFINITE
Jun 26
5-13
vs Sharks
Jun 25
13-11
vs Sashi
Jun 24
Mirage
1WIN
14
–
16
ACEN
48%
52%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
T 5v4
1WIN
ACEN
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Mirage
1win
13-7
vs los kogutos
Jul 30
Acend
9-13
vs NRG
Aug 8
13-6
vs Spirit HU
Aug 8
7-13
vs Betclic
Aug 4
5-13
vs BRUTE
Aug 2
13-11
vs Inner Circle
Jun 28
Cache
1WIN
11
–
13
ACEN
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
T 5v4
1WIN
ACEN
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Cache
1win
13-7
vs Liquid
Aug 9
13-4
vs Citron
Aug 7
6-13
vs BC.Game
Aug 7
13-9
vs ex-RUBY
Aug 3
Acend
2-13
vs NRG
Aug 8
13-0
vs Vandulken
Aug 7
5-13
vs Betclic
Aug 4
Ancient
1WIN
13
–
9
ACEN
57%
43%
Win prob
OT 10%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Map Player Rating
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Ancient
1win
13-10
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Aug 8
13-2
vs Citron
Aug 7
13-3
vs INOX Division
Aug 5
13-5
vs ex-RUBY
Aug 3
13-10
vs los kogutos
Jul 30
Acend
13-3
vs 6666
Aug 2
8-13
vs Inner Circle
Jun 28
13-5
vs INFINITE
Jun 26
5-13
vs Sharks
Jun 25
13-11
vs Sashi
Jun 24
Mirage
1WIN
14
–
16
ACEN
48%
52%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
T 5v4
1WIN
ACEN
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Mirage
1win
13-7
vs los kogutos
Jul 30
Acend
9-13
vs NRG
Aug 8
13-6
vs Spirit HU
Aug 8
7-13
vs Betclic
Aug 4
5-13
vs BRUTE
Aug 2
13-11
vs Inner Circle
Jun 28
Inferno
1WIN
13
–
11
ACEN
54%
46%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
Map Player Rating
1WIN
ACEN
Map Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Inferno
1win
13-11
vs INOX Division
Aug 5
Acend
13-11
vs NRG
Aug 8
13-4
vs Spirit HU
Aug 8
13-2
vs Vandulken
Aug 7
13-8
vs 6666
Aug 2
13-7
vs Echo
Jun 27
Ancient
1WIN
13
–
9
ACEN
57%
43%
Win prob
OT 10%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Map Player Rating
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Ancient
1win
13-10
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Aug 8
13-2
vs Citron
Aug 7
13-3
vs INOX Division
Aug 5
13-5
vs ex-RUBY
Aug 3
13-10
vs los kogutos
Jul 30
Acend
13-3
vs 6666
Aug 2
8-13
vs Inner Circle
Jun 28
13-5
vs INFINITE
Jun 26
5-13
vs Sharks
Jun 25
13-11
vs Sashi
Jun 24
Mirage
1WIN
14
–
16
ACEN
48%
52%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
T 5v4
1WIN
ACEN
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Mirage
1win
13-7
vs los kogutos
Jul 30
Acend
9-13
vs NRG
Aug 8
13-6
vs Spirit HU
Aug 8
7-13
vs Betclic
Aug 4
5-13
vs BRUTE
Aug 2
13-11
vs Inner Circle
Jun 28
Dust2
1WIN
16
–
14
ACEN
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
Map Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Map Player Rating
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Dust2
1win
13-5
vs Liquid
Aug 9
16-12
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Aug 8
5-13
vs BC.Game
Aug 7
12-16
vs los kogutos
Jul 30
Acend
13-5
vs BRUTE
Aug 2
10-13
vs Inner Circle
Jun 28
13-11
vs Sashi
Jun 24
14-16
vs INOX Division
Jun 19
13-9
vs BET-M
Jun 19
Recent Results
last 11 matches
1win
Acend
W
2-0
vs BASEMENT BOYS
AncientDust2
Aug 8
5d ago
W
2-0
vs Citron
CacheAncient
Aug 7
6d ago
L
0-2
vs BC.Game
CacheDust2
Aug 7
6d ago
W
2-1
vs INOX Division
InfernoAnubisAncient
Aug 5
8d ago
W
2-1
vs ex-RUBY
CacheAnubisAncient
Aug 3
10d ago
W
2-1
vs los kogutos
Dust2AncientMirage
Jul 30
14d ago
L
1-2
vs NRG
CacheInfernoMirage
Aug 8
5d ago
W
2-0
vs Spirit HU
MirageInferno
Aug 8
5d ago
W
2-0
vs Vandulken
CacheInferno
Aug 7
6d ago
L
0-2
vs Betclic
CacheMirage
Aug 4
9d ago
W
2-0
vs 6666
AncientInferno
Aug 2
11d ago
W
2-1
vs BRUTE
Dust2MirageAnubis
Aug 2
11d ago
L
1-3
vs Inner Circle
MirageDust2OverpassAncient
Jun 28
46d ago
W
2-1
vs Echo
MirageOverpassInferno
Jun 27
47d ago
W
2-0
vs INFINITE
AncientMirage
Jun 26
48d ago
L
1-2
vs Sharks
MirageAnubisAncient
Jun 25
49d ago
W
2-0
vs Sashi
Dust2Ancient
Jun 24
50d ago
Player Matchups
1win
Ratings
Acend
AX
Ax1Le
EntryADR 84.9KAST 76%
H4
h4rn
AWPADR 77.7KAST 75%
FA
fame
RiflerADR 74.3KAST 75%
KA
KalubeR
EntryADR 70.8KAST 72%
AR
ArtFr0st
AWPADR 70.3KAST 77%
SP
SPELLAN
RiflerADR 68.2KAST 69%
NA
nafany
RiflerADR 77.7KAST 71%
RE
REDSTAR
Rifler
BE
BELCHONOKK
RiflerADR 69.2KAST 70%
SK
Skrimo
Rifler
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Anubis
1WIN
10
–
13
ACEN
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
Map Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Anubis
1win
6-13
vs Liquid
Aug 9
16-19
vs INOX Division
Aug 5
8-13
vs ex-RUBY
Aug 3
Acend
13-8
vs BRUTE
Aug 2
13-9
vs Sharks
Jun 25
8-13
vs Betclic
May 23
Inferno
1WIN
13
–
11
ACEN
54%
46%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
1WIN
ACEN
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
Map Player Rating
1WIN
ACEN
Map Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Inferno
1win
13-11
vs INOX Division
Aug 5
Acend
13-11
vs NRG
Aug 8
13-4
vs Spirit HU
Aug 8
13-2
vs Vandulken
Aug 7
13-8
vs 6666
Aug 2
13-7
vs Echo
Jun 27
Dust2
1WIN
16
–
14
ACEN
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
Opponent-Rating Diff
1WIN
ACEN
Map Win Rate
1WIN
ACEN
After First Death
1WIN
ACEN
Map Player Rating
1WIN
ACEN
Recent on Dust2
1win
13-5
vs Liquid
Aug 9
16-12
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Aug 8
5-13
vs BC.Game
Aug 7
12-16
vs los kogutos
Jul 30
Acend
13-5
vs BRUTE
Aug 2
10-13
vs Inner Circle
Jun 28
13-11
vs Sashi
Jun 24
14-16
vs INOX Division
Jun 19
13-9
vs BET-M
Jun 19
More from Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier
19 matches