Bo3 · Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier
· 2026-08-09
NRG
✗
vs
Phantom
55%
45%
Series win probability
NRG
2–0
29%
NRG
2–1
26%
PHAN
2–1
24%
PHAN
2–0
21%
Actual result
Ancient
13–7
PHAN
Mirage
13–10
NRG
Inferno
13–8
PHAN
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — NRG is slightly favored at 55% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.15 vs 1.09), a significant ranking advantage (#47 vs #74), a strong cache (64% win probability). Either team could take this — small edges in side performance and veto are the difference.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
37%
Cache · Ancient · Dust2
Scenario 2
35%
Cache · Ancient · Nuke
Scenario 3
27%
Cache · Ancient · Inferno
Cache
NRG
13
–
7
PHAN
64%
36%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
NRG
PHAN
After First Death
NRG
PHAN
Map Player Rating
NRG
PHAN
Round Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Cache
NRG
13-2
vs Acend
Aug 8
13-0
vs Spirit HU
Aug 7
13-5
vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2
13-7
vs Voca
Aug 2
13-1
vs Voca
Aug 1
Phantom
6-13
vs Sashi
Aug 4
Ancient
NRG
14
–
16
PHAN
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
After First Kill
NRG
PHAN
Opening Kills
NRG
PHAN
Map Player Rating
NRG
PHAN
Round Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Ancient
NRG
16-13
vs Voca
Aug 2
8-13
vs Voca
Aug 1
6-13
vs Marsborne
Jul 29
16-13
vs NuTorious
Jul 12
Phantom
11-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 8
13-5
vs levelONE
Aug 8
13-6
vs levelONE
Aug 7
13-4
vs Lavked
Jul 30
13-11
vs Vexar
Jul 28
Dust2
NRG
16
–
14
PHAN
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
NRG
PHAN
Round Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
Map Player Rating
NRG
PHAN
Map Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Dust2
NRG
13-2
vs Marsborne
Jul 29
16-14
vs SportsBetExpert
Jul 12
Phantom
13-4
vs levelONE
Aug 8
13-3
vs levelONE
Aug 7
11-13
vs HEROIC
Jul 16
8-13
vs paiN
Jul 15
Cache
NRG
13
–
7
PHAN
64%
36%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
NRG
PHAN
After First Death
NRG
PHAN
Map Player Rating
NRG
PHAN
Round Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Cache
NRG
13-2
vs Acend
Aug 8
13-0
vs Spirit HU
Aug 7
13-5
vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2
13-7
vs Voca
Aug 2
13-1
vs Voca
Aug 1
Phantom
6-13
vs Sashi
Aug 4
Ancient
NRG
14
–
16
PHAN
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
After First Kill
NRG
PHAN
Opening Kills
NRG
PHAN
Map Player Rating
NRG
PHAN
Round Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Ancient
NRG
16-13
vs Voca
Aug 2
8-13
vs Voca
Aug 1
6-13
vs Marsborne
Jul 29
16-13
vs NuTorious
Jul 12
Phantom
11-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 8
13-5
vs levelONE
Aug 8
13-6
vs levelONE
Aug 7
13-4
vs Lavked
Jul 30
13-11
vs Vexar
Jul 28
Nuke
NRG
16
–
14
PHAN
53%
47%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NRG
PHAN
T 5v4
NRG
PHAN
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
After First Death
NRG
PHAN
Multi-Kills
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Nuke
NRG
13-7
vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2
5-13
vs Voca
Aug 1
16-13
vs Iowa Stormboar
Jul 28
13-8
vs NuTorious
Jul 12
Phantom
13-6
vs Lavked
Jul 30
13-8
vs Vexar
Jul 28
8-13
vs INOX Division
Jul 26
9-13
vs K27
Jul 17
16-14
vs HEROIC
Jul 16
Cache
NRG
13
–
7
PHAN
64%
36%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
NRG
PHAN
After First Death
NRG
PHAN
Map Player Rating
NRG
PHAN
Round Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Cache
NRG
13-2
vs Acend
Aug 8
13-0
vs Spirit HU
Aug 7
13-5
vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2
13-7
vs Voca
Aug 2
13-1
vs Voca
Aug 1
Phantom
6-13
vs Sashi
Aug 4
Ancient
NRG
14
–
16
PHAN
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
After First Kill
NRG
PHAN
Opening Kills
NRG
PHAN
Map Player Rating
NRG
PHAN
Round Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Ancient
NRG
16-13
vs Voca
Aug 2
8-13
vs Voca
Aug 1
6-13
vs Marsborne
Jul 29
16-13
vs NuTorious
Jul 12
Phantom
11-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 8
13-5
vs levelONE
Aug 8
13-6
vs levelONE
Aug 7
13-4
vs Lavked
Jul 30
13-11
vs Vexar
Jul 28
Inferno
NRG
16
–
14
PHAN
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
Map Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Map Player Rating
NRG
PHAN
Opening Score
NRG
PHAN
After First Death
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Inferno
NRG
11-13
vs Acend
Aug 8
13-8
vs Marsborne
Jul 29
13-6
vs Iowa Stormboar
Jul 28
13-2
vs SportsBetExpert
Jul 12
Phantom
19-17
vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 8
13-3
vs INOX Division
Jul 26
Recent Results
last 11 matches
NRG
Phantom
W
2-1
vs Acend
CacheInfernoMirage
Aug 8
5d ago
W
2-0
vs Spirit HU
MirageCache
Aug 7
6d ago
W
2-0
vs SportsBetExpert
NukeCache
Aug 2
11d ago
W
2-0
vs Voca
CacheAncient
Aug 2
11d ago
L
1-2
vs Voca
CacheNukeAncient
Aug 1
12d ago
W
2-1
vs Marsborne
AncientDust2Inferno
Jul 29
15d ago
W
2-0
vs Iowa Stormboar
NukeInferno
Jul 28
16d ago
W
2-0
vs Eh
MirageCache
Jul 12
32d ago
W
2-0
vs NuTorious
AncientNuke
Jul 12
32d ago
W
3-1
vs SportsBetExpert
Dust2MirageInfernoCache
Jul 12
32d ago
L
1-2
vs EYEBALLERS
AncientInfernoAnubis
Aug 8
5d ago
W
2-0
vs levelONE
Dust2Ancient
Aug 8
5d ago
W
2-0
vs levelONE
Dust2Ancient
Aug 7
6d ago
L
0-2
vs Sashi
AnubisCache
Aug 4
9d ago
W
2-0
vs Lavked
AncientNuke
Jul 30
14d ago
W
2-0
vs Vexar
AncientNuke
Jul 28
16d ago
L
1-2
vs INOX Division
AncientInfernoNuke
Jul 26
18d ago
W
2-0
vs G2 Ares
MirageAncient
Jul 24
20d ago
L
0-2
vs K27
NukeAncient
Jul 17
27d ago
L
1-2
vs HEROIC
AncientNukeDust2
Jul 16
28d ago
W
2-1
vs paiN
Dust2AnubisNuke
Jul 15
29d ago
Player Matchups
NRG
Ratings
Phantom
SO
Sonic
EntryADR 83.9KAST 74%
NI
nicoodoz
AWPADR 82.9KAST 77%
HA
hallzerk
AWPADR 76.6KAST 80%
KY
Kylar
EntryADR 74.6KAST 74%
JE
Jeorge
RiflerADR 77.8KAST 76%
KE
KEi
RiflerADR 78.0KAST 74%
GR
Grim
RiflerADR 79.0KAST 73%
TM
TMB
RiflerADR 73.2KAST 70%
NI
nitr0
RiflerADR 68.5KAST 75%
CE
cej0t
RiflerADR 70.4KAST 73%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Nuke
NRG
16
–
14
PHAN
53%
47%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NRG
PHAN
T 5v4
NRG
PHAN
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
After First Death
NRG
PHAN
Multi-Kills
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Nuke
NRG
13-7
vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2
5-13
vs Voca
Aug 1
16-13
vs Iowa Stormboar
Jul 28
13-8
vs NuTorious
Jul 12
Phantom
13-6
vs Lavked
Jul 30
13-8
vs Vexar
Jul 28
8-13
vs INOX Division
Jul 26
9-13
vs K27
Jul 17
16-14
vs HEROIC
Jul 16
Mirage
NRG
16
–
14
PHAN
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
NRG
PHAN
After First Kill
NRG
PHAN
Round Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
Opening Kills
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Mirage
NRG
13-9
vs Acend
Aug 8
13-4
vs Spirit HU
Aug 7
13-1
vs Eh
Jul 12
9-13
vs SportsBetExpert
Jul 12
Phantom
13-10
vs G2 Ares
Jul 24
Inferno
NRG
16
–
14
PHAN
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
NRG
PHAN
Map Win Rate
NRG
PHAN
Map Player Rating
NRG
PHAN
Opening Score
NRG
PHAN
After First Death
NRG
PHAN
Recent on Inferno
NRG
11-13
vs Acend
Aug 8
13-8
vs Marsborne
Jul 29
13-6
vs Iowa Stormboar
Jul 28
13-2
vs SportsBetExpert
Jul 12
Phantom
19-17
vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 8
13-3
vs INOX Division
Jul 26
More from Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier
19 matches