Bo3 · Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier
· 2026-08-09
HEROIC
✓
vs
ASTRAL
54%
46%
Series win probability
HERO
2–1
28%
HERO
2–0
26%
ASTR
2–0
24%
ASTR
2–1
22%
Actual result
Cache
13–11
HERO
Inferno
13–2
HERO
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — HEROIC is slightly favored at 54% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#27 vs #90). Either team could take this — small edges in side performance and veto are the difference.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
39%
Inferno · Mirage · Nuke
Scenario 2
33%
Inferno · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 3
28%
Inferno · Mirage · Dust2
Inferno
HERO
16
–
14
ASTR
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 11%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
HEROIC
13-2
vs REM
Aug 7
13-10
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
13-11
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
ASTRAL
13-6
vs SINQU REHTI
Jun 28
4-13
vs ARCRED
Jun 6
13-11
vs UNiTY
May 31
2-13
vs Rebels
May 26
13-8
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
May 25
Mirage
HERO
13
–
10
ASTR
53%
47%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
HEROIC
13-3
vs 9INE
Aug 7
16-12
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-9
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
ASTRAL
6-13
vs Inner Circle
Aug 7
13-6
vs PURE
Jul 28
13-10
vs Leo
Jun 29
3-13
vs ARCRED
Jun 6
6-13
vs Lavked
Jun 2
Nuke
HERO
13
–
10
ASTR
57%
43%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
HEROIC
13-6
vs 9INE
Aug 7
8-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-5
vs The MongolZ
Jul 24
13-9
vs K27
Jul 18
9-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
ASTRAL
19-15
vs NAVI Junior
Jul 28
13-10
vs BRUTE
Jul 28
0-13
vs PURE
Jul 27
13-5
vs SINQU REHTI
Jun 29
8-13
vs KOLESIE
Jun 8
Inferno
HERO
16
–
14
ASTR
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 11%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
HEROIC
13-2
vs REM
Aug 7
13-10
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
13-11
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
ASTRAL
13-6
vs SINQU REHTI
Jun 28
4-13
vs ARCRED
Jun 6
13-11
vs UNiTY
May 31
2-13
vs Rebels
May 26
13-8
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
May 25
Mirage
HERO
13
–
10
ASTR
53%
47%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
HEROIC
13-3
vs 9INE
Aug 7
16-12
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-9
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
ASTRAL
6-13
vs Inner Circle
Aug 7
13-6
vs PURE
Jul 28
13-10
vs Leo
Jun 29
3-13
vs ARCRED
Jun 6
6-13
vs Lavked
Jun 2
Ancient
HERO
16
–
14
ASTR
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Opening Kills
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Opening Score
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
HEROIC
13-0
vs REM
Aug 7
10-13
vs 9INE
Aug 7
9-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs Astralis
Jul 24
13-6
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
ASTRAL
13-1
vs Kreazion
Aug 7
6-13
vs Inner Circle
Aug 7
13-7
vs NAVI Junior
Jul 28
13-1
vs PURE
Jul 28
13-7
vs atputies
Jul 27
Inferno
HERO
16
–
14
ASTR
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 11%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
HEROIC
13-2
vs REM
Aug 7
13-10
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
13-11
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
ASTRAL
13-6
vs SINQU REHTI
Jun 28
4-13
vs ARCRED
Jun 6
13-11
vs UNiTY
May 31
2-13
vs Rebels
May 26
13-8
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
May 25
Mirage
HERO
13
–
10
ASTR
53%
47%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
HEROIC
13-3
vs 9INE
Aug 7
16-12
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-9
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
ASTRAL
6-13
vs Inner Circle
Aug 7
13-6
vs PURE
Jul 28
13-10
vs Leo
Jun 29
3-13
vs ARCRED
Jun 6
6-13
vs Lavked
Jun 2
Dust2
HERO
13
–
11
ASTR
54%
46%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Opening Kills
HERO
ASTR
Experience
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
HEROIC
16-19
vs The MongolZ
Jul 24
13-10
vs Astralis
Jul 24
8-13
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-11
vs Phantom
Jul 16
ASTRAL
13-3
vs Kreazion
Aug 7
7-13
vs BRUTE
Jul 28
13-5
vs Leo
Jun 29
13-6
vs Leo
May 31
13-9
vs UNiTY
May 31
Recent Results
last 11 matches
HEROIC
ASTRAL
W
2-0
vs REM
InfernoAncient
Aug 7
6d ago
W
2-1
vs 9INE
AncientMirageNuke
Aug 7
6d ago
L
1-2
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
MirageNukeAncient
Jul 25
19d ago
L
1-2
vs The MongolZ
NukeCacheDust2
Jul 24
20d ago
W
2-0
vs Astralis
Dust2Ancient
Jul 24
20d ago
W
2-0
vs FOKUS
AncientInferno
Jul 23
21d ago
L
1-2
vs HOTU
MirageCacheDust2
Jul 21
23d ago
W
3-0
vs K27
NukeMirageDust2
Jul 18
26d ago
W
2-1
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
InfernoNukeMirage
Jul 17
27d ago
W
2-1
vs Phantom
AncientNukeDust2
Jul 16
28d ago
W
2-1
vs 3DMAX
InfernoCacheNuke
Jul 15
29d ago
W
2-0
vs Kreazion
Dust2Ancient
Aug 7
6d ago
L
0-2
vs Inner Circle
AncientMirage
Aug 7
6d ago
W
2-0
vs NAVI Junior
AncientNuke
Jul 28
16d ago
W
2-0
vs PURE
AncientMirage
Jul 28
16d ago
L
1-2
vs BRUTE
AnubisNukeDust2
Jul 28
16d ago
L
0-1
vs Noir Verse
Anubis
Jul 27
17d ago
L
0-1
vs PURE
Nuke
Jul 27
17d ago
W
1-0
vs atputies
Ancient
Jul 27
17d ago
W
2-0
vs SINQU REHTI
NukeAncient
Jun 29
45d ago
W
2-0
vs Leo
MirageDust2
Jun 29
45d ago
W
1-0
vs 6666
Anubis
Jun 28
46d ago
Player Matchups
HEROIC
Ratings
ASTRAL
MA
MartinezSa
AWPADR 74.1KAST 74%
RA
RaY5ive
AWPADR 72.6KAST 72%
NI
nilo
EntryADR 78.5KAST 73%
ME
meowpop
EntryADR 65.8KAST 73%
CH
Chr1zN
RiflerADR 72.5KAST 70%
NE
Neqy
RiflerADR 73.0KAST 70%
SU
susp
RiflerADR 68.4KAST 72%
GX
gxx-
Rifler
BR
Brollan
Rifler
SW
swiz
Rifler
Unpredicted Maps
4 maps
Cache
HERO
13
–
11
ASTR
64%
36%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Cache
HEROIC
8-13
vs The MongolZ
Jul 24
6-13
vs HOTU
Jul 21
8-13
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
ASTRAL
no data
Anubis
HERO
10
–
13
ASTR
40%
60%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
Ban Rate
HERO
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Anubis
HEROIC
no data
ASTRAL
7-13
vs BRUTE
Jul 28
6-13
vs Noir Verse
Jul 27
13-4
vs 6666
Jun 28
13-5
vs BERG
Jun 28
12-16
vs KOLESIE
Jun 8
Dust2
HERO
13
–
11
ASTR
54%
46%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
After First Kill
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Opening Kills
HERO
ASTR
Experience
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
HEROIC
16-19
vs The MongolZ
Jul 24
13-10
vs Astralis
Jul 24
8-13
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-11
vs Phantom
Jul 16
ASTRAL
13-3
vs Kreazion
Aug 7
7-13
vs BRUTE
Jul 28
13-5
vs Leo
Jun 29
13-6
vs Leo
May 31
13-9
vs UNiTY
May 31
Ancient
HERO
16
–
14
ASTR
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
HERO
ASTR
After First Death
HERO
ASTR
Opening Kills
HERO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HERO
ASTR
Opening Score
HERO
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
HEROIC
13-0
vs REM
Aug 7
10-13
vs 9INE
Aug 7
9-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs Astralis
Jul 24
13-6
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
ASTRAL
13-1
vs Kreazion
Aug 7
6-13
vs Inner Circle
Aug 7
13-7
vs NAVI Junior
Jul 28
13-1
vs PURE
Jul 28
13-7
vs atputies
Jul 27
More from Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier
19 matches