Bo3 · Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier
· 2026-08-09
HEROIC
vs
fnatic
✓
48%
52%
Series win probability
FNAT
2–1
27%
FNAT
2–0
25%
HERO
2–0
25%
HERO
2–1
23%
Actual result
Ancient
13–9
FNAT
Inferno
13–11
FNAT
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — fnatic is slightly favored at 52% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.16 vs 1.07), stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#48 vs #27). Either team could take this — small edges in side performance and veto are the difference.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
35%
Mirage · Ancient · Dust2
Scenario 2
34%
Mirage · Ancient · Cache
Scenario 3
32%
Mirage · Ancient · Inferno
Mirage
HERO
14
–
16
FNAT
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Map Player Rating
HERO
FNAT
Ranking
HERO
FNAT
Overall Rating
HERO
FNAT
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Mirage
HEROIC
13-3
vs 9INE
Aug 7
16-12
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-9
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
fnatic
13-4
vs Metizport
Aug 3
6-13
vs Metizport
Jun 14
13-3
vs Minkens finest
Jun 13
13-11
vs aimclub
Jun 13
Ancient
HERO
16
–
14
FNAT
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Ranking
HERO
FNAT
Overall Rating
HERO
FNAT
After First Kill
HERO
FNAT
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Ancient
HEROIC
13-0
vs REM
Aug 7
10-13
vs 9INE
Aug 7
9-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs Astralis
Jul 24
13-6
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
fnatic
13-5
vs FKOMAR
Aug 7
13-5
vs EAC
Aug 4
13-9
vs Lilmix
Aug 3
2-13
vs Metizport
Aug 3
13-0
vs HOTU
Jul 14
Dust2
HERO
14
–
16
FNAT
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Ranking
HERO
FNAT
Overall Rating
HERO
FNAT
Opening Kills
HERO
FNAT
Round Win Rate
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Dust2
HEROIC
16-19
vs The MongolZ
Jul 24
13-10
vs Astralis
Jul 24
8-13
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-11
vs Phantom
Jul 16
fnatic
13-4
vs 6666
Aug 7
10-13
vs Liquid
Aug 5
5-13
vs BRUTE
Jul 14
13-3
vs HOTU
Jul 14
13-8
vs SPARTA
Jul 13
Mirage
HERO
14
–
16
FNAT
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Map Player Rating
HERO
FNAT
Ranking
HERO
FNAT
Overall Rating
HERO
FNAT
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Mirage
HEROIC
13-3
vs 9INE
Aug 7
16-12
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-9
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
fnatic
13-4
vs Metizport
Aug 3
6-13
vs Metizport
Jun 14
13-3
vs Minkens finest
Jun 13
13-11
vs aimclub
Jun 13
Ancient
HERO
16
–
14
FNAT
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Ranking
HERO
FNAT
Overall Rating
HERO
FNAT
After First Kill
HERO
FNAT
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Ancient
HEROIC
13-0
vs REM
Aug 7
10-13
vs 9INE
Aug 7
9-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs Astralis
Jul 24
13-6
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
fnatic
13-5
vs FKOMAR
Aug 7
13-5
vs EAC
Aug 4
13-9
vs Lilmix
Aug 3
2-13
vs Metizport
Aug 3
13-0
vs HOTU
Jul 14
Cache
HERO
9
–
13
FNAT
46%
54%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Ban Rate
HERO
FNAT
After First Kill
HERO
FNAT
Round Win Rate
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Cache
HEROIC
13-11
vs ASTRAL
Aug 9
8-13
vs The MongolZ
Jul 24
6-13
vs HOTU
Jul 21
8-13
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
fnatic
13-3
vs FKOMAR
Aug 7
16-13
vs EAC
Aug 4
13-7
vs Lilmix
Aug 3
13-9
vs BRUTE
Jul 14
16-19
vs Misa
Jul 12
Mirage
HERO
14
–
16
FNAT
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Map Player Rating
HERO
FNAT
Ranking
HERO
FNAT
Overall Rating
HERO
FNAT
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Mirage
HEROIC
13-3
vs 9INE
Aug 7
16-12
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-9
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
fnatic
13-4
vs Metizport
Aug 3
6-13
vs Metizport
Jun 14
13-3
vs Minkens finest
Jun 13
13-11
vs aimclub
Jun 13
Ancient
HERO
16
–
14
FNAT
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Ranking
HERO
FNAT
Overall Rating
HERO
FNAT
After First Kill
HERO
FNAT
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Ancient
HEROIC
13-0
vs REM
Aug 7
10-13
vs 9INE
Aug 7
9-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 25
13-10
vs Astralis
Jul 24
13-6
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
fnatic
13-5
vs FKOMAR
Aug 7
13-5
vs EAC
Aug 4
13-9
vs Lilmix
Aug 3
2-13
vs Metizport
Aug 3
13-0
vs HOTU
Jul 14
Inferno
HERO
16
–
14
FNAT
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 11%
✗
Key factors
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Overall Rating
HERO
FNAT
Round Win Rate
HERO
FNAT
Map Player Rating
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Inferno
HEROIC
13-2
vs ASTRAL
Aug 9
13-2
vs REM
Aug 7
13-10
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
13-11
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
fnatic
13-5
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Jun 13
Recent Results
last 11 matches
HEROIC
fnatic
W
2-0
vs REM
InfernoAncient
Aug 7
6d ago
W
2-1
vs 9INE
AncientMirageNuke
Aug 7
6d ago
L
1-2
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
MirageNukeAncient
Jul 25
19d ago
L
1-2
vs The MongolZ
NukeCacheDust2
Jul 24
20d ago
W
2-0
vs Astralis
Dust2Ancient
Jul 24
20d ago
W
2-0
vs FOKUS
AncientInferno
Jul 23
21d ago
L
1-2
vs HOTU
MirageCacheDust2
Jul 21
23d ago
W
3-0
vs K27
NukeMirageDust2
Jul 18
26d ago
W
2-1
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
InfernoNukeMirage
Jul 17
27d ago
W
2-1
vs Phantom
AncientNukeDust2
Jul 16
28d ago
W
2-1
vs 3DMAX
InfernoCacheNuke
Jul 15
29d ago
W
2-0
vs FKOMAR
AncientCache
Aug 7
6d ago
W
2-0
vs 6666
Dust2Anubis
Aug 7
6d ago
L
0-2
vs Liquid
Dust2Anubis
Aug 5
8d ago
W
2-0
vs EAC
CacheAncient
Aug 4
9d ago
W
2-0
vs Lilmix
CacheAncient
Aug 3
10d ago
W
2-1
vs Metizport
AncientAnubisMirage
Aug 3
10d ago
W
2-1
vs BRUTE
Dust2CacheAnubis
Jul 14
30d ago
W
2-0
vs HOTU
AncientDust2
Jul 14
30d ago
W
2-0
vs SPARTA
Dust2Ancient
Jul 13
31d ago
W
2-1
vs Misa
Dust2CacheAnubis
Jul 12
32d ago
W
2-0
vs The Last Resort
AncientCache
Jul 12
32d ago
Player Matchups
HEROIC
Ratings
fnatic
MA
MartinezSa
AWPADR 74.1KAST 74%
JA
jambo
AWPADR 79.8KAST 75%
NI
nilo
EntryADR 78.5KAST 73%
CA
cairne
EntryADR 79.3KAST 76%
CH
Chr1zN
RiflerADR 72.5KAST 70%
MA
mazay
RiflerADR 78.7KAST 73%
SU
susp
RiflerADR 68.4KAST 72%
FE
fEAR
Rifler
BR
Brollan
Rifler
JA
jackasmo
Rifler
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Cache
HERO
9
–
13
FNAT
46%
54%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Ban Rate
HERO
FNAT
After First Kill
HERO
FNAT
Round Win Rate
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Cache
HEROIC
13-11
vs ASTRAL
Aug 9
8-13
vs The MongolZ
Jul 24
6-13
vs HOTU
Jul 21
8-13
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
fnatic
13-3
vs FKOMAR
Aug 7
16-13
vs EAC
Aug 4
13-7
vs Lilmix
Aug 3
13-9
vs BRUTE
Jul 14
16-19
vs Misa
Jul 12
Anubis
HERO
10
–
13
FNAT
46%
54%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
After First Kill
HERO
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Ban Rate
HERO
FNAT
Ranking
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Anubis
HEROIC
no data
fnatic
13-5
vs 6666
Aug 7
5-13
vs Liquid
Aug 5
13-8
vs Metizport
Aug 3
13-11
vs BRUTE
Jul 14
13-8
vs Misa
Jul 12
Inferno
HERO
16
–
14
FNAT
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
HERO
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
HERO
FNAT
Overall Rating
HERO
FNAT
Round Win Rate
HERO
FNAT
Map Player Rating
HERO
FNAT
Recent on Inferno
HEROIC
13-2
vs ASTRAL
Aug 9
13-2
vs REM
Aug 7
13-10
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
13-11
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
fnatic
13-5
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Jun 13
More from Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier
19 matches