Bo3 · Esports World Cup 2026
· 2026-08-13
Falcons
✓
vs
Astralis
51%
49%
Series win probability
FALC
2–0
28%
ASTR
2–1
27%
FALC
2–1
23%
ASTR
2–0
22%
Actual result
Ancient
13–7
FALC
Dust2
13–11
FALC
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Falcons is slightly favored at 51% but only leads on 3 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.07 vs 1.02). Either team could take this — small edges in side performance and veto are the difference.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
40%
Dust2 · Ancient · Nuke
Scenario 2
36%
Dust2 · Ancient · Mirage
Scenario 3
24%
Dust2 · Ancient · Cache
Dust2
FALC
13
–
9
ASTR
56%
44%
Win prob
OT 10%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Map Player Rating
FALC
ASTR
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
Falcons
13-6
vs K27
Aug 12
7-13
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 22
16-12
vs Spirit
Jun 20
13-11
vs Vitality
Jun 19
13-3
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 14
Astralis
9-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 1
10-13
vs HEROIC
Jul 24
10-13
vs FOKUS
Jul 21
8-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-4
vs Liquid
May 11
Ancient
FALC
13
–
11
ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Opening Kills
FALC
ASTR
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Falcons
10-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 12
16-13
vs G2
Jun 11
9-13
vs Legacy
May 23
13-9
vs Legacy
May 21
13-11
vs M80
May 20
Astralis
13-6
vs MOUZ
Aug 1
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 25
10-13
vs HEROIC
Jul 24
13-16
vs HOTU
Jul 22
13-10
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
Nuke
FALC
16
–
14
ASTR
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
Map Player Rating
FALC
ASTR
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
Map Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
Falcons
13-4
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 22
11-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 12
13-11
vs Legacy
May 23
13-10
vs MOUZ
May 22
22-20
vs FURIA
May 15
Astralis
10-13
vs paiN
Jul 31
7-13
vs HOTU
Jul 25
11-13
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
13-1
vs FOKUS
Jul 21
11-13
vs paiN
Jun 8
Dust2
FALC
13
–
9
ASTR
56%
44%
Win prob
OT 10%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Map Player Rating
FALC
ASTR
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
Falcons
13-6
vs K27
Aug 12
7-13
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 22
16-12
vs Spirit
Jun 20
13-11
vs Vitality
Jun 19
13-3
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 14
Astralis
9-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 1
10-13
vs HEROIC
Jul 24
10-13
vs FOKUS
Jul 21
8-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-4
vs Liquid
May 11
Ancient
FALC
13
–
11
ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Opening Kills
FALC
ASTR
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Falcons
10-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 12
16-13
vs G2
Jun 11
9-13
vs Legacy
May 23
13-9
vs Legacy
May 21
13-11
vs M80
May 20
Astralis
13-6
vs MOUZ
Aug 1
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 25
10-13
vs HEROIC
Jul 24
13-16
vs HOTU
Jul 22
13-10
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
Mirage
FALC
11
–
13
ASTR
46%
54%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
T 5v4
FALC
ASTR
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
Falcons
13-8
vs FURIA
Jun 21
8-13
vs Spirit
Jun 20
7-13
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 14
13-10
vs Monte
Jun 13
6-13
vs Legacy
May 23
Astralis
9-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 1
16-14
vs paiN
Jul 31
13-11
vs SINNERS
May 13
3-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-5
vs FUT
Apr 30
Dust2
FALC
13
–
9
ASTR
56%
44%
Win prob
OT 10%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Map Player Rating
FALC
ASTR
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
Falcons
13-6
vs K27
Aug 12
7-13
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 22
16-12
vs Spirit
Jun 20
13-11
vs Vitality
Jun 19
13-3
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 14
Astralis
9-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 1
10-13
vs HEROIC
Jul 24
10-13
vs FOKUS
Jul 21
8-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-4
vs Liquid
May 11
Ancient
FALC
13
–
11
ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Opening Kills
FALC
ASTR
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Falcons
10-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 12
16-13
vs G2
Jun 11
9-13
vs Legacy
May 23
13-9
vs Legacy
May 21
13-11
vs M80
May 20
Astralis
13-6
vs MOUZ
Aug 1
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 25
10-13
vs HEROIC
Jul 24
13-16
vs HOTU
Jul 22
13-10
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
Cache
FALC
10
–
13
ASTR
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Opening Kills
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Cache
Falcons
no data
Astralis
13-1
vs HOTU
Jul 25
14-16
vs HOTU
Jul 22
13-7
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Falcons
Astralis
W
1-0
vs K27
Dust2
Aug 12
1d ago
L
1-2
vs 100 Thieves
NukeDust2Anubis
Jul 22
22d ago
W
3-0
vs FURIA
MirageAnubisInferno
Jun 21
53d ago
W
2-1
vs Spirit
AnubisMirageDust2
Jun 20
54d ago
W
2-1
vs Vitality
AnubisInfernoDust2
Jun 19
55d ago
W
2-1
vs Natus Vincere
Dust2MirageAnubis
Jun 14
60d ago
W
2-1
vs Monte
InfernoDust2Mirage
Jun 13
61d ago
L
0-2
vs BetBoom
NukeAncient
Jun 12
62d ago
W
2-1
vs G2
InfernoDust2Ancient
Jun 11
63d ago
L
1-3
vs Legacy
NukeAncientMirageDust2
May 23
82d ago
W
2-1
vs MOUZ
MirageDust2Nuke
May 22
83d ago
W
1-0
vs MIBR
Inferno
Aug 12
1d ago
L
1-2
vs MOUZ
AncientMirageDust2
Aug 1
12d ago
W
2-1
vs paiN
NukeInfernoMirage
Jul 31
13d ago
W
2-1
vs HOTU
CacheNukeAncient
Jul 25
19d ago
L
0-2
vs HEROIC
Dust2Ancient
Jul 24
20d ago
L
0-2
vs HOTU
CacheAncient
Jul 22
22d ago
W
2-1
vs Nemesis
NukeAncientCache
Jul 21
23d ago
W
2-1
vs FOKUS
Dust2AncientNuke
Jul 21
23d ago
L
0-2
vs paiN
NukeOverpass
Jun 8
66d ago
L
0-1
vs TYLOO
Nuke
Jun 7
67d ago
W
1-0
vs GamerLegion
Ancient
Jun 6
68d ago
Player Matchups
Falcons
Ratings
Astralis
M0
m0NESY
AWPADR 80.4KAST 75%
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 81.4KAST 73%
KY
kyousuke
RiflerADR 82.8KAST 75%
JA
jabbi
RiflerADR 75.1KAST 71%
NI
NiKo
EntryADR 73.4KAST 74%
RY
ryu
EntryADR 71.6KAST 75%
TE
TeSeS
RiflerADR 68.2KAST 72%
PH
phzy
AWPADR 68.1KAST 70%
KA
karrigan
RiflerADR 55.3KAST 67%
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 59.1KAST 69%
Unpredicted Maps
4 maps
Anubis
FALC
13
–
10
ASTR
64%
36%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
Ban Rate
FALC
ASTR
Opening Kills
FALC
ASTR
Map Firepower
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Anubis
Falcons
11-13
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 22
13-8
vs FURIA
Jun 21
16-14
vs Spirit
Jun 20
13-11
vs Vitality
Jun 19
19-16
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 14
Astralis
no data
Cache
FALC
10
–
13
ASTR
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Opening Kills
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Cache
Falcons
no data
Astralis
13-1
vs HOTU
Jul 25
14-16
vs HOTU
Jul 22
13-7
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
Inferno
FALC
13
–
11
ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
T 5v4
FALC
ASTR
Map Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
Falcons
13-8
vs FURIA
Jun 21
11-13
vs Vitality
Jun 19
13-9
vs Monte
Jun 13
10-13
vs G2
Jun 11
19-15
vs M80
May 20
Astralis
13-6
vs MIBR
Aug 12
19-17
vs paiN
Jul 31
13-8
vs SINNERS
May 13
14-16
vs GamerLegion
May 1
13-2
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
Mirage
FALC
11
–
13
ASTR
46%
54%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
FALC
ASTR
Ranking
FALC
ASTR
Round Win Rate
FALC
ASTR
T 5v4
FALC
ASTR
After First Death
FALC
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
Falcons
13-8
vs FURIA
Jun 21
8-13
vs Spirit
Jun 20
7-13
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 14
13-10
vs Monte
Jun 13
6-13
vs Legacy
May 23
Astralis
9-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 1
16-14
vs paiN
Jul 31
13-11
vs SINNERS
May 13
3-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-5
vs FUT
Apr 30
More from Esports World Cup 2026
2 matches