Bo3 · Esports World Cup 2026
· 2026-08-13
Luminosity
vs
Spirit
✓
35%
65%
Series win probability
SPIR
2–0
36%
SPIR
2–1
29%
LUMI
2–1
19%
LUMI
2–0
16%
Actual result
Ancient
13–3
SPIR
Dust2
19–15
SPIR
Model Insights
Spirit has a moderate edge at 65%, favored on 3 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.12 vs 0.93), a significant ranking advantage (#1 vs #34), a strong dust2 (62% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
37%
Dust2 · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 2
33%
Dust2 · Mirage · Anubis
Scenario 3
30%
Dust2 · Mirage · Cache
Dust2
LUMI
9
–
13
SPIR
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 10%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
Map Player Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Opening Kills
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
Luminosity
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Jun 14
13-11
vs Falcons
Jun 13
13-11
vs paiN
Jun 9
8-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 8
4-13
vs G2
May 13
Spirit
8-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 2
13-6
vs FaZe
Aug 1
13-7
vs Liquid
Jul 30
13-0
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 26
11-13
vs OG
Jul 23
Mirage
LUMI
10
–
13
SPIR
43%
57%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Map Player Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Opening Kills
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
Luminosity
7-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 3
10-13
vs Falcons
Jun 13
7-13
vs PARIVISION
Jun 12
13-6
vs BetBoom
Jun 8
13-8
vs BIG
Jun 6
Spirit
10-13
vs JiJieHao
Aug 12
4-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 2
4-13
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 26
13-8
vs Falcons
Jun 20
25-22
vs G2
Jun 19
Ancient
LUMI
10
–
13
SPIR
40%
60%
Win prob
OT 11%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Round Win Rate
LUMI
SPIR
Overall Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Ancient
Luminosity
13-9
vs PARIVISION
Jun 12
13-11
vs Legacy
Jun 7
2-13
vs G2
May 13
10-13
vs Falcons
May 11
13-11
vs magic
May 10
Spirit
13-9
vs MOUZ
Aug 2
19-16
vs OG
Jul 23
13-10
vs Falcons
May 17
13-11
vs G2
May 15
19-16
vs The MongolZ
May 10
Dust2
LUMI
9
–
13
SPIR
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 10%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
Map Player Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Opening Kills
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
Luminosity
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Jun 14
13-11
vs Falcons
Jun 13
13-11
vs paiN
Jun 9
8-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 8
4-13
vs G2
May 13
Spirit
8-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 2
13-6
vs FaZe
Aug 1
13-7
vs Liquid
Jul 30
13-0
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 26
11-13
vs OG
Jul 23
Mirage
LUMI
10
–
13
SPIR
43%
57%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Map Player Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Opening Kills
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
Luminosity
7-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 3
10-13
vs Falcons
Jun 13
7-13
vs PARIVISION
Jun 12
13-6
vs BetBoom
Jun 8
13-8
vs BIG
Jun 6
Spirit
10-13
vs JiJieHao
Aug 12
4-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 2
4-13
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 26
13-8
vs Falcons
Jun 20
25-22
vs G2
Jun 19
Anubis
LUMI
10
–
13
SPIR
36%
64%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
Map Player Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Opening Kills
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
Luminosity
7-13
vs Aurora
Jun 11
13-2
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Apr 26
16-14
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Apr 24
13-11
vs Alliance
Mar 31
13-8
vs Passion UA
Mar 31
Spirit
13-11
vs FaZe
Aug 1
13-5
vs Liquid
Jul 30
13-11
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 26
14-16
vs Falcons
Jun 20
13-4
vs Aurora
Jun 12
Dust2
LUMI
9
–
13
SPIR
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 10%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
Map Player Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Opening Kills
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
Luminosity
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Jun 14
13-11
vs Falcons
Jun 13
13-11
vs paiN
Jun 9
8-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 8
4-13
vs G2
May 13
Spirit
8-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 2
13-6
vs FaZe
Aug 1
13-7
vs Liquid
Jul 30
13-0
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 26
11-13
vs OG
Jul 23
Mirage
LUMI
10
–
13
SPIR
43%
57%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Map Player Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Opening Kills
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
Luminosity
7-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 3
10-13
vs Falcons
Jun 13
7-13
vs PARIVISION
Jun 12
13-6
vs BetBoom
Jun 8
13-8
vs BIG
Jun 6
Spirit
10-13
vs JiJieHao
Aug 12
4-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 2
4-13
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 26
13-8
vs Falcons
Jun 20
25-22
vs G2
Jun 19
Cache
LUMI
10
–
13
SPIR
40%
60%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Round Win Rate
LUMI
SPIR
Overall Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Cache
Luminosity
no data
Spirit
9-13
vs FaZe
Aug 1
13-4
vs OG
Jul 23
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Luminosity
Spirit
L
0-1
vs GamerLegion
Nuke
Aug 12
1d ago
L
1-2
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
NukeInfernoMirage
Jul 3
41d ago
L
0-1
vs Lynn Vision
Inferno
Jul 2
42d ago
L
0-1
vs Nemesis
Inferno
Jul 1
43d ago
L
1-2
vs The MongolZ
NukeInfernoDust2
Jun 14
60d ago
L
1-2
vs Falcons
InfernoDust2Mirage
Jun 13
61d ago
W
2-1
vs PARIVISION
MirageAncientInferno
Jun 12
62d ago
L
0-2
vs Aurora
NukeAnubis
Jun 11
63d ago
W
2-0
vs paiN
NukeDust2
Jun 9
65d ago
L
1-2
vs BetBoom
NukeMirageDust2
Jun 8
66d ago
W
1-0
vs Legacy
Ancient
Jun 7
67d ago
L
0-1
vs JiJieHao
Mirage
Aug 12
1d ago
L
1-3
vs MOUZ
Dust2MirageAncientNuke
Aug 2
11d ago
W
2-1
vs FaZe
Dust2CacheAnubis
Aug 1
12d ago
W
2-0
vs Liquid
Dust2Anubis
Jul 30
14d ago
W
2-1
vs 100 Thieves
AnubisMirageDust2
Jul 26
18d ago
W
2-1
vs OG
CacheDust2Ancient
Jul 23
21d ago
L
1-2
vs Falcons
AnubisMirageDust2
Jun 20
54d ago
W
2-1
vs G2
OverpassDust2Mirage
Jun 19
55d ago
W
2-1
vs 9z
OverpassMirageDust2
Jun 13
61d ago
W
2-1
vs Aurora
Dust2AnubisNuke
Jun 12
62d ago
W
2-0
vs Natus Vincere
Dust2Anubis
Jun 11
63d ago
Player Matchups
Luminosity
Ratings
Spirit
LU
lux
RiflerADR 83.4KAST 70%
DO
donk
EntryADR 93.2KAST 76%
AZ
AZUWU
EntryADR 73.6KAST 73%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 76.2KAST 76%
AF
afro
AWPADR 70.9KAST 70%
TN
tN1R
RiflerADR 69.9KAST 73%
RA
Rainwaker
RiflerADR 72.9KAST 70%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 68.2KAST 72%
BY
Bymas
RiflerADR 61.0KAST 71%
ZO
zont1x
RiflerADR 69.3KAST 74%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Anubis
LUMI
10
–
13
SPIR
36%
64%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
Map Player Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Opening Kills
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
Luminosity
7-13
vs Aurora
Jun 11
13-2
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Apr 26
16-14
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Apr 24
13-11
vs Alliance
Mar 31
13-8
vs Passion UA
Mar 31
Spirit
13-11
vs FaZe
Aug 1
13-5
vs Liquid
Jul 30
13-11
vs 100 Thieves
Jul 26
14-16
vs Falcons
Jun 20
13-4
vs Aurora
Jun 12
Nuke
LUMI
10
–
13
SPIR
36%
64%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Map Player Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Opening Kills
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
Luminosity
3-13
vs GamerLegion
Aug 12
13-7
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 3
13-9
vs The MongolZ
Jun 14
10-13
vs Aurora
Jun 11
13-5
vs paiN
Jun 9
Spirit
10-13
vs MOUZ
Aug 2
13-5
vs Aurora
Jun 12
13-1
vs 9z
Jun 7
13-2
vs MOUZ
May 16
10-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
Cache
LUMI
10
–
13
SPIR
40%
60%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
LUMI
SPIR
After First Kill
LUMI
SPIR
Ranking
LUMI
SPIR
Round Win Rate
LUMI
SPIR
Overall Rating
LUMI
SPIR
Recent on Cache
Luminosity
no data
Spirit
9-13
vs FaZe
Aug 1
13-4
vs OG
Jul 23
More from Esports World Cup 2026
2 matches