Bo3 · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier
· 2026-07-24
Astralis
vs
HEROIC
✓
43%
57%
Series win probability
HERO
2–0
31%
HERO
2–1
25%
ASTR
2–1
25%
ASTR
2–0
19%
Actual result
Dust2
13–10
HERO
Ancient
13–10
HERO
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — HEROIC is slightly favored at 57% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.04 vs 1.00), stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#28 vs #21), a strong ancient (65% win probability). Astralis's best shot is inferno where they hold a 58% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
36%
Ancient · Inferno · Mirage
Scenario 2
35%
Inferno · Mirage · Nuke
Scenario 3
29%
Inferno · Mirage · Dust2
Ancient
ASTR
10
–
13
HERO
35%
65%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
Map Player Rating
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
Map Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Overall Rating
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Ancient
Astralis
13-16
vs HOTU
Jul 22
13-10
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
13-11
vs FOKUS
Jul 21
13-4
vs GamerLegion
Jun 6
8-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
HEROIC
13-6
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
13-11
vs Phantom
Jul 16
Inferno
ASTR
13
–
10
HERO
58%
42%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
Map Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Map Player Rating
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Inferno
Astralis
13-8
vs SINNERS
May 13
14-16
vs GamerLegion
May 1
13-2
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
10-13
vs Aurora
Mar 14
13-4
vs FURIA
Mar 10
HEROIC
13-10
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
13-11
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
Mirage
ASTR
16
–
14
HERO
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
Round Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Opening Kills
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Mirage
Astralis
13-11
vs SINNERS
May 13
3-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-5
vs FUT
Apr 30
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
8-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
HEROIC
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-9
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
Inferno
ASTR
13
–
10
HERO
58%
42%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
Map Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Map Player Rating
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Inferno
Astralis
13-8
vs SINNERS
May 13
14-16
vs GamerLegion
May 1
13-2
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
10-13
vs Aurora
Mar 14
13-4
vs FURIA
Mar 10
HEROIC
13-10
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
13-11
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
Mirage
ASTR
16
–
14
HERO
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
Round Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Opening Kills
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Mirage
Astralis
13-11
vs SINNERS
May 13
3-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-5
vs FUT
Apr 30
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
8-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
HEROIC
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-9
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
Nuke
ASTR
9
–
13
HERO
32%
68%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
Opening Kills
ASTR
HERO
Ranking
ASTR
HERO
Overall Rating
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
11-13
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
13-1
vs FOKUS
Jul 21
11-13
vs paiN
Jun 8
6-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 7
5-13
vs 9z
Jun 6
HEROIC
13-9
vs K27
Jul 18
9-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
14-16
vs Phantom
Jul 16
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
Inferno
ASTR
13
–
10
HERO
58%
42%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
Map Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Map Player Rating
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Inferno
Astralis
13-8
vs SINNERS
May 13
14-16
vs GamerLegion
May 1
13-2
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
10-13
vs Aurora
Mar 14
13-4
vs FURIA
Mar 10
HEROIC
13-10
vs FOKUS
Jul 23
13-11
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
Mirage
ASTR
16
–
14
HERO
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
Round Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Opening Kills
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Mirage
Astralis
13-11
vs SINNERS
May 13
3-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-5
vs FUT
Apr 30
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
8-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
HEROIC
13-10
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-9
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
Dust2
ASTR
16
–
14
HERO
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 11%
✗
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
Map Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Ranking
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Dust2
Astralis
10-13
vs FOKUS
Jul 21
8-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-4
vs Liquid
May 11
5-13
vs G2
Apr 29
3-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
HEROIC
8-13
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-11
vs Phantom
Jul 16
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Astralis
HEROIC
L
0-2
vs HOTU
CacheAncient
Jul 22
22d ago
W
2-1
vs Nemesis
NukeAncientCache
Jul 21
23d ago
W
2-1
vs FOKUS
Dust2AncientNuke
Jul 21
23d ago
L
0-2
vs paiN
NukeOverpass
Jun 8
66d ago
L
0-1
vs TYLOO
Nuke
Jun 7
67d ago
W
1-0
vs GamerLegion
Ancient
Jun 6
68d ago
L
0-1
vs 9z
Nuke
Jun 6
68d ago
W
2-0
vs SINNERS
MirageInferno
May 13
92d ago
L
0-2
vs GamerLegion
MirageAncient
May 13
92d ago
L
0-2
vs Legacy
Dust2Nuke
May 12
93d ago
W
2-0
vs Liquid
Dust2Ancient
May 11
94d ago
W
2-0
vs FOKUS
AncientInferno
Jul 23
21d ago
L
1-2
vs HOTU
MirageCacheDust2
Jul 21
23d ago
W
3-0
vs K27
NukeMirageDust2
Jul 18
26d ago
W
2-1
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
InfernoNukeMirage
Jul 17
27d ago
W
2-1
vs Phantom
AncientNukeDust2
Jul 16
28d ago
W
2-1
vs 3DMAX
InfernoCacheNuke
Jul 15
29d ago
Player Matchups
Astralis
Ratings
HEROIC
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 83.7KAST 71%
MA
MartinezSa
AWPADR 75.4KAST 74%
JA
jabbi
EntryADR 74.5KAST 69%
NI
nilo
EntryADR 77.7KAST 72%
RY
ryu
RiflerADR 69.7KAST 72%
BR
Brollan
RiflerADR 69.3KAST 71%
PH
phzy
AWPADR 65.1KAST 70%
SU
susp
RiflerADR 67.4KAST 72%
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 60.1KAST 68%
CH
Chr1zN
RiflerADR 69.0KAST 68%
Unpredicted Maps
4 maps
Nuke
ASTR
9
–
13
HERO
32%
68%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
Opening Kills
ASTR
HERO
Ranking
ASTR
HERO
Overall Rating
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
11-13
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
13-1
vs FOKUS
Jul 21
11-13
vs paiN
Jun 8
6-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 7
5-13
vs 9z
Jun 6
HEROIC
13-9
vs K27
Jul 18
9-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 17
14-16
vs Phantom
Jul 16
13-8
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
Anubis
ASTR
9
–
13
HERO
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
HERO
Map Firepower
ASTR
HERO
Ranking
ASTR
HERO
Overall Rating
ASTR
HERO
Weakest Player
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Anubis
Astralis
no data
HEROIC
no data
Cache
ASTR
11
–
13
HERO
41%
59%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
ASTR
HERO
Round Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Map Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Map Player Rating
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Cache
Astralis
14-16
vs HOTU
Jul 22
13-7
vs Nemesis
Jul 21
HEROIC
6-13
vs HOTU
Jul 21
8-13
vs 3DMAX
Jul 15
Dust2
ASTR
16
–
14
HERO
52%
48%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
HERO
T 5v4
ASTR
HERO
After First Kill
ASTR
HERO
Map Win Rate
ASTR
HERO
Ranking
ASTR
HERO
Recent on Dust2
Astralis
10-13
vs FOKUS
Jul 21
8-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-4
vs Liquid
May 11
5-13
vs G2
Apr 29
3-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
HEROIC
8-13
vs HOTU
Jul 21
13-11
vs K27
Jul 18
13-11
vs Phantom
Jul 16
More from StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier
3 matches