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Bo3  ·  DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · 2026-07-17
THUNDER dOWNUNDER ✓
vs
Ground Zero
91%
9%
Series win probability
TD 2–0 65%
TD 2–1 25%
GZ 2–1 7%
GZ 2–0 3%
Actual result
Dust2 13–10 TD
Anubis 13–7 TD
Model Insights
THUNDER dOWNUNDER is strongly favored at 91%, holding a map advantage on 2 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#55 vs #129), a strong anubis (93% win probability). Ground Zero's best shot is inferno where they hold a 56% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 54% Nuke · Anubis · Inferno
Scenario 2 27% Nuke · Anubis · Dust2
Scenario 3 19% Nuke · Anubis · Cache
Nuke
TD 13 – 6 GZ
90%
10%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Round Win Rate
TD
GZ
After First Kill
TD
GZ
Recent on Nuke
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-0 vs Rooster Jul 16
10-13 vs SemperFi May 27
10-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
16-13 vs SemperFi May 13
13-6 vs Haunted House May 13
Ground Zero
13-7 vs Arcade Jul 17
4-13 vs Lynn Vision Jul 10
13-2 vs Rooster Jun 18
13-4 vs MARKandLARRY Jun 15
13-1 vs Ding Cuts Jun 11
Anubis
TD 13 – 5 GZ
93%
7%
Win prob OT 1% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Kill
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Round Win Rate
TD
GZ
Recent on Anubis
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-4 vs Rooster Jul 16
10-13 vs FlyQuest Jun 4
13-5 vs Kaleido May 14
13-5 vs Haunted House May 13
13-7 vs Alter Ego May 12
Ground Zero
6-13 vs FlyQuest Jul 17
11-13 vs Rooster Jun 18
Inferno
TD 11 – 13 GZ
44%
56%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
After First Kill
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Round Win Rate
TD
GZ
Recent on Inferno
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-5 vs Mindfreak Jul 16
3-13 vs FlyQuest Jun 4
7-13 vs BIG Jun 3
13-6 vs MIBR Jun 2
5-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
Ground Zero
no data
Nuke
TD 13 – 6 GZ
90%
10%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Round Win Rate
TD
GZ
After First Kill
TD
GZ
Recent on Nuke
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-0 vs Rooster Jul 16
10-13 vs SemperFi May 27
10-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
16-13 vs SemperFi May 13
13-6 vs Haunted House May 13
Ground Zero
13-7 vs Arcade Jul 17
4-13 vs Lynn Vision Jul 10
13-2 vs Rooster Jun 18
13-4 vs MARKandLARRY Jun 15
13-1 vs Ding Cuts Jun 11
Anubis
TD 13 – 5 GZ
93%
7%
Win prob OT 1% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Kill
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Round Win Rate
TD
GZ
Recent on Anubis
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-4 vs Rooster Jul 16
10-13 vs FlyQuest Jun 4
13-5 vs Kaleido May 14
13-5 vs Haunted House May 13
13-7 vs Alter Ego May 12
Ground Zero
6-13 vs FlyQuest Jul 17
11-13 vs Rooster Jun 18
Dust2
TD 13 – 7 GZ
79%
21%
Win prob OT 7% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Opening Kills
TD
GZ
Round Win Rate
TD
GZ
Recent on Dust2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
11-13 vs B8 Jun 2
9-13 vs SemperFi May 27
13-9 vs Lynn Vision May 16
17-19 vs Haunted House May 13
13-8 vs Alter Ego May 12
Ground Zero
7-13 vs FlyQuest Jul 17
13-6 vs Arcade Jul 17
13-7 vs Arcade Jul 16
8-13 vs Lynn Vision Jul 10
16-13 vs Rooster Jun 16
Nuke
TD 13 – 6 GZ
90%
10%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Round Win Rate
TD
GZ
After First Kill
TD
GZ
Recent on Nuke
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-0 vs Rooster Jul 16
10-13 vs SemperFi May 27
10-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
16-13 vs SemperFi May 13
13-6 vs Haunted House May 13
Ground Zero
13-7 vs Arcade Jul 17
4-13 vs Lynn Vision Jul 10
13-2 vs Rooster Jun 18
13-4 vs MARKandLARRY Jun 15
13-1 vs Ding Cuts Jun 11
Anubis
TD 13 – 5 GZ
93%
7%
Win prob OT 1% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Kill
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Round Win Rate
TD
GZ
Recent on Anubis
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-4 vs Rooster Jul 16
10-13 vs FlyQuest Jun 4
13-5 vs Kaleido May 14
13-5 vs Haunted House May 13
13-7 vs Alter Ego May 12
Ground Zero
6-13 vs FlyQuest Jul 17
11-13 vs Rooster Jun 18
Cache
TD 13 – 6 GZ
89%
11%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Side Balance
TD
GZ
Opening Score
TD
GZ
Recent Form (3m)
TD
GZ
Recent on Cache
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
no data
Ground Zero
no data
Recent Results last 11 matches
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Ground Zero
W 1-0 vs Mindfreak Inferno Jul 16 28d ago
W 2-0 vs Rooster AnubisNuke Jul 16 28d ago
L 0-2 vs FlyQuest AnubisInferno Jun 4 70d ago
L 0-1 vs BIG Inferno Jun 3 71d ago
W 1-0 vs MIBR Inferno Jun 2 72d ago
L 0-1 vs B8 Dust2 Jun 2 72d ago
L 0-2 vs SemperFi Dust2Nuke May 27 78d ago
L 1-2 vs Lynn Vision Dust2NukeInferno May 16 89d ago
W 2-1 vs Kaleido AnubisAncientInferno May 14 91d ago
W 2-0 vs SemperFi InfernoNuke May 13 92d ago
W 2-1 vs Haunted House AnubisDust2Nuke May 13 92d ago
W 1-0 vs Arcade Dust2 Jul 16 28d ago
L 0-2 vs Lynn Vision NukeDust2 Jul 10 34d ago
L 1-2 vs Rooster NukeAnubisMirage Jun 18 56d ago
W 2-0 vs Rooster MirageDust2 Jun 16 58d ago
W 2-0 vs MARKandLARRY Dust2Nuke Jun 15 59d ago
W 2-0 vs Ding Cuts MirageNuke Jun 11 63d ago
W 2-1 vs Masked Regime Dust2MirageNuke Jun 10 64d ago
Player Matchups
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Ratings
Ground Zero
AS
asap
RiflerADR 83.6KAST 77%
1.26 vs 1.20
SL
sliimey
RiflerADR 80.1KAST 75%
AL
aliStair
AWPADR 74.4KAST 73%
1.15 vs 1.09
AP
apocdud
AWPADR 75.6KAST 72%
LI
Liazz
EntryADR 73.9KAST 75%
1.14 vs 1.07
HA
hazr
EntryADR 69.0KAST 71%
TJ
TjP
RiflerADR 72.5KAST 72%
1.03 vs 0.97
OM
Omichella
RiflerADR 70.4KAST 70%
DE
dexter
RiflerADR 75.4KAST 68%
0.94 vs 0.97
VI
vision
RiflerADR 71.1KAST 66%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Ancient
TD 13 – 5 GZ
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
After First Kill
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Map Player Rating
TD
GZ
Recent on Ancient
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-16 vs Kaleido May 14
13-5 vs low cortisol Apr 27
13-6 vs SemperFi Mar 16
13-10 vs SemperFi Mar 16
16-19 vs SemperFi Mar 14
Ground Zero
no data
Cache
TD 13 – 6 GZ
89%
11%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Side Balance
TD
GZ
Opening Score
TD
GZ
Recent Form (3m)
TD
GZ
Recent on Cache
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
no data
Ground Zero
no data
Dust2
TD 13 – 7 GZ
79%
21%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TD
GZ
After First Death
TD
GZ
Ranking
TD
GZ
Opening Kills
TD
GZ
Round Win Rate
TD
GZ
Recent on Dust2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
11-13 vs B8 Jun 2
9-13 vs SemperFi May 27
13-9 vs Lynn Vision May 16
17-19 vs Haunted House May 13
13-8 vs Alter Ego May 12
Ground Zero
7-13 vs FlyQuest Jul 17
13-6 vs Arcade Jul 17
13-7 vs Arcade Jul 16
8-13 vs Lynn Vision Jul 10
16-13 vs Rooster Jun 16
More from DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 3 matches
FlyQuest over Ground Zero 86% Arcade over DXA 72% Ground Zero over Arcade 86%