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Bo3  ·  DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · 2026-07-17
Ground Zero ✓
vs
Arcade
86%
14%
Series win probability
GZ 2–0 75%
ARCA 2–1 13%
GZ 2–1 11%
ARCA 2–0 2%
Actual result
Mirage 13–10 ARCA
Dust2 13–6 GZ
Nuke 13–7 GZ
Model Insights
Ground Zero is strongly favored at 86%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#147 vs #244), a strong nuke (93% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 44% Nuke · Mirage · Dust2
Scenario 2 31% Nuke · Mirage · Anubis
Scenario 3 25% Nuke · Mirage · Cache
Nuke
GZ 13 – 5 ARCA
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Map Player Rating
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Nuke
Ground Zero
4-13 vs Lynn Vision Jul 10
13-2 vs Rooster Jun 18
13-4 vs MARKandLARRY Jun 15
13-1 vs Ding Cuts Jun 11
13-9 vs Masked Regime Jun 10
Arcade
13-6 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
13-11 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-11 vs Rooster Apr 7
22-18 vs mindfreak Apr 6
13-7 vs Time Waves Apr 5
Mirage
GZ 13 – 6 ARCA
88%
12%
Win prob OT 3% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Map Player Rating
GZ
ARCA
Round Win Rate
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Mirage
Ground Zero
11-13 vs Rooster Jun 18
13-10 vs Rooster Jun 16
13-9 vs Ding Cuts Jun 11
13-6 vs Masked Regime Jun 10
Arcade
7-13 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-5 vs mindfreak Apr 6
8-13 vs Rooster Mar 24
3-13 vs SemperFi Mar 16
10-13 vs SemperFi Mar 15
Dust2
GZ 13 – 7 ARCA
84%
16%
Win prob OT 5% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Round Win Rate
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Dust2
Ground Zero
13-7 vs Arcade Jul 16
8-13 vs Lynn Vision Jul 10
16-13 vs Rooster Jun 16
16-13 vs MARKandLARRY Jun 15
11-13 vs Masked Regime Jun 10
Arcade
7-13 vs Ground Zero Jul 16
7-13 vs DXA Apr 11
10-13 vs Rooster Apr 7
7-13 vs mindfreak Apr 6
13-10 vs Time Waves Apr 5
Nuke
GZ 13 – 5 ARCA
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Map Player Rating
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Nuke
Ground Zero
4-13 vs Lynn Vision Jul 10
13-2 vs Rooster Jun 18
13-4 vs MARKandLARRY Jun 15
13-1 vs Ding Cuts Jun 11
13-9 vs Masked Regime Jun 10
Arcade
13-6 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
13-11 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-11 vs Rooster Apr 7
22-18 vs mindfreak Apr 6
13-7 vs Time Waves Apr 5
Mirage
GZ 13 – 6 ARCA
88%
12%
Win prob OT 3% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Map Player Rating
GZ
ARCA
Round Win Rate
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Mirage
Ground Zero
11-13 vs Rooster Jun 18
13-10 vs Rooster Jun 16
13-9 vs Ding Cuts Jun 11
13-6 vs Masked Regime Jun 10
Arcade
7-13 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-5 vs mindfreak Apr 6
8-13 vs Rooster Mar 24
3-13 vs SemperFi Mar 16
10-13 vs SemperFi Mar 15
Anubis
GZ 13 – 10 ARCA
63%
37%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
Round Win Rate
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
Ban Rate
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Anubis
Ground Zero
11-13 vs Rooster Jun 18
Arcade
13-5 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
4-13 vs mindfreak Mar 12
0-13 vs mindfreak Mar 12
Nuke
GZ 13 – 5 ARCA
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Map Player Rating
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Nuke
Ground Zero
4-13 vs Lynn Vision Jul 10
13-2 vs Rooster Jun 18
13-4 vs MARKandLARRY Jun 15
13-1 vs Ding Cuts Jun 11
13-9 vs Masked Regime Jun 10
Arcade
13-6 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
13-11 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-11 vs Rooster Apr 7
22-18 vs mindfreak Apr 6
13-7 vs Time Waves Apr 5
Mirage
GZ 13 – 6 ARCA
88%
12%
Win prob OT 3% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Map Player Rating
GZ
ARCA
Round Win Rate
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Mirage
Ground Zero
11-13 vs Rooster Jun 18
13-10 vs Rooster Jun 16
13-9 vs Ding Cuts Jun 11
13-6 vs Masked Regime Jun 10
Arcade
7-13 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-5 vs mindfreak Apr 6
8-13 vs Rooster Mar 24
3-13 vs SemperFi Mar 16
10-13 vs SemperFi Mar 15
Cache
GZ 8 – 13 ARCA
26%
74%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Side Balance
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Cache
Ground Zero
no data
Arcade
no data
Recent Results last 11 matches
Ground Zero
Arcade
W 1-0 vs Arcade Dust2 Jul 16 28d ago
L 0-2 vs Lynn Vision NukeDust2 Jul 10 34d ago
L 1-2 vs Rooster NukeAnubisMirage Jun 18 56d ago
W 2-0 vs Rooster MirageDust2 Jun 16 58d ago
W 2-0 vs MARKandLARRY Dust2Nuke Jun 15 59d ago
W 2-0 vs Ding Cuts MirageNuke Jun 11 63d ago
W 2-1 vs Masked Regime Dust2MirageNuke Jun 10 64d ago
L 0-1 vs Ground Zero Dust2 Jul 16 28d ago
L 1-2 vs DXA OverpassInfernoDust2 Apr 11 124d ago
W 2-0 vs MGLBROS AnubisNuke Apr 10 125d ago
L 1-2 vs Abyssal OverpassNukeMirage Apr 10 125d ago
L 1-2 vs Rooster Dust2NukeOverpass Apr 7 128d ago
W 2-1 vs mindfreak NukeDust2Mirage Apr 6 129d ago
W 2-0 vs Time Waves NukeDust2 Apr 5 130d ago
L 1-2 vs Abyssal NukeAncientOverpass Apr 3 132d ago
L 0-2 vs Rooster MirageOverpass Mar 24 142d ago
L 0-2 vs Rooster NukeOverpass Mar 21 145d ago
W 2-1 vs mindfreak Dust2InfernoOverpass Mar 16 150d ago
Player Matchups
Ground Zero
Ratings
Arcade
SL
sliimey
RiflerADR 80.2KAST 74%
1.19 vs 1.31
KR
Kras
RiflerADR 89.0KAST 71%
HA
hazr
EntryADR 69.7KAST 71%
1.08 vs 1.12
74
74LOR
RiflerADR 75.4KAST 70%
AP
apocdud
AWPADR 74.3KAST 71%
1.06 vs 1.07
WI
Winnieeeee
RiflerADR 71.6KAST 72%
OM
Omichella
RiflerADR 70.4KAST 70%
0.98 vs 0.99
N1
N1ghtraid
AWPADR 69.5KAST 70%
VI
vision
RiflerADR 71.1KAST 66%
0.97 vs 0.87
ME
Mechanical
EntryADR 59.0KAST 73%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Inferno
GZ 13 – 6 ARCA
89%
11%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Map Player Rating
GZ
ARCA
Ban Rate
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Inferno
Ground Zero
no data
Arcade
9-13 vs DXA Apr 11
13-9 vs mindfreak Mar 16
Cache
GZ 8 – 13 ARCA
26%
74%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Kill
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Side Balance
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Cache
Ground Zero
no data
Arcade
no data
Ancient
GZ 9 – 13 ARCA
33%
67%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
Map Player Rating
GZ
ARCA
Opening Kills
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Ancient
Ground Zero
no data
Arcade
10-13 vs Abyssal Apr 3
13-9 vs Ground Zero Mar 16
Anubis
GZ 13 – 10 ARCA
63%
37%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
GZ
ARCA
Round Win Rate
GZ
ARCA
Ranking
GZ
ARCA
After First Death
GZ
ARCA
Ban Rate
GZ
ARCA
Recent on Anubis
Ground Zero
11-13 vs Rooster Jun 18
Arcade
13-5 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
4-13 vs mindfreak Mar 12
0-13 vs mindfreak Mar 12
More from DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 3 matches
FlyQuest over Ground Zero 86% Arcade over DXA 72% THUNDER dOWNUNDER over Ground Zero 91%