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Bo3  ·  DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · 2026-07-17
DXA
vs
Arcade ✓
28%
72%
Series win probability
ARCA 2–0 39%
ARCA 2–1 33%
DXA 2–1 15%
DXA 2–0 13%
Actual result
Dust2 13–9 ARCA
Cache 13–8 ARCA
Model Insights
Arcade is strongly favored at 72%, holding a map advantage on 2 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#241 vs #280), a strong nuke (67% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 40% Inferno · Nuke · Ancient
Scenario 2 32% Nuke · Ancient · Cache
Scenario 3 28% Nuke · Ancient · Dust2
Inferno
DXA 11 – 13 ARCA
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
Map Player Rating
DXA
ARCA
Ban Rate
DXA
ARCA
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Inferno
DXA
1-13 vs FlyQuest Jul 16
13-1 vs Rooster Jun 17
13-5 vs MARKandLARRY Jun 16
11-13 vs Rooster Jun 15
6-13 vs Abyssal Apr 17
Arcade
9-13 vs DXA Apr 11
13-9 vs mindfreak Mar 16
Nuke
DXA 9 – 13 ARCA
33%
67%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Map Player Rating
DXA
ARCA
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
Map Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Nuke
DXA
16-14 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-9 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
Arcade
13-6 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
13-11 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-11 vs Rooster Apr 7
22-18 vs mindfreak Apr 6
13-7 vs Time Waves Apr 5
Ancient
DXA 16 – 14 ARCA
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
Map Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
Round Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Ancient
DXA
13-8 vs Ding Cuts Jun 12
13-8 vs Masked Regime Jun 11
11-13 vs Ding Cuts Jun 10
6-13 vs Ding Cuts Apr 17
8-13 vs Abyssal Apr 10
Arcade
10-13 vs Abyssal Apr 3
13-9 vs Ground Zero Mar 16
Nuke
DXA 9 – 13 ARCA
33%
67%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Map Player Rating
DXA
ARCA
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
Map Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Nuke
DXA
16-14 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-9 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
Arcade
13-6 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
13-11 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-11 vs Rooster Apr 7
22-18 vs mindfreak Apr 6
13-7 vs Time Waves Apr 5
Ancient
DXA 16 – 14 ARCA
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
Map Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
Round Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Ancient
DXA
13-8 vs Ding Cuts Jun 12
13-8 vs Masked Regime Jun 11
11-13 vs Ding Cuts Jun 10
6-13 vs Ding Cuts Apr 17
8-13 vs Abyssal Apr 10
Arcade
10-13 vs Abyssal Apr 3
13-9 vs Ground Zero Mar 16
Cache
DXA 9 – 13 ARCA
33%
67%
Win prob OT 10% ✗
Key factors
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Opening Score
DXA
ARCA
Overall Rating
DXA
ARCA
Sniper Score
DXA
ARCA
Days With Lineup Team
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Cache
DXA
no data
Arcade
no data
Nuke
DXA 9 – 13 ARCA
33%
67%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Map Player Rating
DXA
ARCA
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
Map Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Nuke
DXA
16-14 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-9 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
Arcade
13-6 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
13-11 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-11 vs Rooster Apr 7
22-18 vs mindfreak Apr 6
13-7 vs Time Waves Apr 5
Ancient
DXA 16 – 14 ARCA
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
Map Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
Round Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Ancient
DXA
13-8 vs Ding Cuts Jun 12
13-8 vs Masked Regime Jun 11
11-13 vs Ding Cuts Jun 10
6-13 vs Ding Cuts Apr 17
8-13 vs Abyssal Apr 10
Arcade
10-13 vs Abyssal Apr 3
13-9 vs Ground Zero Mar 16
Dust2
DXA 7 – 13 ARCA
10%
90%
Win prob OT 5% ✗
Key factors
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Map Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
T 5v4
DXA
ARCA
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Dust2
DXA
8-13 vs Rooster Jun 17
6-13 vs Rooster Jun 15
13-11 vs Masked Regime Jun 11
13-7 vs Arcade Apr 11
13-7 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
Arcade
7-13 vs DXA Apr 11
10-13 vs Rooster Apr 7
7-13 vs mindfreak Apr 6
13-10 vs Time Waves Apr 5
16-19 vs mindfreak Mar 16
Recent Results last 11 matches
DXA
Arcade
L 0-1 vs FlyQuest Inferno Jul 16 28d ago
L 1-2 vs Rooster InfernoDust2Anubis Jun 17 57d ago
W 2-1 vs MARKandLARRY AnubisInfernoOverpass Jun 16 58d ago
L 0-2 vs Rooster InfernoDust2 Jun 15 59d ago
W 2-1 vs Ding Cuts AncientAnubisOverpass Jun 12 62d ago
W 2-0 vs Masked Regime Dust2Ancient Jun 11 63d ago
L 0-2 vs Ding Cuts AncientOverpass Jun 10 64d ago
L 0-2 vs Ding Cuts OverpassAncient Apr 17 118d ago
L 0-2 vs Abyssal InfernoMirage Apr 17 118d ago
W 2-1 vs Arcade OverpassInfernoDust2 Apr 11 124d ago
L 1-2 vs Abyssal AncientNukeMirage Apr 10 125d ago
L 1-2 vs DXA OverpassInfernoDust2 Apr 11 124d ago
W 2-0 vs MGLBROS AnubisNuke Apr 10 125d ago
L 1-2 vs Abyssal OverpassNukeMirage Apr 10 125d ago
L 1-2 vs Rooster Dust2NukeOverpass Apr 7 128d ago
W 2-1 vs mindfreak NukeDust2Mirage Apr 6 129d ago
W 2-0 vs Time Waves NukeDust2 Apr 5 130d ago
L 1-2 vs Abyssal NukeAncientOverpass Apr 3 132d ago
L 0-2 vs Rooster MirageOverpass Mar 24 142d ago
L 0-2 vs Rooster NukeOverpass Mar 21 145d ago
W 2-1 vs mindfreak Dust2InfernoOverpass Mar 16 150d ago
L 0-1 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Nuke Mar 16 150d ago
Player Matchups
DXA
Ratings
Arcade
MY
Myst
EntryADR 80.9KAST 72%
1.10 vs 1.00
WI
Winnieeeee
AWPADR 68.3KAST 71%
ZO
Zoot
RiflerADR 77.7KAST 74%
1.10 vs 1.00
N1
N1ghtraid
Rifler
JI
JiNxZiE
RiflerADR 75.3KAST 72%
1.07 vs 1.00
ME
Mechanical
Rifler
SU
Supers
AWPADR 62.2KAST 66%
0.93 vs 1.00
74
74LOR
Rifler
C4
c4put
RiflerADR 68.8KAST 71%
0.92 vs 1.00
KR
Kras
Rifler
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Dust2
DXA 7 – 13 ARCA
10%
90%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Map Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
T 5v4
DXA
ARCA
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Dust2
DXA
8-13 vs Rooster Jun 17
6-13 vs Rooster Jun 15
13-11 vs Masked Regime Jun 11
13-7 vs Arcade Apr 11
13-7 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
Arcade
7-13 vs DXA Apr 11
10-13 vs Rooster Apr 7
7-13 vs mindfreak Apr 6
13-10 vs Time Waves Apr 5
16-19 vs mindfreak Mar 16
Mirage
DXA 8 – 13 ARCA
19%
81%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
DXA
ARCA
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Round Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
Ban Rate
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Mirage
DXA
8-13 vs Abyssal Apr 17
9-13 vs Abyssal Apr 10
Arcade
7-13 vs Abyssal Apr 10
13-5 vs mindfreak Apr 6
8-13 vs Rooster Mar 24
3-13 vs SemperFi Mar 16
10-13 vs SemperFi Mar 15
Cache
DXA 9 – 13 ARCA
33%
67%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Opening Score
DXA
ARCA
Overall Rating
DXA
ARCA
Sniper Score
DXA
ARCA
Days With Lineup Team
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Cache
DXA
no data
Arcade
no data
Anubis
DXA 14 – 16 ARCA
48%
52%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
DXA
ARCA
T 5v4
DXA
ARCA
Map Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
Ranking
DXA
ARCA
Round Win Rate
DXA
ARCA
Recent on Anubis
DXA
5-13 vs Rooster Jun 17
13-16 vs MARKandLARRY Jun 16
12-16 vs Ding Cuts Jun 12
Arcade
13-5 vs MGLBROS Apr 10
4-13 vs mindfreak Mar 12
0-13 vs mindfreak Mar 12
More from DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 3 matches
FlyQuest over Ground Zero 86% Ground Zero over Arcade 86% THUNDER dOWNUNDER over Ground Zero 91%