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Bo3  ·  Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · 2026-07-29
Fortress
vs
STATE ✓
3%
97%
Series win probability
STAT 2–0 78%
STAT 2–1 19%
FORT 2–1 2%
FORT 2–0 1%
Actual result
Nuke 13–10 STAT
Ancient 13–2 STAT
Model Insights
STATE is strongly favored at 97%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.11 vs 0.92), a significant ranking advantage (#69 vs #192), a strong nuke (98% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 43% Inferno · Nuke · Ancient
Scenario 2 36% Nuke · Ancient · Cache
Scenario 3 21% Nuke · Ancient · Anubis
Inferno
FORT 5 – 13 STAT
7%
93%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Round Win Rate
FORT
STAT
Recent on Inferno
Fortress
2-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 21
13-4 vs DONSTU Jun 30
0-13 vs Endless Journey Jun 26
6-13 vs STATE May 24
14-16 vs Invicta May 23
STATE
19-22 vs Lazer Cats Jul 26
13-8 vs MASQ Jun 13
Nuke
FORT 3 – 13 STAT
2%
98%
Win prob OT 0% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Round Win Rate
FORT
STAT
Recent on Nuke
Fortress
5-13 vs STATE Jul 25
16-13 vs Enjoy Jul 22
7-13 vs STATE May 24
STATE
13-5 vs Fortress Jul 25
13-11 vs MASONIC Jun 13
10-13 vs MASQ Jun 13
13-3 vs Washed Jun 12
Ancient
FORT 8 – 13 STAT
34%
66%
Win prob OT 10% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Map Win Rate
FORT
STAT
Opening Kills
FORT
STAT
Recent on Ancient
Fortress
16-14 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 26
3-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 21
16-14 vs Strael Bora May 24
13-7 vs 95 Vikings May 23
6-13 vs AaB Mar 14
STATE
9-13 vs Lazer Cats Jul 26
10-13 vs MASONIC Jun 13
13-7 vs Sashi Academy Jun 12
Nuke
FORT 3 – 13 STAT
2%
98%
Win prob OT 0% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Round Win Rate
FORT
STAT
Recent on Nuke
Fortress
5-13 vs STATE Jul 25
16-13 vs Enjoy Jul 22
7-13 vs STATE May 24
STATE
13-5 vs Fortress Jul 25
13-11 vs MASONIC Jun 13
10-13 vs MASQ Jun 13
13-3 vs Washed Jun 12
Ancient
FORT 8 – 13 STAT
34%
66%
Win prob OT 10% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Map Win Rate
FORT
STAT
Opening Kills
FORT
STAT
Recent on Ancient
Fortress
16-14 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 26
3-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 21
16-14 vs Strael Bora May 24
13-7 vs 95 Vikings May 23
6-13 vs AaB Mar 14
STATE
9-13 vs Lazer Cats Jul 26
10-13 vs MASONIC Jun 13
13-7 vs Sashi Academy Jun 12
Cache
FORT 4 – 13 STAT
7%
93%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Round Win Rate
FORT
STAT
Map Player Rating
FORT
STAT
Recent on Cache
Fortress
10-13 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 26
7-13 vs STATE Jul 25
2-13 vs Enjoy Jul 22
5-13 vs DONSTU Jun 30
STATE
13-7 vs Fortress Jul 25
Nuke
FORT 3 – 13 STAT
2%
98%
Win prob OT 0% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Round Win Rate
FORT
STAT
Recent on Nuke
Fortress
5-13 vs STATE Jul 25
16-13 vs Enjoy Jul 22
7-13 vs STATE May 24
STATE
13-5 vs Fortress Jul 25
13-11 vs MASONIC Jun 13
10-13 vs MASQ Jun 13
13-3 vs Washed Jun 12
Ancient
FORT 8 – 13 STAT
34%
66%
Win prob OT 10% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Map Win Rate
FORT
STAT
Opening Kills
FORT
STAT
Recent on Ancient
Fortress
16-14 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 26
3-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 21
16-14 vs Strael Bora May 24
13-7 vs 95 Vikings May 23
6-13 vs AaB Mar 14
STATE
9-13 vs Lazer Cats Jul 26
10-13 vs MASONIC Jun 13
13-7 vs Sashi Academy Jun 12
Anubis
FORT 6 – 13 STAT
12%
88%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Map Player Rating
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Opening Kills
FORT
STAT
Recent on Anubis
Fortress
13-11 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 26
7-13 vs DONSTU Jun 30
STATE
13-16 vs Washed Jun 12
Recent Results last 11 matches
Fortress
STATE
W 2-1 vs Inner Circle Academy CacheAnubisAncient Jul 26 18d ago
L 0-2 vs STATE CacheNuke Jul 25 19d ago
L 1-2 vs Enjoy NukeMirageCache Jul 22 22d ago
L 0-2 vs SAW Youngsters AncientInferno Jul 21 23d ago
L 1-2 vs DONSTU InfernoAnubisCache Jun 30 44d ago
L 0-2 vs Endless Journey MirageInferno Jun 26 48d ago
W 2-0 vs Strael Bora AncientOverpass May 24 81d ago
L 0-2 vs STATE InfernoNuke May 24 81d ago
L 0-2 vs Invicta MirageInferno May 23 82d ago
W 2-0 vs 95 Vikings Dust2Ancient May 23 82d ago
W 2-0 vs Sashi Academy OverpassInferno May 23 82d ago
L 0-2 vs Lazer Cats InfernoAncient Jul 26 18d ago
W 2-0 vs Fortress CacheNuke Jul 25 19d ago
L 1-2 vs MASONIC NukeAncientOverpass Jun 13 61d ago
W 2-1 vs MASQ MirageNukeInferno Jun 13 61d ago
W 1-0 vs Sashi Academy Ancient Jun 12 62d ago
W 2-1 vs Washed AnubisNukeMirage Jun 12 62d ago
Player Matchups
Fortress
Ratings
STATE
GR
GrEnNiE
RiflerADR 72.5KAST 67%
1.01 vs 1.15
ZA
Zanto
RiflerADR 74.0KAST 77%
BQ
BqreBedre
RiflerADR 75.2KAST 73%
1.00 vs 1.13
SL
sL1m3
AWPADR 77.8KAST 72%
BR
Brand
EntryADR 76.1KAST 69%
0.98 vs 1.11
KW
kwezz
EntryADR 79.9KAST 74%
AS
As K
RiflerADR 67.6KAST 64%
0.89 vs 1.02
PA
Patti
RiflerADR 73.4KAST 71%
K1
K1ngShield
AWPADR 58.8KAST 59%
0.74 vs 0.96
QU
Queenix
RiflerADR 65.5KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Mirage
FORT 3 – 13 STAT
2%
98%
Win prob OT 0%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Map Player Rating
FORT
STAT
Recent on Mirage
Fortress
2-13 vs Enjoy Jul 22
3-13 vs Endless Journey Jun 26
9-13 vs Invicta May 23
STATE
13-4 vs MASQ Jun 13
13-5 vs Washed Jun 12
Cache
FORT 4 – 13 STAT
7%
93%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Round Win Rate
FORT
STAT
Map Player Rating
FORT
STAT
Recent on Cache
Fortress
10-13 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 26
7-13 vs STATE Jul 25
2-13 vs Enjoy Jul 22
5-13 vs DONSTU Jun 30
STATE
13-7 vs Fortress Jul 25
Anubis
FORT 6 – 13 STAT
12%
88%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FORT
STAT
Ranking
FORT
STAT
Map Player Rating
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Opening Kills
FORT
STAT
Recent on Anubis
Fortress
13-11 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 26
7-13 vs DONSTU Jun 30
STATE
13-16 vs Washed Jun 12
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