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Bo3  ·  BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · 2026-07-21
Nemesis
vs
Astralis
65%
35%
Series win probability
NEME 2–0 41%
NEME 2–1 24%
ASTR 2–1 23%
ASTR 2–0 11%
Actual result
Nuke 13–11 NEME
Ancient 13–10 ASTR
Cache 13–7 ASTR
Model Insights
Nemesis has a moderate edge at 65%, favored on 3 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.09 vs 0.97), stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#31 vs #21), a strong nuke (81% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 41% Nuke · Ancient · Mirage
Scenario 2 32% Nuke · Ancient · Inferno
Scenario 3 27% Nuke · Ancient · Cache
Nuke
NEME 13 7 ASTR
81%
19%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
Nemesis
13-8 vs Alliance Jul 9
13-10 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-7 vs INFINITE Jun 16
13-8 vs CYBERSHOKE Jun 15
13-6 vs Gentle Mates May 31
Astralis
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
5-13 vs 9z Jun 6
6-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-10 vs FUT Apr 30
Ancient
NEME 13 11 ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Opening Kills
NEME
ASTR
Map Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Nemesis
7-13 vs Alliance Jul 9
13-10 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
13-16 vs BetBoom Jul 3
13-10 vs B8 Jul 2
7-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
Astralis
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-11 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
16-14 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
Mirage
NEME 13 9 ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
Nemesis
13-10 vs BetBoom Jul 3
13-11 vs TDK Jun 20
13-10 vs TDK Jun 17
13-4 vs INFINITE Jun 16
13-5 vs FOKUS May 31
Astralis
13-11 vs SINNERS May 13
3-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-5 vs FUT Apr 30
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
8-13 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
Nuke
NEME 13 7 ASTR
81%
19%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
Nemesis
13-8 vs Alliance Jul 9
13-10 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-7 vs INFINITE Jun 16
13-8 vs CYBERSHOKE Jun 15
13-6 vs Gentle Mates May 31
Astralis
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
5-13 vs 9z Jun 6
6-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-10 vs FUT Apr 30
Ancient
NEME 13 11 ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Opening Kills
NEME
ASTR
Map Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Nemesis
7-13 vs Alliance Jul 9
13-10 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
13-16 vs BetBoom Jul 3
13-10 vs B8 Jul 2
7-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
Astralis
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-11 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
16-14 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
Inferno
NEME 13 10 ASTR
59%
41%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
T 5v4
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
Nemesis
7-13 vs Alliance Jul 9
9-13 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
13-10 vs Luminosity Jul 1
6-13 vs TDK Jun 17
13-8 vs Gentle Mates May 31
Astralis
13-8 vs SINNERS May 13
14-16 vs GamerLegion May 1
13-2 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
10-13 vs Aurora Mar 14
13-4 vs FURIA Mar 10
Nuke
NEME 13 7 ASTR
81%
19%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
Nemesis
13-8 vs Alliance Jul 9
13-10 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-7 vs INFINITE Jun 16
13-8 vs CYBERSHOKE Jun 15
13-6 vs Gentle Mates May 31
Astralis
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
5-13 vs 9z Jun 6
6-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-10 vs FUT Apr 30
Ancient
NEME 13 11 ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Opening Kills
NEME
ASTR
Map Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Nemesis
7-13 vs Alliance Jul 9
13-10 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
13-16 vs BetBoom Jul 3
13-10 vs B8 Jul 2
7-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
Astralis
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-11 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
16-14 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
Cache
NEME 11 13 ASTR
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Opening Score
NEME
ASTR
Side Balance
NEME
ASTR
Elo Diff
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Cache
Nemesis
no data
Astralis
no data
Recent Results last 11 matches
Nemesis
Astralis
L 1-2 vs Alliance NukeInfernoAncient Jul 9 35d ago
W 2-1 vs EYEBALLERS AncientInfernoDust2 Jul 4 40d ago
L 1-2 vs BetBoom MirageDust2Ancient Jul 3 41d ago
W 1-0 vs B8 Ancient Jul 2 42d ago
W 1-0 vs Luminosity Inferno Jul 1 43d ago
L 1-2 vs TDK MirageOverpassDust2 Jun 20 54d ago
W 2-1 vs TDK OverpassInfernoMirage Jun 17 57d ago
L 1-2 vs Nuclear TigeRES NukeDust2Ancient Jun 17 57d ago
W 2-0 vs INFINITE MirageNuke Jun 16 58d ago
W 2-0 vs CYBERSHOKE AncientNuke Jun 15 59d ago
W 2-0 vs Gentle Mates NukeInferno May 31 74d ago
L 0-2 vs paiN NukeOverpass Jun 8 66d ago
L 0-1 vs TYLOO Nuke Jun 7 67d ago
W 1-0 vs GamerLegion Ancient Jun 6 68d ago
L 0-1 vs 9z Nuke Jun 6 68d ago
W 2-0 vs SINNERS MirageInferno May 13 92d ago
L 0-2 vs GamerLegion MirageAncient May 13 92d ago
L 0-2 vs Legacy Dust2Nuke May 12 93d ago
W 2-0 vs Liquid Dust2Ancient May 11 94d ago
L 0-2 vs GamerLegion OverpassInferno May 1 104d ago
W 2-0 vs FUT MirageNuke Apr 30 105d ago
L 0-2 vs G2 Dust2Overpass Apr 29 106d ago
Player Matchups
Nemesis
Ratings
Astralis
R3
r3salt
RiflerADR 85.3KAST 74%
1.21 vs 1.15
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 81.7KAST 70%
SD
Sdaim
EntryADR 78.4KAST 73%
1.15 vs 1.02
JA
jabbi
EntryADR 73.8KAST 67%
MA
mag1k3Y
AWPADR 65.9KAST 74%
1.03 vs 0.93
RY
ryu
RiflerADR 70.1KAST 69%
SE
SELLTER
RiflerADR 68.6KAST 72%
1.02 vs 0.89
PH
phzy
AWPADR 62.5KAST 67%
TE
tex1y
RiflerADR 73.1KAST 74%
1.02 vs 0.88
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 62.5KAST 68%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Dust2
NEME 13 8 ASTR
63%
37%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Map Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
Nemesis
22-19 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
6-13 vs BetBoom Jul 3
7-13 vs TDK Jun 20
9-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-9 vs FOKUS May 31
Astralis
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
3-13 vs FUT Apr 11
13-11 vs 3DMAX Apr 10
Inferno
NEME 13 10 ASTR
59%
41%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
T 5v4
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
Nemesis
7-13 vs Alliance Jul 9
9-13 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
13-10 vs Luminosity Jul 1
6-13 vs TDK Jun 17
13-8 vs Gentle Mates May 31
Astralis
13-8 vs SINNERS May 13
14-16 vs GamerLegion May 1
13-2 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
10-13 vs Aurora Mar 14
13-4 vs FURIA Mar 10
Cache
NEME 11 13 ASTR
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Opening Score
NEME
ASTR
Side Balance
NEME
ASTR
Elo Diff
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Cache
Nemesis
no data
Astralis
no data
Anubis
NEME 11 13 ASTR
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Opening Score
NEME
ASTR
Side Balance
NEME
ASTR
Elo Diff
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Anubis
Nemesis
no data
Astralis
no data
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