Bo3 · BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2
· 2026-07-21
Nemesis
✗
vs
Astralis
65%
35%
Series win probability
NEME
2–0
41%
NEME
2–1
24%
ASTR
2–1
23%
ASTR
2–0
11%
Actual result
Nuke
13–11
NEME
Ancient
13–10
ASTR
Cache
13–7
ASTR
Model Insights
Nemesis has a moderate edge at 65%, favored on 3 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.09 vs 0.97), stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#31 vs #21), a strong nuke (81% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
41%
Nuke · Ancient · Mirage
Scenario 2
32%
Nuke · Ancient · Inferno
Scenario 3
27%
Nuke · Ancient · Cache
Nuke
NEME
13
–
7
ASTR
81%
19%
Win prob
OT 6%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
Nemesis
13-8
vs Alliance
Jul 9
13-10
vs Nuclear TigeRES
Jun 17
13-7
vs INFINITE
Jun 16
13-8
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 15
13-6
vs Gentle Mates
May 31
Astralis
11-13
vs paiN
Jun 8
6-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 7
5-13
vs 9z
Jun 6
6-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-10
vs FUT
Apr 30
Ancient
NEME
13
–
11
ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Opening Kills
NEME
ASTR
Map Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Nemesis
7-13
vs Alliance
Jul 9
13-10
vs EYEBALLERS
Jul 4
13-16
vs BetBoom
Jul 3
13-10
vs B8
Jul 2
7-13
vs Nuclear TigeRES
Jun 17
Astralis
13-4
vs GamerLegion
Jun 6
8-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-11
vs Liquid
May 11
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
16-14
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
Mirage
NEME
13
–
9
ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
Nemesis
13-10
vs BetBoom
Jul 3
13-11
vs TDK
Jun 20
13-10
vs TDK
Jun 17
13-4
vs INFINITE
Jun 16
13-5
vs FOKUS
May 31
Astralis
13-11
vs SINNERS
May 13
3-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-5
vs FUT
Apr 30
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
8-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
Nuke
NEME
13
–
7
ASTR
81%
19%
Win prob
OT 6%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
Nemesis
13-8
vs Alliance
Jul 9
13-10
vs Nuclear TigeRES
Jun 17
13-7
vs INFINITE
Jun 16
13-8
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 15
13-6
vs Gentle Mates
May 31
Astralis
11-13
vs paiN
Jun 8
6-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 7
5-13
vs 9z
Jun 6
6-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-10
vs FUT
Apr 30
Ancient
NEME
13
–
11
ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Opening Kills
NEME
ASTR
Map Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Nemesis
7-13
vs Alliance
Jul 9
13-10
vs EYEBALLERS
Jul 4
13-16
vs BetBoom
Jul 3
13-10
vs B8
Jul 2
7-13
vs Nuclear TigeRES
Jun 17
Astralis
13-4
vs GamerLegion
Jun 6
8-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-11
vs Liquid
May 11
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
16-14
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
Inferno
NEME
13
–
10
ASTR
59%
41%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
T 5v4
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
Nemesis
7-13
vs Alliance
Jul 9
9-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Jul 4
13-10
vs Luminosity
Jul 1
6-13
vs TDK
Jun 17
13-8
vs Gentle Mates
May 31
Astralis
13-8
vs SINNERS
May 13
14-16
vs GamerLegion
May 1
13-2
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
10-13
vs Aurora
Mar 14
13-4
vs FURIA
Mar 10
Nuke
NEME
13
–
7
ASTR
81%
19%
Win prob
OT 6%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
Nemesis
13-8
vs Alliance
Jul 9
13-10
vs Nuclear TigeRES
Jun 17
13-7
vs INFINITE
Jun 16
13-8
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 15
13-6
vs Gentle Mates
May 31
Astralis
11-13
vs paiN
Jun 8
6-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 7
5-13
vs 9z
Jun 6
6-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-10
vs FUT
Apr 30
Ancient
NEME
13
–
11
ASTR
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Opening Kills
NEME
ASTR
Map Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Nemesis
7-13
vs Alliance
Jul 9
13-10
vs EYEBALLERS
Jul 4
13-16
vs BetBoom
Jul 3
13-10
vs B8
Jul 2
7-13
vs Nuclear TigeRES
Jun 17
Astralis
13-4
vs GamerLegion
Jun 6
8-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-11
vs Liquid
May 11
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
16-14
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
Cache
NEME
11
–
13
ASTR
45%
55%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Opening Score
NEME
ASTR
Side Balance
NEME
ASTR
Elo Diff
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Cache
Nemesis
no data
Astralis
no data
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Nemesis
Astralis
L
1-2
vs Alliance
NukeInfernoAncient
Jul 9
35d ago
W
2-1
vs EYEBALLERS
AncientInfernoDust2
Jul 4
40d ago
L
1-2
vs BetBoom
MirageDust2Ancient
Jul 3
41d ago
W
1-0
vs B8
Ancient
Jul 2
42d ago
W
1-0
vs Luminosity
Inferno
Jul 1
43d ago
L
1-2
vs TDK
MirageOverpassDust2
Jun 20
54d ago
W
2-1
vs TDK
OverpassInfernoMirage
Jun 17
57d ago
L
1-2
vs Nuclear TigeRES
NukeDust2Ancient
Jun 17
57d ago
W
2-0
vs INFINITE
MirageNuke
Jun 16
58d ago
W
2-0
vs CYBERSHOKE
AncientNuke
Jun 15
59d ago
W
2-0
vs Gentle Mates
NukeInferno
May 31
74d ago
L
0-2
vs paiN
NukeOverpass
Jun 8
66d ago
L
0-1
vs TYLOO
Nuke
Jun 7
67d ago
W
1-0
vs GamerLegion
Ancient
Jun 6
68d ago
L
0-1
vs 9z
Nuke
Jun 6
68d ago
W
2-0
vs SINNERS
MirageInferno
May 13
92d ago
L
0-2
vs GamerLegion
MirageAncient
May 13
92d ago
L
0-2
vs Legacy
Dust2Nuke
May 12
93d ago
W
2-0
vs Liquid
Dust2Ancient
May 11
94d ago
L
0-2
vs GamerLegion
OverpassInferno
May 1
104d ago
W
2-0
vs FUT
MirageNuke
Apr 30
105d ago
L
0-2
vs G2
Dust2Overpass
Apr 29
106d ago
Player Matchups
Nemesis
Ratings
Astralis
R3
r3salt
RiflerADR 85.3KAST 74%
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 81.7KAST 70%
SD
Sdaim
EntryADR 78.4KAST 73%
JA
jabbi
EntryADR 73.8KAST 67%
MA
mag1k3Y
AWPADR 65.9KAST 74%
RY
ryu
RiflerADR 70.1KAST 69%
SE
SELLTER
RiflerADR 68.6KAST 72%
PH
phzy
AWPADR 62.5KAST 67%
TE
tex1y
RiflerADR 73.1KAST 74%
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 62.5KAST 68%
Unpredicted Maps
4 maps
Dust2
NEME
13
–
8
ASTR
63%
37%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
Map Player Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Map Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
Nemesis
22-19
vs EYEBALLERS
Jul 4
6-13
vs BetBoom
Jul 3
7-13
vs TDK
Jun 20
9-13
vs Nuclear TigeRES
Jun 17
13-9
vs FOKUS
May 31
Astralis
8-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-4
vs Liquid
May 11
5-13
vs G2
Apr 29
3-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
13-11
vs 3DMAX
Apr 10
Inferno
NEME
13
–
10
ASTR
59%
41%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
ASTR
After First Death
NEME
ASTR
Round Win Rate
NEME
ASTR
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
T 5v4
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
Nemesis
7-13
vs Alliance
Jul 9
9-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Jul 4
13-10
vs Luminosity
Jul 1
6-13
vs TDK
Jun 17
13-8
vs Gentle Mates
May 31
Astralis
13-8
vs SINNERS
May 13
14-16
vs GamerLegion
May 1
13-2
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
10-13
vs Aurora
Mar 14
13-4
vs FURIA
Mar 10
Cache
NEME
11
–
13
ASTR
45%
55%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Opening Score
NEME
ASTR
Side Balance
NEME
ASTR
Elo Diff
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Cache
Nemesis
no data
Astralis
no data
Anubis
NEME
11
–
13
ASTR
45%
55%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Overall Rating
NEME
ASTR
Ranking
NEME
ASTR
Opening Score
NEME
ASTR
Side Balance
NEME
ASTR
Elo Diff
NEME
ASTR
Recent on Anubis
Nemesis
no data
Astralis
no data
More from BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2
3 matches