Bo3 · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1
· 2026-07-13
fnatic
✓
vs
SPARTA
74%
26%
Series win probability
FNAT
2–0
37%
FNAT
2–1
37%
SPAR
2–1
14%
SPAR
2–0
12%
Actual result
Dust2
13–8
FNAT
Ancient
13–9
FNAT
Model Insights
fnatic is strongly favored at 74%, holding a map advantage on 1 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.16 vs 1.03), a significant ranking advantage (#64 vs #112), a strong cache (84% win probability). SPARTA's best shot is mirage where they hold a 57% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
41%
Cache · Dust2 · Mirage
Scenario 2
33%
Cache · Dust2 · Inferno
Scenario 3
27%
Cache · Dust2 · Anubis
Cache
FNAT
13
–
7
SPAR
84%
16%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
Map Player Rating
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Cache
fnatic
16-19
vs Misa
Jul 12
13-9
vs The Last Resort
Jul 12
SPARTA
1-13
vs Atreides
Jul 12
13-6
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
Dust2
FNAT
16
–
14
SPAR
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
T 5v4
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Dust2
fnatic
13-11
vs Misa
Jul 12
19-17
vs Alliance
Jun 14
13-10
vs aimclub
Jun 13
SPARTA
13-7
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
8-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
3-13
vs INOX Division
Jun 17
16-14
vs G2 Ares
Jun 15
8-13
vs Leo
Jun 14
Mirage
FNAT
10
–
13
SPAR
43%
57%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
T 5v4
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
fnatic
6-13
vs Metizport
Jun 14
13-3
vs Minkens finest
Jun 13
13-11
vs aimclub
Jun 13
SPARTA
9-13
vs Atreides
Jul 12
13-7
vs ENCE
Jul 8
13-8
vs Leo
Jun 14
13-6
vs AM
Jun 7
10-13
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 5
Cache
FNAT
13
–
7
SPAR
84%
16%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
Map Player Rating
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Cache
fnatic
16-19
vs Misa
Jul 12
13-9
vs The Last Resort
Jul 12
SPARTA
1-13
vs Atreides
Jul 12
13-6
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
Dust2
FNAT
16
–
14
SPAR
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
T 5v4
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Dust2
fnatic
13-11
vs Misa
Jul 12
19-17
vs Alliance
Jun 14
13-10
vs aimclub
Jun 13
SPARTA
13-7
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
8-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
3-13
vs INOX Division
Jun 17
16-14
vs G2 Ares
Jun 15
8-13
vs Leo
Jun 14
Inferno
FNAT
13
–
10
SPAR
73%
27%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
Round Win Rate
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Inferno
fnatic
13-5
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Jun 13
SPARTA
13-3
vs G2 Ares
Jun 15
13-9
vs Atreides
Jun 10
Cache
FNAT
13
–
7
SPAR
84%
16%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
Map Player Rating
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Cache
fnatic
16-19
vs Misa
Jul 12
13-9
vs The Last Resort
Jul 12
SPARTA
1-13
vs Atreides
Jul 12
13-6
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
Dust2
FNAT
16
–
14
SPAR
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
T 5v4
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Dust2
fnatic
13-11
vs Misa
Jul 12
19-17
vs Alliance
Jun 14
13-10
vs aimclub
Jun 13
SPARTA
13-7
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
8-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
3-13
vs INOX Division
Jun 17
16-14
vs G2 Ares
Jun 15
8-13
vs Leo
Jun 14
Anubis
FNAT
13
–
7
SPAR
85%
15%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
Ban Rate
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Anubis
fnatic
13-8
vs Misa
Jul 12
4-13
vs Alliance
Jun 14
13-2
vs Minkens finest
Jun 13
13-5
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Jun 13
SPARTA
13-11
vs Atreides
Jul 12
9-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
Recent Results
last 11 matches
fnatic
SPARTA
W
2-1
vs Misa
Dust2CacheAnubis
Jul 12
32d ago
W
2-0
vs The Last Resort
AncientCache
Jul 12
32d ago
L
0-2
vs Metizport
OverpassMirage
Jun 14
60d ago
L
1-2
vs Alliance
AnubisDust2Ancient
Jun 14
60d ago
W
2-0
vs Minkens finest
MirageAnubis
Jun 13
61d ago
W
2-0
vs aimclub
Dust2Mirage
Jun 13
61d ago
W
2-0
vs BASEMENT BOYS
AnubisInferno
Jun 13
61d ago
L
1-2
vs Atreides
CacheAnubisMirage
Jul 12
32d ago
W
2-0
vs Noir Verse
CacheDust2
Jul 12
32d ago
L
1-2
vs Bushido Wildcats
AnubisAncientDust2
Jul 12
32d ago
W
2-0
vs ENCE
NukeMirage
Jul 8
36d ago
L
1-2
vs INOX Division
NukeOverpassDust2
Jun 17
57d ago
W
2-0
vs G2 Ares
Dust2Inferno
Jun 15
59d ago
L
1-2
vs Leo
AncientMirageDust2
Jun 14
60d ago
L
1-2
vs GenOne
AncientDust2Nuke
Jun 12
62d ago
L
0-2
vs KOLESIE
NukeDust2
Jun 11
63d ago
W
2-0
vs Atreides
InfernoNuke
Jun 10
64d ago
W
2-0
vs brazylijski luz
AncientDust2
Jun 10
64d ago
Player Matchups
fnatic
Ratings
SPARTA
JA
jambo
AWPADR 79.8KAST 76%
DJ
Djon8
EntryADR 81.1KAST 71%
JA
jackasmo
RiflerADR 82.6KAST 76%
TR
TRAVIS
RiflerADR 75.3KAST 73%
MA
mazay
EntryADR 84.7KAST 71%
EL
El1an
AWPADR 76.2KAST 72%
CA
cairne
RiflerADR 73.3KAST 72%
K4
k4nfuz
RiflerADR 67.3KAST 72%
FE
fEAR
RiflerADR 71.2KAST 72%
NI
NickelBack
RiflerADR 68.4KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Ancient
FNAT
13
–
6
SPAR
89%
11%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Round Win Rate
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Ancient
fnatic
13-4
vs The Last Resort
Jul 12
6-13
vs Alliance
Jun 14
SPARTA
13-6
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
5-13
vs Leo
Jun 14
4-13
vs GenOne
Jun 12
13-7
vs brazylijski luz
Jun 10
8-13
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 5
Anubis
FNAT
13
–
7
SPAR
85%
15%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
Ban Rate
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Anubis
fnatic
13-8
vs Misa
Jul 12
4-13
vs Alliance
Jun 14
13-2
vs Minkens finest
Jun 13
13-5
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Jun 13
SPARTA
13-11
vs Atreides
Jul 12
9-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
Inferno
FNAT
13
–
10
SPAR
73%
27%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
SPAR
After First Kill
FNAT
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
FNAT
SPAR
Ranking
FNAT
SPAR
Round Win Rate
FNAT
SPAR
Recent on Inferno
fnatic
13-5
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Jun 13
SPARTA
13-3
vs G2 Ares
Jun 15
13-9
vs Atreides
Jun 10
More from ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1
5 matches