Bo3 · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1
· 2026-07-13
MOUZ NXT
vs
SPARTA
✓
19%
81%
Series win probability
SPAR
2–0
59%
SPAR
2–1
22%
MN
2–1
14%
MN
2–0
5%
Actual result
Cache
16–14
MN
Dust2
13–1
SPAR
Mirage
13–4
SPAR
Model Insights
SPARTA is strongly favored at 81%, holding a map advantage on 2 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.03 vs 0.96), a strong dust2 (90% win probability). MOUZ NXT's best shot is cache where they hold a 60% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
37%
Mirage · Dust2 · Cache
Scenario 2
36%
Mirage · Dust2 · Ancient
Scenario 3
26%
Mirage · Dust2 · Nuke
Mirage
MN
7
–
13
SPAR
19%
81%
Win prob
OT 5%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
Round Win Rate
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
Map Win Rate
MN
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ NXT
5-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
13-8
vs TDK
May 14
14-16
vs Lavked
May 12
8-13
vs Tricked
May 10
4-13
vs UNiTY
May 9
SPARTA
9-13
vs Atreides
Jul 12
13-7
vs ENCE
Jul 8
13-8
vs Leo
Jun 14
13-6
vs AM
Jun 7
10-13
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 5
Dust2
MN
5
–
13
SPAR
10%
90%
Win prob
OT 3%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
T 5v4
MN
SPAR
Overall Rating
MN
SPAR
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ NXT
3-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
1-13
vs TDK
May 14
13-2
vs Lavked
May 12
4-13
vs INOX Division
May 11
13-11
vs UNiTY
May 9
SPARTA
13-7
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
8-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
3-13
vs INOX Division
Jun 17
16-14
vs G2 Ares
Jun 15
8-13
vs Leo
Jun 14
Cache
MN
13
–
10
SPAR
60%
40%
Win prob
OT 11%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
MN
SPAR
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Kill
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
Round Win Rate
MN
SPAR
Recent on Cache
MOUZ NXT
13-11
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
SPARTA
1-13
vs Atreides
Jul 12
13-6
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
Mirage
MN
7
–
13
SPAR
19%
81%
Win prob
OT 5%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
Round Win Rate
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
Map Win Rate
MN
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ NXT
5-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
13-8
vs TDK
May 14
14-16
vs Lavked
May 12
8-13
vs Tricked
May 10
4-13
vs UNiTY
May 9
SPARTA
9-13
vs Atreides
Jul 12
13-7
vs ENCE
Jul 8
13-8
vs Leo
Jun 14
13-6
vs AM
Jun 7
10-13
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 5
Dust2
MN
5
–
13
SPAR
10%
90%
Win prob
OT 3%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
T 5v4
MN
SPAR
Overall Rating
MN
SPAR
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ NXT
3-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
1-13
vs TDK
May 14
13-2
vs Lavked
May 12
4-13
vs INOX Division
May 11
13-11
vs UNiTY
May 9
SPARTA
13-7
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
8-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
3-13
vs INOX Division
Jun 17
16-14
vs G2 Ares
Jun 15
8-13
vs Leo
Jun 14
Ancient
MN
10
–
13
SPAR
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
After First Kill
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
Overall Rating
MN
SPAR
Recent on Ancient
MOUZ NXT
13-8
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
13-11
vs UNiTY
May 9
7-13
vs Lavked
May 7
13-9
vs UNiTY
Apr 27
20-22
vs Acend
Apr 22
SPARTA
13-6
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
5-13
vs Leo
Jun 14
4-13
vs GenOne
Jun 12
13-7
vs brazylijski luz
Jun 10
8-13
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 5
Mirage
MN
7
–
13
SPAR
19%
81%
Win prob
OT 5%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
Round Win Rate
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
Map Win Rate
MN
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ NXT
5-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
13-8
vs TDK
May 14
14-16
vs Lavked
May 12
8-13
vs Tricked
May 10
4-13
vs UNiTY
May 9
SPARTA
9-13
vs Atreides
Jul 12
13-7
vs ENCE
Jul 8
13-8
vs Leo
Jun 14
13-6
vs AM
Jun 7
10-13
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 5
Dust2
MN
5
–
13
SPAR
10%
90%
Win prob
OT 3%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
T 5v4
MN
SPAR
Overall Rating
MN
SPAR
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ NXT
3-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
1-13
vs TDK
May 14
13-2
vs Lavked
May 12
4-13
vs INOX Division
May 11
13-11
vs UNiTY
May 9
SPARTA
13-7
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
8-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
3-13
vs INOX Division
Jun 17
16-14
vs G2 Ares
Jun 15
8-13
vs Leo
Jun 14
Nuke
MN
8
–
13
SPAR
24%
76%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
After First Kill
MN
SPAR
T 5v4
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
Recent on Nuke
MOUZ NXT
13-11
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
11-13
vs Lavked
May 12
13-11
vs AM
May 8
1-13
vs Ursa
May 4
23-25
vs CYBERSHOKE
Apr 20
SPARTA
13-11
vs ENCE
Jul 8
13-10
vs INOX Division
Jun 17
8-13
vs GenOne
Jun 12
9-13
vs KOLESIE
Jun 11
13-10
vs Atreides
Jun 10
Recent Results
last 11 matches
MOUZ NXT
SPARTA
L
1-2
vs Bushido Wildcats
Dust2NukeMirage
Jul 12
32d ago
W
2-1
vs Noir Verse
AnubisAncientCache
Jul 12
32d ago
L
1-2
vs TDK
MirageOverpassDust2
May 14
91d ago
L
1-2
vs Lavked
NukeDust2Mirage
May 12
93d ago
L
0-2
vs INOX Division
OverpassDust2
May 11
94d ago
L
0-2
vs Tricked
MirageOverpass
May 10
95d ago
W
2-1
vs UNiTY
MirageAncientDust2
May 9
96d ago
W
2-0
vs AM
MirageNuke
May 8
97d ago
L
1-2
vs Lavked
MirageDust2Ancient
May 7
98d ago
L
1-2
vs Ursa
Dust2MirageNuke
May 4
101d ago
L
1-2
vs UNiTY
AncientMirageDust2
Apr 27
108d ago
L
1-2
vs Atreides
CacheAnubisMirage
Jul 12
32d ago
W
2-0
vs Noir Verse
CacheDust2
Jul 12
32d ago
L
1-2
vs Bushido Wildcats
AnubisAncientDust2
Jul 12
32d ago
W
2-0
vs ENCE
NukeMirage
Jul 8
36d ago
L
1-2
vs INOX Division
NukeOverpassDust2
Jun 17
57d ago
W
2-0
vs G2 Ares
Dust2Inferno
Jun 15
59d ago
L
1-2
vs Leo
AncientMirageDust2
Jun 14
60d ago
L
1-2
vs GenOne
AncientDust2Nuke
Jun 12
62d ago
L
0-2
vs KOLESIE
NukeDust2
Jun 11
63d ago
W
2-0
vs Atreides
InfernoNuke
Jun 10
64d ago
W
2-0
vs brazylijski luz
AncientDust2
Jun 10
64d ago
Player Matchups
MOUZ NXT
Ratings
SPARTA
NI
Nikodeon
EntryADR 78.8KAST 71%
DJ
Djon8
EntryADR 81.1KAST 71%
ES
eSx
AWPADR 68.1KAST 73%
TR
TRAVIS
RiflerADR 75.3KAST 73%
OP
opdust
RiflerADR 71.2KAST 67%
EL
El1an
AWPADR 76.2KAST 72%
AY
ay0k
RiflerADR 63.6KAST 67%
K4
k4nfuz
RiflerADR 67.3KAST 72%
MI
mixer
RiflerADR 62.9KAST 71%
NI
NickelBack
RiflerADR 68.4KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps
4 maps
Inferno
MN
7
–
13
SPAR
14%
86%
Win prob
OT 5%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
After First Kill
MN
SPAR
Ban Rate
MN
SPAR
Round Win Rate
MN
SPAR
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ NXT
no data
SPARTA
13-3
vs G2 Ares
Jun 15
13-9
vs Atreides
Jun 10
Nuke
MN
8
–
13
SPAR
24%
76%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
After First Kill
MN
SPAR
T 5v4
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
Recent on Nuke
MOUZ NXT
13-11
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
11-13
vs Lavked
May 12
13-11
vs AM
May 8
1-13
vs Ursa
May 4
23-25
vs CYBERSHOKE
Apr 20
SPARTA
13-11
vs ENCE
Jul 8
13-10
vs INOX Division
Jun 17
8-13
vs GenOne
Jun 12
9-13
vs KOLESIE
Jun 11
13-10
vs Atreides
Jun 10
Anubis
MN
9
–
13
SPAR
29%
71%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
After First Kill
MN
SPAR
Opening Kills
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
Recent on Anubis
MOUZ NXT
9-13
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
SPARTA
13-11
vs Atreides
Jul 12
9-13
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
Ancient
MN
10
–
13
SPAR
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MN
SPAR
After First Death
MN
SPAR
After First Kill
MN
SPAR
Map Player Rating
MN
SPAR
Overall Rating
MN
SPAR
Recent on Ancient
MOUZ NXT
13-8
vs Noir Verse
Jul 12
13-11
vs UNiTY
May 9
7-13
vs Lavked
May 7
13-9
vs UNiTY
Apr 27
20-22
vs Acend
Apr 22
SPARTA
13-6
vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 12
5-13
vs Leo
Jun 14
4-13
vs GenOne
Jun 12
13-7
vs brazylijski luz
Jun 10
8-13
vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 5
More from ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1
5 matches