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Bo3  ·  IEM Cologne Major 2026 · 2026-06-20
Spirit ✗
vs
Falcons
68%
32%
Series win probability
SPIR 2–0 34%
SPIR 2–1 34%
FALC 2–0 17%
FALC 2–1 15%
Actual result
Anubis 16–14 FALC
Mirage 13–8 SPIR
Dust2 16–12 FALC
Model Insights
Spirit has a moderate edge at 68%, favored on 3 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.15 vs 1.06), a strong mirage (65% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 40% Dust2 · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 2 31% Dust2 · Mirage · Anubis
Scenario 3 29% Dust2 · Mirage · Nuke
Dust2
SPIR 16 – 14 FALC
51%
49%
Win prob OT 12% ✗
Key factors
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Round Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Opening Kills
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
16-14 vs G2 Jun 19
16-14 vs 9z Jun 13
9-13 vs Aurora Jun 12
13-1 vs Natus Vincere Jun 11
16-12 vs Falcons May 17
Falcons
13-11 vs Vitality Jun 19
13-3 vs Natus Vincere Jun 14
11-13 vs Monte Jun 13
13-8 vs G2 Jun 11
6-13 vs Legacy May 23
Mirage
SPIR 13 – 9 FALC
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Map Player Rating
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Mirage
Spirit
25-22 vs G2 Jun 19
16-13 vs 9z Jun 13
13-3 vs 9z Jun 7
13-5 vs BetBoom Jun 6
13-1 vs MIBR Jun 6
Falcons
7-13 vs Natus Vincere Jun 14
13-10 vs Monte Jun 13
6-13 vs Legacy May 23
7-13 vs MOUZ May 22
7-13 vs Spirit May 17
Ancient
SPIR 13 – 10 FALC
65%
35%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPIR
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Opening Kills
SPIR
FALC
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Ancient
Spirit
13-10 vs Falcons May 17
13-11 vs G2 May 15
19-16 vs The MongolZ May 10
13-3 vs The Huns May 9
13-8 vs RED Canids Apr 15
Falcons
10-13 vs BetBoom Jun 12
16-13 vs G2 Jun 11
9-13 vs Legacy May 23
13-9 vs Legacy May 21
13-11 vs M80 May 20
Dust2
SPIR 16 – 14 FALC
51%
49%
Win prob OT 12% ✗
Key factors
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Round Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Opening Kills
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
16-14 vs G2 Jun 19
16-14 vs 9z Jun 13
9-13 vs Aurora Jun 12
13-1 vs Natus Vincere Jun 11
16-12 vs Falcons May 17
Falcons
13-11 vs Vitality Jun 19
13-3 vs Natus Vincere Jun 14
11-13 vs Monte Jun 13
13-8 vs G2 Jun 11
6-13 vs Legacy May 23
Mirage
SPIR 13 – 9 FALC
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Map Player Rating
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Mirage
Spirit
25-22 vs G2 Jun 19
16-13 vs 9z Jun 13
13-3 vs 9z Jun 7
13-5 vs BetBoom Jun 6
13-1 vs MIBR Jun 6
Falcons
7-13 vs Natus Vincere Jun 14
13-10 vs Monte Jun 13
6-13 vs Legacy May 23
7-13 vs MOUZ May 22
7-13 vs Spirit May 17
Anubis
SPIR 16 – 14 FALC
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Map Player Rating
SPIR
FALC
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Opening Kills
SPIR
FALC
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Anubis
Spirit
13-4 vs Aurora Jun 12
13-8 vs Natus Vincere Jun 11
4-13 vs Falcons Apr 14
3-13 vs PARIVISION Mar 21
13-10 vs G2 Mar 8
Falcons
13-11 vs Vitality Jun 19
19-16 vs Natus Vincere Jun 14
13-4 vs Spirit Apr 14
13-11 vs FURIA Feb 16
13-9 vs FaZe Feb 15
Dust2
SPIR 16 – 14 FALC
51%
49%
Win prob OT 12% ✗
Key factors
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Round Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Opening Kills
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
16-14 vs G2 Jun 19
16-14 vs 9z Jun 13
9-13 vs Aurora Jun 12
13-1 vs Natus Vincere Jun 11
16-12 vs Falcons May 17
Falcons
13-11 vs Vitality Jun 19
13-3 vs Natus Vincere Jun 14
11-13 vs Monte Jun 13
13-8 vs G2 Jun 11
6-13 vs Legacy May 23
Mirage
SPIR 13 – 9 FALC
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Map Player Rating
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Mirage
Spirit
25-22 vs G2 Jun 19
16-13 vs 9z Jun 13
13-3 vs 9z Jun 7
13-5 vs BetBoom Jun 6
13-1 vs MIBR Jun 6
Falcons
7-13 vs Natus Vincere Jun 14
13-10 vs Monte Jun 13
6-13 vs Legacy May 23
7-13 vs MOUZ May 22
7-13 vs Spirit May 17
Nuke
SPIR 13 – 6 FALC
82%
18%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Round Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Nuke
Spirit
13-5 vs Aurora Jun 12
13-1 vs 9z Jun 7
13-2 vs MOUZ May 16
10-13 vs Vitality Apr 19
11-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 23
Falcons
11-13 vs BetBoom Jun 12
13-11 vs Legacy May 23
13-10 vs MOUZ May 22
22-20 vs FURIA May 15
8-13 vs 9z May 10
Recent Results last 11 matches
Spirit
Falcons
W 2-1 vs G2 OverpassDust2Mirage Jun 19 4d ago
W 2-1 vs 9z OverpassMirageDust2 Jun 13 10d ago
W 2-1 vs Aurora Dust2AnubisNuke Jun 12 11d ago
W 2-0 vs Natus Vincere Dust2Anubis Jun 11 12d ago
W 2-0 vs 9z MirageNuke Jun 7 16d ago
W 1-0 vs BetBoom Mirage Jun 6 17d ago
W 1-0 vs MIBR Mirage Jun 6 17d ago
W 3-0 vs Falcons Dust2MirageAncient May 17 37d ago
W 2-0 vs MOUZ Dust2Nuke May 16 38d ago
W 2-0 vs G2 Dust2Ancient May 15 39d ago
W 2-1 vs FURIA Dust2OverpassMirage May 11 43d ago
W 2-1 vs Vitality AnubisInfernoDust2 Jun 19 4d ago
W 2-1 vs Natus Vincere Dust2MirageAnubis Jun 14 9d ago
W 2-1 vs Monte InfernoDust2Mirage Jun 13 10d ago
L 0-2 vs BetBoom NukeAncient Jun 12 11d ago
W 2-1 vs G2 InfernoDust2Ancient Jun 11 12d ago
L 1-3 vs Legacy NukeAncientMirageDust2 May 23 31d ago
W 2-1 vs MOUZ MirageDust2Nuke May 22 32d ago
W 2-0 vs Legacy Dust2Ancient May 21 33d ago
W 2-0 vs M80 InfernoAncient May 20 34d ago
W 1-0 vs BC.Game Dust2 May 19 35d ago
L 0-3 vs Spirit Dust2MirageAncient May 17 37d ago
Player Matchups
Spirit
Ratings
Falcons
DO
donk
EntryADR 95.9KAST 78%
1.47 vs 1.26
M0
m0NESY
AWPADR 80.5KAST 76%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 76.4KAST 77%
1.18 vs 1.15
KY
kyousuke
RiflerADR 81.3KAST 74%
TN
tN1R
RiflerADR 71.7KAST 73%
1.06 vs 1.10
NI
NiKo
EntryADR 73.9KAST 73%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 69.6KAST 75%
1.02 vs 1.05
TE
TeSeS
RiflerADR 68.8KAST 72%
ZO
zont1x
RiflerADR 67.6KAST 76%
1.00 vs 0.79
KA
karrigan
RiflerADR 56.7KAST 67%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Overpass
SPIR 13 – 5 FALC
90%
10%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
Ban Rate
SPIR
FALC
Map Player Rating
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Overpass
Spirit
9-13 vs G2 Jun 19
12-16 vs 9z Jun 13
12-16 vs FURIA May 11
13-2 vs RED Canids Apr 15
9-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 23
Falcons
no data
Nuke
SPIR 13 – 6 FALC
82%
18%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Round Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Nuke
Spirit
13-5 vs Aurora Jun 12
13-1 vs 9z Jun 7
13-2 vs MOUZ May 16
10-13 vs Vitality Apr 19
11-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 23
Falcons
11-13 vs BetBoom Jun 12
13-11 vs Legacy May 23
13-10 vs MOUZ May 22
22-20 vs FURIA May 15
8-13 vs 9z May 10
Anubis
SPIR 16 – 14 FALC
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
FALC
Map Player Rating
SPIR
FALC
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Opening Kills
SPIR
FALC
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Anubis
Spirit
13-4 vs Aurora Jun 12
13-8 vs Natus Vincere Jun 11
4-13 vs Falcons Apr 14
3-13 vs PARIVISION Mar 21
13-10 vs G2 Mar 8
Falcons
13-11 vs Vitality Jun 19
19-16 vs Natus Vincere Jun 14
13-4 vs Spirit Apr 14
13-11 vs FURIA Feb 16
13-9 vs FaZe Feb 15
More from IEM Cologne Major 2026 1 match
FURIA over Aurora 60%