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Bo3  ·  IEM Cologne Major 2026 · 2026-06-20
Aurora
vs
FURIA ✓
40%
60%
Series win probability
FURI 2–0 39%
AURO 2–1 29%
FURI 2–1 21%
AURO 2–0 11%
Actual result
Dust2 13–9 FURI
Nuke 13–4 FURI
Model Insights
FURIA has a moderate edge at 60%, favored on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a strong inferno (85% win probability). Aurora's best shot is anubis where they hold a 73% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 35% Dust2 · Inferno · Anubis
Scenario 2 33% Dust2 · Anubis · Mirage
Scenario 3 33% Dust2 · Anubis · Overpass
Dust2
AURO 10 – 13 FURI
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
AURO
FURI
Opening Kills
AURO
FURI
Round Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Ranking
AURO
FURI
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
Recent on Dust2
Aurora
13-5 vs 9z Jun 14
13-9 vs Spirit Jun 12
11-13 vs MOUZ May 14
11-13 vs MOUZ May 11
13-3 vs The Huns May 10
FURIA
8-13 vs 9z Jun 18
13-6 vs BetBoom Jun 13
17-19 vs Falcons May 15
8-13 vs Spirit May 11
4-13 vs FaZe Apr 30
Inferno
AURO 7 – 13 FURI
15%
85%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
After First Death
AURO
FURI
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
Opening Kills
AURO
FURI
Map Player Rating
AURO
FURI
Round Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Recent on Inferno
Aurora
4-13 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
13-2 vs Alliance Apr 1
13-3 vs M80 Mar 31
5-13 vs Vitality Mar 28
13-6 vs The MongolZ Mar 27
FURIA
5-13 vs MOUZ Jun 12
13-4 vs B8 Jun 11
13-6 vs Gentle Mates May 12
13-7 vs HEROIC May 10
13-5 vs GamerLegion Apr 29
Anubis
AURO 13 – 8 FURI
73%
27%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
Map Player Rating
AURO
FURI
After First Death
AURO
FURI
T 5v4
AURO
FURI
Map Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Recent on Anubis
Aurora
13-9 vs BetBoom Jun 18
13-7 vs G2 Jun 13
4-13 vs Spirit Jun 12
13-7 vs Monte Jun 11
13-7 vs PARIVISION May 10
FURIA
11-13 vs Falcons Feb 16
13-9 vs FUT Feb 15
Dust2
AURO 10 – 13 FURI
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
AURO
FURI
Opening Kills
AURO
FURI
Round Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Ranking
AURO
FURI
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
Recent on Dust2
Aurora
13-5 vs 9z Jun 14
13-9 vs Spirit Jun 12
11-13 vs MOUZ May 14
11-13 vs MOUZ May 11
13-3 vs The Huns May 10
FURIA
8-13 vs 9z Jun 18
13-6 vs BetBoom Jun 13
17-19 vs Falcons May 15
8-13 vs Spirit May 11
4-13 vs FaZe Apr 30
Anubis
AURO 13 – 8 FURI
73%
27%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
Map Player Rating
AURO
FURI
After First Death
AURO
FURI
T 5v4
AURO
FURI
Map Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Recent on Anubis
Aurora
13-9 vs BetBoom Jun 18
13-7 vs G2 Jun 13
4-13 vs Spirit Jun 12
13-7 vs Monte Jun 11
13-7 vs PARIVISION May 10
FURIA
11-13 vs Falcons Feb 16
13-9 vs FUT Feb 15
Mirage
AURO 13 – 10 FURI
59%
41%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
AURO
FURI
T 5v4
AURO
FURI
Round Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Map Player Rating
AURO
FURI
Ranking
AURO
FURI
Recent on Mirage
Aurora
13-10 vs The MongolZ May 13
13-7 vs B8 Apr 15
13-11 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
8-13 vs MOUZ Apr 14
13-4 vs HOTU Apr 13
FURIA
13-9 vs 9z Jun 18
13-10 vs B8 Jun 11
13-9 vs Falcons May 15
11-13 vs Spirit May 11
13-4 vs HEROIC May 10
Dust2
AURO 10 – 13 FURI
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
AURO
FURI
Opening Kills
AURO
FURI
Round Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Ranking
AURO
FURI
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
Recent on Dust2
Aurora
13-5 vs 9z Jun 14
13-9 vs Spirit Jun 12
11-13 vs MOUZ May 14
11-13 vs MOUZ May 11
13-3 vs The Huns May 10
FURIA
8-13 vs 9z Jun 18
13-6 vs BetBoom Jun 13
17-19 vs Falcons May 15
8-13 vs Spirit May 11
4-13 vs FaZe Apr 30
Anubis
AURO 13 – 8 FURI
73%
27%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
Map Player Rating
AURO
FURI
After First Death
AURO
FURI
T 5v4
AURO
FURI
Map Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Recent on Anubis
Aurora
13-9 vs BetBoom Jun 18
13-7 vs G2 Jun 13
4-13 vs Spirit Jun 12
13-7 vs Monte Jun 11
13-7 vs PARIVISION May 10
FURIA
11-13 vs Falcons Feb 16
13-9 vs FUT Feb 15
Overpass
AURO 10 – 13 FURI
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
After First Death
AURO
FURI
Opening Kills
AURO
FURI
Round Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Multi-Kills
AURO
FURI
Recent on Overpass
Aurora
13-8 vs G2 Jun 13
13-11 vs The MongolZ May 13
13-6 vs B8 Apr 15
11-13 vs Alliance Apr 1
13-7 vs Sashi Mar 31
FURIA
13-6 vs 9z Jun 18
13-6 vs BetBoom Jun 13
13-7 vs MOUZ Jun 12
10-13 vs Gentle Mates May 12
16-12 vs Spirit May 11
Recent Results last 11 matches
Aurora
FURIA
W 2-0 vs BetBoom NukeAnubis Jun 18 5d ago
W 2-0 vs 9z NukeDust2 Jun 14 9d ago
W 2-0 vs G2 OverpassAnubis Jun 13 10d ago
L 1-2 vs Spirit Dust2AnubisNuke Jun 12 11d ago
W 2-0 vs Monte NukeAnubis Jun 11 12d ago
L 0-2 vs MOUZ Dust2Nuke May 14 40d ago
W 2-0 vs The MongolZ OverpassMirage May 13 41d ago
L 0-2 vs MOUZ Dust2Nuke May 11 43d ago
W 2-0 vs The Huns NukeDust2 May 10 44d ago
W 2-0 vs PARIVISION AnubisDust2 May 10 44d ago
L 0-2 vs HEROIC NukeDust2 May 8 46d ago
W 2-1 vs 9z Dust2MirageOverpass Jun 18 5d ago
W 2-0 vs BetBoom OverpassDust2 Jun 13 10d ago
W 2-1 vs MOUZ NukeInfernoOverpass Jun 12 11d ago
W 2-0 vs B8 MirageInferno Jun 11 12d ago
L 1-2 vs Falcons MirageNukeDust2 May 15 39d ago
W 2-1 vs Gentle Mates NukeOverpassInferno May 12 42d ago
L 1-2 vs Spirit Dust2OverpassMirage May 11 43d ago
W 2-0 vs HEROIC MirageInferno May 10 44d ago
W 2-0 vs Monte NukeOverpass May 9 45d ago
L 1-2 vs FaZe Dust2MirageNuke Apr 30 54d ago
L 1-2 vs GamerLegion InfernoNukeMirage Apr 29 55d ago
Player Matchups
Aurora
Ratings
FURIA
WI
Wicadia
RiflerADR 85.1KAST 72%
1.18 vs 1.18
KS
KSCERATO
EntryADR 81.6KAST 77%
XA
XANTARES
EntryADR 79.4KAST 74%
1.07 vs 1.16
MO
molodoy
AWPADR 79.8KAST 75%
WO
woxic
AWPADR 72.9KAST 72%
1.07 vs 1.10
YE
YEKINDAR
RiflerADR 79.7KAST 74%
SO
soulfly
RiflerADR 68.8KAST 72%
1.03 vs 1.04
YU
yuurih
RiflerADR 69.8KAST 77%
MA
MAJ3R
RiflerADR 63.5KAST 69%
0.94 vs 0.93
FA
FalleN
RiflerADR 62.4KAST 72%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Ancient
AURO 13 – 10 FURI
65%
35%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AURO
FURI
Opening Kills
AURO
FURI
After First Death
AURO
FURI
T 5v4
AURO
FURI
Ranking
AURO
FURI
Recent on Ancient
Aurora
22-25 vs Vitality Feb 3
FURIA
10-13 vs Vitality Apr 18
Overpass
AURO 10 – 13 FURI
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
After First Death
AURO
FURI
Opening Kills
AURO
FURI
Round Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Multi-Kills
AURO
FURI
Recent on Overpass
Aurora
13-8 vs G2 Jun 13
13-11 vs The MongolZ May 13
13-6 vs B8 Apr 15
11-13 vs Alliance Apr 1
13-7 vs Sashi Mar 31
FURIA
13-6 vs 9z Jun 18
13-6 vs BetBoom Jun 13
13-7 vs MOUZ Jun 12
10-13 vs Gentle Mates May 12
16-12 vs Spirit May 11
Nuke
AURO 10 – 13 FURI
38%
62%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
AURO
FURI
Opening Kills
AURO
FURI
Map Win Rate
AURO
FURI
After First Death
AURO
FURI
Round Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Recent on Nuke
Aurora
13-6 vs BetBoom Jun 18
13-1 vs 9z Jun 14
5-13 vs Spirit Jun 12
13-10 vs Monte Jun 11
8-13 vs MOUZ May 14
FURIA
13-5 vs MOUZ Jun 12
20-22 vs Falcons May 15
13-11 vs Gentle Mates May 12
13-3 vs Monte May 9
3-13 vs FaZe Apr 30
Mirage
AURO 13 – 10 FURI
59%
41%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
AURO
FURI
T 5v4
AURO
FURI
Round Win Rate
AURO
FURI
Map Player Rating
AURO
FURI
Ranking
AURO
FURI
Recent on Mirage
Aurora
13-10 vs The MongolZ May 13
13-7 vs B8 Apr 15
13-11 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
8-13 vs MOUZ Apr 14
13-4 vs HOTU Apr 13
FURIA
13-9 vs 9z Jun 18
13-10 vs B8 Jun 11
13-9 vs Falcons May 15
11-13 vs Spirit May 11
13-4 vs HEROIC May 10
More from IEM Cologne Major 2026 1 match
Spirit over Falcons 68%