Bo3 · IEM Cologne Major 2026
· 2026-06-19
G2
vs
Spirit
✓
8%
92%
Series win probability
SPIR
2–0
68%
SPIR
2–1
23%
G2
2–1
6%
G2
2–0
2%
Actual result
Overpass
13–9
G2
Dust2
16–14
SPIR
Mirage
25–22
SPIR
Model Insights
Spirit is strongly favored at 92%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.15 vs 1.09), a strong ancient (92% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
47%
Dust2 · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 2
27%
Dust2 · Mirage · Overpass
Scenario 3
27%
Dust2 · Mirage · Anubis
Dust2
G2
8
–
13
SPIR
30%
70%
Win prob
OT 8%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
Round Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Map Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Side Balance
G2
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
G2
11-13
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 15
13-7
vs Legacy
Jun 14
8-13
vs Falcons
Jun 11
6-13
vs Spirit
May 15
13-4
vs Monte
May 13
Spirit
16-14
vs 9z
Jun 13
9-13
vs Aurora
Jun 12
13-1
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
16-12
vs Falcons
May 17
13-3
vs MOUZ
May 16
Mirage
G2
6
–
13
SPIR
11%
89%
Win prob
OT 4%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
After First Kill
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Map Player Rating
G2
SPIR
T 5v4
G2
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
G2
13-10
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 15
13-9
vs FUT
Jun 12
13-8
vs BIG
Jun 8
13-8
vs M80
Jun 6
22-19
vs Monte
Jun 6
Spirit
16-13
vs 9z
Jun 13
13-3
vs 9z
Jun 7
13-5
vs BetBoom
Jun 6
13-1
vs MIBR
Jun 6
13-7
vs Falcons
May 17
Ancient
G2
7
–
13
SPIR
8%
92%
Win prob
OT 3%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
After First Death
G2
SPIR
Map Player Rating
G2
SPIR
T Side
G2
SPIR
Recent on Ancient
G2
6-13
vs FUT
Jun 12
13-16
vs Falcons
Jun 11
4-13
vs FUT
Jun 7
11-13
vs Spirit
May 15
13-2
vs Monte
May 13
Spirit
13-10
vs Falcons
May 17
13-11
vs G2
May 15
19-16
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-3
vs The Huns
May 9
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
Dust2
G2
8
–
13
SPIR
30%
70%
Win prob
OT 8%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
Round Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Map Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Side Balance
G2
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
G2
11-13
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 15
13-7
vs Legacy
Jun 14
8-13
vs Falcons
Jun 11
6-13
vs Spirit
May 15
13-4
vs Monte
May 13
Spirit
16-14
vs 9z
Jun 13
9-13
vs Aurora
Jun 12
13-1
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
16-12
vs Falcons
May 17
13-3
vs MOUZ
May 16
Mirage
G2
6
–
13
SPIR
11%
89%
Win prob
OT 4%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
After First Kill
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Map Player Rating
G2
SPIR
T 5v4
G2
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
G2
13-10
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 15
13-9
vs FUT
Jun 12
13-8
vs BIG
Jun 8
13-8
vs M80
Jun 6
22-19
vs Monte
Jun 6
Spirit
16-13
vs 9z
Jun 13
13-3
vs 9z
Jun 7
13-5
vs BetBoom
Jun 6
13-1
vs MIBR
Jun 6
13-7
vs Falcons
May 17
Overpass
G2
7
–
13
SPIR
8%
92%
Win prob
OT 4%
✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
Round Win Rate
G2
SPIR
After First Kill
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Map Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Recent on Overpass
G2
13-4
vs Legacy
Jun 14
8-13
vs Aurora
Jun 13
13-5
vs FUT
Jun 12
13-7
vs FUT
Jun 7
13-11
vs Vitality
Apr 30
Spirit
12-16
vs 9z
Jun 13
12-16
vs FURIA
May 11
13-2
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
9-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
Dust2
G2
8
–
13
SPIR
30%
70%
Win prob
OT 8%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
Round Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Map Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Side Balance
G2
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
G2
11-13
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 15
13-7
vs Legacy
Jun 14
8-13
vs Falcons
Jun 11
6-13
vs Spirit
May 15
13-4
vs Monte
May 13
Spirit
16-14
vs 9z
Jun 13
9-13
vs Aurora
Jun 12
13-1
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
16-12
vs Falcons
May 17
13-3
vs MOUZ
May 16
Mirage
G2
6
–
13
SPIR
11%
89%
Win prob
OT 4%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
After First Kill
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Map Player Rating
G2
SPIR
T 5v4
G2
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
G2
13-10
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 15
13-9
vs FUT
Jun 12
13-8
vs BIG
Jun 8
13-8
vs M80
Jun 6
22-19
vs Monte
Jun 6
Spirit
16-13
vs 9z
Jun 13
13-3
vs 9z
Jun 7
13-5
vs BetBoom
Jun 6
13-1
vs MIBR
Jun 6
13-7
vs Falcons
May 17
Anubis
G2
9
–
13
SPIR
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
After First Kill
G2
SPIR
Round Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Map Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
G2
7-13
vs Aurora
Jun 13
11-13
vs FUT
Jun 7
10-13
vs BetBoom
Apr 4
13-2
vs Fluxo
Mar 30
10-13
vs BetBoom
Mar 30
Spirit
13-4
vs Aurora
Jun 12
13-8
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
Recent Results
last 11 matches
G2
Spirit
W
2-1
vs Natus Vincere
Dust2InfernoMirage
Jun 15
8d ago
W
2-0
vs Legacy
Dust2Overpass
Jun 14
9d ago
L
0-2
vs Aurora
OverpassAnubis
Jun 13
10d ago
W
2-1
vs FUT
OverpassAncientMirage
Jun 12
11d ago
L
1-2
vs Falcons
InfernoDust2Ancient
Jun 11
12d ago
W
2-0
vs BIG
InfernoMirage
Jun 8
15d ago
L
1-2
vs FUT
AnubisOverpassAncient
Jun 7
16d ago
W
1-0
vs M80
Mirage
Jun 6
17d ago
W
1-0
vs Monte
Mirage
Jun 6
17d ago
L
0-2
vs Spirit
Dust2Ancient
May 15
39d ago
W
2-0
vs Monte
AncientDust2
May 13
41d ago
W
2-1
vs 9z
OverpassMirageDust2
Jun 13
10d ago
W
2-1
vs Aurora
Dust2AnubisNuke
Jun 12
11d ago
W
2-0
vs Natus Vincere
Dust2Anubis
Jun 11
12d ago
W
2-0
vs 9z
MirageNuke
Jun 7
16d ago
W
1-0
vs BetBoom
Mirage
Jun 6
17d ago
W
1-0
vs MIBR
Mirage
Jun 6
17d ago
W
3-0
vs Falcons
Dust2MirageAncient
May 17
37d ago
W
2-0
vs MOUZ
Dust2Nuke
May 16
38d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
Dust2Ancient
May 15
39d ago
W
2-1
vs FURIA
Dust2OverpassMirage
May 11
43d ago
W
2-0
vs The MongolZ
Dust2Ancient
May 10
44d ago
Player Matchups
G2
Ratings
Spirit
HE
HeavyGod
EntryADR 77.9KAST 75%
DO
donk
EntryADR 97.3KAST 79%
NE
NertZ
RiflerADR 78.6KAST 72%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 76.7KAST 77%
HU
huNter-
RiflerADR 74.4KAST 74%
TN
tN1R
RiflerADR 71.8KAST 73%
SU
SunPayus
AWPADR 69.9KAST 76%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 69.3KAST 75%
MA
MATYS
RiflerADR 71.9KAST 75%
ZO
zont1x
RiflerADR 67.1KAST 76%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Nuke
G2
5
–
13
SPIR
7%
93%
Win prob
OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
After First Kill
G2
SPIR
After First Death
G2
SPIR
Ban Rate
G2
SPIR
Round Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
G2
no data
Spirit
13-5
vs Aurora
Jun 12
13-1
vs 9z
Jun 7
13-2
vs MOUZ
May 16
10-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
Overpass
G2
7
–
13
SPIR
8%
92%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
Round Win Rate
G2
SPIR
After First Kill
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Map Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Recent on Overpass
G2
13-4
vs Legacy
Jun 14
8-13
vs Aurora
Jun 13
13-5
vs FUT
Jun 12
13-7
vs FUT
Jun 7
13-11
vs Vitality
Apr 30
Spirit
12-16
vs 9z
Jun 13
12-16
vs FURIA
May 11
13-2
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
9-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
Anubis
G2
9
–
13
SPIR
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
G2
SPIR
After First Kill
G2
SPIR
Round Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Opening Kills
G2
SPIR
Map Win Rate
G2
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
G2
7-13
vs Aurora
Jun 13
11-13
vs FUT
Jun 7
10-13
vs BetBoom
Apr 4
13-2
vs Fluxo
Mar 30
10-13
vs BetBoom
Mar 30
Spirit
13-4
vs Aurora
Jun 12
13-8
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
More from IEM Cologne Major 2026
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