Bo3 · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier
· 2026-07-31
Marsborne
✓
vs
regain
53%
47%
Series win probability
MARS
2–0
40%
REGA
2–1
36%
MARS
2–1
13%
REGA
2–0
11%
Actual result
Mirage
13–6
MARS
Ancient
13–4
MARS
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Marsborne is slightly favored at 53% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#109 vs #154), a strong inferno (88% win probability). regain's best shot is anubis where they hold a 92% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
42%
Ancient · Inferno · Anubis
Scenario 2
38%
Ancient · Inferno · Mirage
Scenario 3
20%
Ancient · Inferno · Dust2
Ancient
MARS
13
–
7
REGA
75%
25%
Win prob
OT 7%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
MARS
REGA
Round Win Rate
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
Recent on Ancient
Marsborne
13-6
vs NRG
Jul 29
13-5
vs LAG
Jul 28
13-1
vs regain
Jul 9
13-9
vs Festina Lente
Jun 13
3-13
vs Chicken Coop
May 31
regain
1-13
vs Marsborne
Jul 9
13-8
vs raisedbypixels
Jul 3
13-10
vs Villainous
Jun 30
Inferno
MARS
13
–
6
REGA
88%
12%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Death
MARS
REGA
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
Map Player Rating
MARS
REGA
Recent on Inferno
Marsborne
8-13
vs NRG
Jul 29
13-7
vs Overtake Sector
Jun 12
13-4
vs F5
Jun 11
13-9
vs SportsBetExpert
May 31
13-6
vs LAG
May 30
regain
22-18
vs Chicken Coop
Jul 30
13-16
vs Club 333
Jul 9
Anubis
MARS
6
–
13
REGA
8%
92%
Win prob
OT 3%
Key factors
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
After First Death
MARS
REGA
Map Player Rating
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
Recent on Anubis
Marsborne
13-9
vs Iowa Stormboar
Jun 14
13-9
vs Festina Lente
Jun 13
13-10
vs Reign Above
May 30
2-13
vs SportsBetExpert
May 24
13-8
vs M80
Apr 25
regain
13-3
vs Villainous
Jun 30
Ancient
MARS
13
–
7
REGA
75%
25%
Win prob
OT 7%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
MARS
REGA
Round Win Rate
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
Recent on Ancient
Marsborne
13-6
vs NRG
Jul 29
13-5
vs LAG
Jul 28
13-1
vs regain
Jul 9
13-9
vs Festina Lente
Jun 13
3-13
vs Chicken Coop
May 31
regain
1-13
vs Marsborne
Jul 9
13-8
vs raisedbypixels
Jul 3
13-10
vs Villainous
Jun 30
Inferno
MARS
13
–
6
REGA
88%
12%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Death
MARS
REGA
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
Map Player Rating
MARS
REGA
Recent on Inferno
Marsborne
8-13
vs NRG
Jul 29
13-7
vs Overtake Sector
Jun 12
13-4
vs F5
Jun 11
13-9
vs SportsBetExpert
May 31
13-6
vs LAG
May 30
regain
22-18
vs Chicken Coop
Jul 30
13-16
vs Club 333
Jul 9
Mirage
MARS
11
–
13
REGA
43%
57%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
After First Death
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
Opening Kills
MARS
REGA
Recent on Mirage
Marsborne
13-11
vs LAG
Jul 28
14-16
vs regain
Jul 9
13-7
vs Overtake Sector
Jun 12
13-8
vs SportsBetExpert
May 31
13-10
vs LAG
May 30
regain
5-13
vs Voca
Jul 28
11-13
vs Voca
Jul 10
13-3
vs Club 333
Jul 9
16-14
vs Marsborne
Jul 9
13-8
vs raisedbypixels
Jul 3
Ancient
MARS
13
–
7
REGA
75%
25%
Win prob
OT 7%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
MARS
REGA
Round Win Rate
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
Recent on Ancient
Marsborne
13-6
vs NRG
Jul 29
13-5
vs LAG
Jul 28
13-1
vs regain
Jul 9
13-9
vs Festina Lente
Jun 13
3-13
vs Chicken Coop
May 31
regain
1-13
vs Marsborne
Jul 9
13-8
vs raisedbypixels
Jul 3
13-10
vs Villainous
Jun 30
Inferno
MARS
13
–
6
REGA
88%
12%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Death
MARS
REGA
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
Map Player Rating
MARS
REGA
Recent on Inferno
Marsborne
8-13
vs NRG
Jul 29
13-7
vs Overtake Sector
Jun 12
13-4
vs F5
Jun 11
13-9
vs SportsBetExpert
May 31
13-6
vs LAG
May 30
regain
22-18
vs Chicken Coop
Jul 30
13-16
vs Club 333
Jul 9
Dust2
MARS
9
–
13
REGA
40%
60%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
MARS
REGA
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Round Win Rate
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
Recent on Dust2
Marsborne
2-13
vs NRG
Jul 29
13-9
vs Iowa Stormboar
Jun 14
5-13
vs Passion UA
Apr 26
4-13
vs Voca
Apr 25
13-11
vs Voca
Apr 14
regain
13-2
vs Chicken Coop
Jul 30
4-13
vs Voca
Jul 28
5-13
vs Voca
Jul 10
13-6
vs Club 333
Jul 9
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Marsborne
regain
L
1-2
vs NRG
AncientDust2Inferno
Jul 29
15d ago
W
2-0
vs LAG
MirageAncient
Jul 28
16d ago
L
1-2
vs regain
AncientCacheMirage
Jul 9
35d ago
W
2-0
vs Iowa Stormboar
Dust2Anubis
Jun 14
60d ago
W
2-1
vs Festina Lente
OverpassAnubisAncient
Jun 13
61d ago
W
2-0
vs Overtake Sector
MirageInferno
Jun 12
62d ago
W
2-0
vs F5
OverpassInferno
Jun 11
63d ago
L
0-2
vs Chicken Coop
OverpassAncient
May 31
74d ago
W
2-0
vs SportsBetExpert
InfernoMirage
May 31
74d ago
W
2-0
vs LAG
InfernoMirage
May 30
75d ago
W
2-0
vs Reign Above
AnubisAncient
May 30
75d ago
W
2-0
vs Chicken Coop
InfernoDust2
Jul 30
14d ago
L
0-2
vs Voca
MirageDust2
Jul 28
16d ago
L
0-2
vs Voca
MirageDust2
Jul 10
34d ago
W
2-1
vs Club 333
InfernoDust2Mirage
Jul 9
35d ago
W
2-1
vs Marsborne
AncientCacheMirage
Jul 9
35d ago
W
2-0
vs raisedbypixels
AncientMirage
Jul 3
41d ago
W
2-0
vs Villainous
AncientAnubis
Jun 30
44d ago
Player Matchups
Marsborne
Ratings
regain
GR
Grizz
EntryADR 88.0KAST 75%
H0
H0NeST
EntryADR 99.6KAST 74%
NI
nicx
RiflerADR 76.8KAST 78%
ZU
Zucar
RiflerADR 73.7KAST 70%
OG
ogwizard
AWPADR 69.2KAST 74%
DV
dvrk
AWPADR 75.5KAST 75%
WU
WUMBO
RiflerADR 77.5KAST 76%
GR
grape
RiflerADR 69.1KAST 71%
FR
freshie
RiflerADR 73.9KAST 74%
SA
sasha
RiflerADR 60.9KAST 69%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Cache
MARS
6
–
13
REGA
10%
90%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
After First Death
MARS
REGA
Map Player Rating
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
Recent on Cache
Marsborne
5-13
vs regain
Jul 9
regain
13-5
vs Marsborne
Jul 9
Dust2
MARS
9
–
13
REGA
40%
60%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
MARS
REGA
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Round Win Rate
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
Recent on Dust2
Marsborne
2-13
vs NRG
Jul 29
13-9
vs Iowa Stormboar
Jun 14
5-13
vs Passion UA
Apr 26
4-13
vs Voca
Apr 25
13-11
vs Voca
Apr 14
regain
13-2
vs Chicken Coop
Jul 30
4-13
vs Voca
Jul 28
5-13
vs Voca
Jul 10
13-6
vs Club 333
Jul 9
Mirage
MARS
11
–
13
REGA
43%
57%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
MARS
REGA
After First Death
MARS
REGA
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
REGA
Ranking
MARS
REGA
Opening Kills
MARS
REGA
Recent on Mirage
Marsborne
13-11
vs LAG
Jul 28
14-16
vs regain
Jul 9
13-7
vs Overtake Sector
Jun 12
13-8
vs SportsBetExpert
May 31
13-10
vs LAG
May 30
regain
5-13
vs Voca
Jul 28
11-13
vs Voca
Jul 10
13-3
vs Club 333
Jul 9
16-14
vs Marsborne
Jul 9
13-8
vs raisedbypixels
Jul 3