Project Leggy
‹ Back
Bo3  ·  StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · 2026-07-28
Marsborne ✓
vs
LAG
94%
6%
Series win probability
MARS 2–0 74%
MARS 2–1 20%
LAG 2–1 4%
LAG 2–0 2%
Actual result
Mirage 13–11 MARS
Ancient 13–5 MARS
Model Insights
Marsborne is strongly favored at 94%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.09 vs 0.97), a significant ranking advantage (#109 vs #141), a strong ancient (93% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 41% Ancient · Inferno · Mirage
Scenario 2 31% Ancient · Inferno · Dust2
Scenario 3 28% Ancient · Inferno · Cache
Ancient
MARS 13 – 4 LAG
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Round Win Rate
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Recent on Ancient
Marsborne
13-1 vs regain Jul 9
13-9 vs Festina Lente Jun 13
3-13 vs Chicken Coop May 31
13-2 vs Reign Above May 30
10-13 vs Fisher College Apr 26
LAG
6-13 vs M80 Jul 10
11-13 vs Mount Olympus Jun 12
Inferno
MARS 13 – 4 LAG
92%
8%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Round Win Rate
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
Recent on Inferno
Marsborne
13-7 vs Overtake Sector Jun 12
13-4 vs F5 Jun 11
13-9 vs SportsBetExpert May 31
13-6 vs LAG May 30
10-13 vs SportsBetExpert May 24
LAG
6-13 vs M80 Jul 10
13-9 vs Overtake Sector Jul 9
13-6 vs makeSHIFT May 30
6-13 vs Marsborne May 30
9-13 vs SportsBetExpert May 30
Mirage
MARS 13 – 7 LAG
79%
21%
Win prob OT 7% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Ranking
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Recent on Mirage
Marsborne
14-16 vs regain Jul 9
13-7 vs Overtake Sector Jun 12
13-8 vs SportsBetExpert May 31
13-10 vs LAG May 30
22-20 vs Overtake Sector May 24
LAG
13-11 vs Overtake Sector Jul 9
13-6 vs makeSHIFT May 30
10-13 vs Marsborne May 30
Ancient
MARS 13 – 4 LAG
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Round Win Rate
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Recent on Ancient
Marsborne
13-1 vs regain Jul 9
13-9 vs Festina Lente Jun 13
3-13 vs Chicken Coop May 31
13-2 vs Reign Above May 30
10-13 vs Fisher College Apr 26
LAG
6-13 vs M80 Jul 10
11-13 vs Mount Olympus Jun 12
Inferno
MARS 13 – 4 LAG
92%
8%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Round Win Rate
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
Recent on Inferno
Marsborne
13-7 vs Overtake Sector Jun 12
13-4 vs F5 Jun 11
13-9 vs SportsBetExpert May 31
13-6 vs LAG May 30
10-13 vs SportsBetExpert May 24
LAG
6-13 vs M80 Jul 10
13-9 vs Overtake Sector Jul 9
13-6 vs makeSHIFT May 30
6-13 vs Marsborne May 30
9-13 vs SportsBetExpert May 30
Dust2
MARS 13 – 11 LAG
62%
38%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
Round Win Rate
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Recent on Dust2
Marsborne
13-9 vs Iowa Stormboar Jun 14
5-13 vs Passion UA Apr 26
4-13 vs Voca Apr 25
13-11 vs Voca Apr 14
LAG
13-2 vs absolute cinema May 30
13-9 vs Wanted Goons May 30
Ancient
MARS 13 – 4 LAG
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Round Win Rate
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Recent on Ancient
Marsborne
13-1 vs regain Jul 9
13-9 vs Festina Lente Jun 13
3-13 vs Chicken Coop May 31
13-2 vs Reign Above May 30
10-13 vs Fisher College Apr 26
LAG
6-13 vs M80 Jul 10
11-13 vs Mount Olympus Jun 12
Inferno
MARS 13 – 4 LAG
92%
8%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Round Win Rate
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
Recent on Inferno
Marsborne
13-7 vs Overtake Sector Jun 12
13-4 vs F5 Jun 11
13-9 vs SportsBetExpert May 31
13-6 vs LAG May 30
10-13 vs SportsBetExpert May 24
LAG
6-13 vs M80 Jul 10
13-9 vs Overtake Sector Jul 9
13-6 vs makeSHIFT May 30
6-13 vs Marsborne May 30
9-13 vs SportsBetExpert May 30
Cache
MARS 13 – 4 LAG
97%
3%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Opening Kills
MARS
LAG
Recent on Cache
Marsborne
5-13 vs regain Jul 9
LAG
no data
Recent Results last 11 matches
Marsborne
LAG
L 1-2 vs regain AncientCacheMirage Jul 9 35d ago
W 2-0 vs Iowa Stormboar Dust2Anubis Jun 14 60d ago
W 2-1 vs Festina Lente OverpassAnubisAncient Jun 13 61d ago
W 2-0 vs Overtake Sector MirageInferno Jun 12 62d ago
W 2-0 vs F5 OverpassInferno Jun 11 63d ago
L 0-2 vs Chicken Coop OverpassAncient May 31 74d ago
W 2-0 vs SportsBetExpert InfernoMirage May 31 74d ago
W 2-0 vs LAG InfernoMirage May 30 75d ago
W 2-0 vs Reign Above AnubisAncient May 30 75d ago
L 0-2 vs SportsBetExpert InfernoAnubis May 24 81d ago
W 2-0 vs Overtake Sector MirageInferno May 24 81d ago
L 0-2 vs M80 AncientInferno Jul 10 34d ago
W 2-0 vs Overtake Sector MirageInferno Jul 9 35d ago
L 0-2 vs Mount Olympus AncientNuke Jun 12 62d ago
W 2-0 vs makeSHIFT MirageInferno May 30 75d ago
L 0-2 vs Marsborne InfernoMirage May 30 75d ago
W 2-0 vs absolute cinema Dust2Nuke May 30 75d ago
W 2-0 vs Wanted Goons NukeDust2 May 30 75d ago
L 1-2 vs SportsBetExpert NukeAnubisInferno May 30 75d ago
Player Matchups
Marsborne
Ratings
LAG
GR
Grizz
EntryADR 88.5KAST 75%
1.24 vs 1.23
CR
Cryptic
EntryADR 89.2KAST 74%
NI
nicx
RiflerADR 77.4KAST 78%
1.16 vs 1.07
SA
Sandman
RiflerADR 73.6KAST 75%
OG
ogwizard
AWPADR 71.0KAST 75%
1.15 vs 0.99
DJ
djay
RiflerADR 70.1KAST 71%
WU
WUMBO
RiflerADR 77.0KAST 76%
1.11 vs 0.90
BW
Bwills
RiflerADR 78.1KAST 70%
FR
freshie
RiflerADR 74.9KAST 75%
1.04 vs 0.73
SL
SLIGHT
AWPADR 47.6KAST 67%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Cache
MARS 13 – 4 LAG
97%
3%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Opening Kills
MARS
LAG
Recent on Cache
Marsborne
5-13 vs regain Jul 9
LAG
no data
Anubis
MARS 13 – 7 LAG
85%
15%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Opening Kills
MARS
LAG
Ranking
MARS
LAG
Recent on Anubis
Marsborne
13-9 vs Iowa Stormboar Jun 14
13-9 vs Festina Lente Jun 13
13-10 vs Reign Above May 30
2-13 vs SportsBetExpert May 24
13-8 vs M80 Apr 25
LAG
11-13 vs SportsBetExpert May 30
Nuke
MARS 8 – 13 LAG
27%
73%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Ban Rate
MARS
LAG
Recent on Nuke
Marsborne
3-13 vs Voca Apr 14
LAG
8-13 vs Mount Olympus Jun 12
13-4 vs absolute cinema May 30
13-8 vs Wanted Goons May 30
16-12 vs SportsBetExpert May 30
Dust2
MARS 13 – 11 LAG
62%
38%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MARS
LAG
After First Death
MARS
LAG
After First Kill
MARS
LAG
Round Win Rate
MARS
LAG
Map Player Rating
MARS
LAG
Recent on Dust2
Marsborne
13-9 vs Iowa Stormboar Jun 14
5-13 vs Passion UA Apr 26
4-13 vs Voca Apr 25
13-11 vs Voca Apr 14
LAG
13-2 vs absolute cinema May 30
13-9 vs Wanted Goons May 30