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Bo3  ·  KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · 2026-07-26
Rune Eaters ✗
vs
NOVAQ
56%
44%
Series win probability
RE 2–0 32%
NOVA 2–1 26%
RE 2–1 24%
NOVA 2–0 18%
Actual result
Ancient 13–6 RE
Mirage 13–5 NOVA
Dust2 13–8 NOVA
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Rune Eaters is slightly favored at 56% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#99 vs #85), a strong inferno (71% win probability). NOVAQ's best shot is dust2 where they hold a 60% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 46% Dust2 · Inferno · Ancient
Scenario 2 33% Inferno · Ancient · Mirage
Scenario 3 21% Inferno · Ancient · Cache
Dust2
RE 10 – 13 NOVA
40%
60%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Opening Kills
RE
NOVA
Map Win Rate
RE
NOVA
Round Win Rate
RE
NOVA
Ranking
RE
NOVA
Recent on Dust2
Rune Eaters
9-13 vs ex-RUSTEC Jul 25
13-7 vs ALTAY Jul 24
7-13 vs Black Phoenix Jul 22
10-13 vs Omega Jul 5
13-2 vs PCIFIC Jun 26
NOVAQ
13-9 vs Orda Jul 24
13-7 vs The Huns Jun 25
8-13 vs Rune Eaters Jun 25
13-10 vs Rune Eaters Jun 24
Inferno
RE 13 – 8 NOVA
71%
29%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
T 5v4
RE
NOVA
Ranking
RE
NOVA
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Opponent-Rating Diff
RE
NOVA
Recent on Inferno
Rune Eaters
13-8 vs Omega Jul 25
13-9 vs DEPO Jul 24
7-13 vs Black Phoenix Jul 22
9-13 vs Omega Jul 5
19-22 vs PCIFIC Jun 26
NOVAQ
13-11 vs Omega Jul 24
19-17 vs Rune Eaters Jun 25
9-13 vs Rune Eaters Jun 24
Ancient
RE 10 – 13 NOVA
41%
59%
Win prob OT 12% ✗
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Opening Kills
RE
NOVA
Map Win Rate
RE
NOVA
Opponent-Rating Diff
RE
NOVA
Recent on Ancient
Rune Eaters
13-11 vs DEPO Jul 24
13-8 vs Omega Jul 5
8-13 vs NOVAQ Jun 24
13-7 vs Omega May 31
7-13 vs HOTU May 31
NOVAQ
13-10 vs DEPO Jul 25
13-8 vs Omega Jul 24
6-13 vs The Huns Jun 25
13-8 vs Rune Eaters Jun 24
Inferno
RE 13 – 8 NOVA
71%
29%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
T 5v4
RE
NOVA
Ranking
RE
NOVA
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Opponent-Rating Diff
RE
NOVA
Recent on Inferno
Rune Eaters
13-8 vs Omega Jul 25
13-9 vs DEPO Jul 24
7-13 vs Black Phoenix Jul 22
9-13 vs Omega Jul 5
19-22 vs PCIFIC Jun 26
NOVAQ
13-11 vs Omega Jul 24
19-17 vs Rune Eaters Jun 25
9-13 vs Rune Eaters Jun 24
Ancient
RE 10 – 13 NOVA
41%
59%
Win prob OT 12% ✗
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Opening Kills
RE
NOVA
Map Win Rate
RE
NOVA
Opponent-Rating Diff
RE
NOVA
Recent on Ancient
Rune Eaters
13-11 vs DEPO Jul 24
13-8 vs Omega Jul 5
8-13 vs NOVAQ Jun 24
13-7 vs Omega May 31
7-13 vs HOTU May 31
NOVAQ
13-10 vs DEPO Jul 25
13-8 vs Omega Jul 24
6-13 vs The Huns Jun 25
13-8 vs Rune Eaters Jun 24
Mirage
RE 13 – 10 NOVA
65%
35%
Win prob OT 11% ✗
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Round Win Rate
RE
NOVA
Ban Rate
RE
NOVA
Experience
RE
NOVA
Recent on Mirage
Rune Eaters
10-13 vs ex-RUSTEC Jul 25
13-3 vs Omega Jul 25
13-6 vs Black Phoenix Jul 22
14-16 vs Omega Jul 5
9-13 vs PCIFIC Jun 26
NOVAQ
13-1 vs DEPO Jul 25
14-16 vs Rune Eaters Jun 25
Inferno
RE 13 – 8 NOVA
71%
29%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
T 5v4
RE
NOVA
Ranking
RE
NOVA
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Opponent-Rating Diff
RE
NOVA
Recent on Inferno
Rune Eaters
13-8 vs Omega Jul 25
13-9 vs DEPO Jul 24
7-13 vs Black Phoenix Jul 22
9-13 vs Omega Jul 5
19-22 vs PCIFIC Jun 26
NOVAQ
13-11 vs Omega Jul 24
19-17 vs Rune Eaters Jun 25
9-13 vs Rune Eaters Jun 24
Ancient
RE 10 – 13 NOVA
41%
59%
Win prob OT 12% ✗
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Opening Kills
RE
NOVA
Map Win Rate
RE
NOVA
Opponent-Rating Diff
RE
NOVA
Recent on Ancient
Rune Eaters
13-11 vs DEPO Jul 24
13-8 vs Omega Jul 5
8-13 vs NOVAQ Jun 24
13-7 vs Omega May 31
7-13 vs HOTU May 31
NOVAQ
13-10 vs DEPO Jul 25
13-8 vs Omega Jul 24
6-13 vs The Huns Jun 25
13-8 vs Rune Eaters Jun 24
Cache
RE 13 – 10 NOVA
59%
41%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
RE
NOVA
Opponent-Rating Diff
RE
NOVA
Opening Score
RE
NOVA
Days With Lineup Diff
RE
NOVA
Trade Score
RE
NOVA
Recent on Cache
Rune Eaters
no data
NOVAQ
no data
Recent Results last 11 matches
Rune Eaters
NOVAQ
L 1-2 vs ex-RUSTEC NukeMirageDust2 Jul 25 19d ago
W 2-0 vs Omega InfernoMirage Jul 25 19d ago
W 1-0 vs ALTAY Dust2 Jul 24 20d ago
W 2-0 vs DEPO AncientInferno Jul 24 20d ago
L 1-2 vs Black Phoenix Dust2MirageInferno Jul 22 22d ago
L 2-3 vs Omega Dust2MirageNukeAncientInferno Jul 5 39d ago
L 1-2 vs PCIFIC Dust2MirageInferno Jun 26 48d ago
W 2-0 vs Game Point Dust2Mirage Jun 25 49d ago
W 2-1 vs NOVAQ InfernoMirageDust2 Jun 25 49d ago
L 1-2 vs NOVAQ InfernoAncientDust2 Jun 24 50d ago
L 0-2 vs HOTU Dust2Nuke May 31 74d ago
W 2-0 vs DEPO AncientMirage Jul 25 19d ago
W 1-0 vs Orda Dust2 Jul 24 20d ago
W 2-0 vs Omega AncientInferno Jul 24 20d ago
L 1-2 vs The Huns Dust2AncientOverpass Jun 25 49d ago
L 1-2 vs Rune Eaters InfernoMirageDust2 Jun 25 49d ago
W 2-1 vs Rune Eaters InfernoAncientDust2 Jun 24 50d ago
Player Matchups
Rune Eaters
Ratings
NOVAQ
DE
demente
EntryADR 82.1KAST 76%
1.20 vs 1.34
TA
tasman
EntryADR 90.0KAST 77%
NO
noni
AWPADR 69.6KAST 71%
1.05 vs 1.11
PU
Pump
AWPADR 74.6KAST 77%
HE
her1tage
RiflerADR 73.7KAST 72%
1.04 vs 0.91
NE
neaLaN
RiflerADR 67.2KAST 69%
FO
forkyz
RiflerADR 73.2KAST 71%
1.00 vs 0.89
AD
AdreN
RiflerADR 62.0KAST 72%
KU
kumao
RiflerADR 70.2KAST 72%
0.99 vs —
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Anubis
RE 13 – 7 NOVA
86%
14%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
Round Win Rate
RE
NOVA
Ranking
RE
NOVA
T 5v4
RE
NOVA
Opening Kills
RE
NOVA
Recent on Anubis
Rune Eaters
4-13 vs fnatic Apr 25
13-10 vs eLITenergy Apr 7
NOVAQ
no data
Nuke
RE 13 – 8 NOVA
78%
22%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
Map Player Rating
RE
NOVA
Ranking
RE
NOVA
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Round Win Rate
RE
NOVA
Recent on Nuke
Rune Eaters
13-6 vs ex-RUSTEC Jul 25
13-9 vs Omega Jul 5
6-13 vs HOTU May 31
7-13 vs HOTU May 31
8-13 vs HOTU May 29
NOVAQ
no data
Mirage
RE 13 – 10 NOVA
65%
35%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
RE
NOVA
After First Death
RE
NOVA
Round Win Rate
RE
NOVA
Ban Rate
RE
NOVA
Experience
RE
NOVA
Recent on Mirage
Rune Eaters
10-13 vs ex-RUSTEC Jul 25
13-3 vs Omega Jul 25
13-6 vs Black Phoenix Jul 22
14-16 vs Omega Jul 5
9-13 vs PCIFIC Jun 26
NOVAQ
13-1 vs DEPO Jul 25
14-16 vs Rune Eaters Jun 25
Cache
RE 13 – 10 NOVA
59%
41%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
RE
NOVA
Opponent-Rating Diff
RE
NOVA
Opening Score
RE
NOVA
Days With Lineup Diff
RE
NOVA
Trade Score
RE
NOVA
Recent on Cache
Rune Eaters
no data
NOVAQ
no data