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Bo3  ·  Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · 2026-07-31
Lavked
vs
megoshort
54%
46%
Series win probability
LAVK 2–0 33%
MEGO 2–1 28%
LAVK 2–1 20%
MEGO 2–0 18%
Actual result
Cache 16–14 MEGO
Mirage 16–14 MEGO
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Lavked is slightly favored at 54% but only leads on 3 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (0.97 vs 0.86), a significant ranking advantage (#107 vs #255), a strong mirage (63% win probability). Either team could take this — small edges in side performance and veto are the difference.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 55% Mirage · Ancient · Dust2
Scenario 2 24% Mirage · Ancient · Inferno
Scenario 3 20% Mirage · Ancient · Anubis
Mirage
LAVK 13 10 MEGO
63%
37%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
Overall Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Multi-Kills
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Mirage
Lavked
4-13 vs ex-RUBY Jul 31
8-13 vs Nemiga Jul 28
14-16 vs K28 Jul 28
13-3 vs FIN Jul 27
10-13 vs Butterfly Jul 26
megoshort
13-9 vs los kogutos Jul 26
13-4 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
16-14 vs Privateer Jul 23
11-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
7-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
Ancient
LAVK 13 11 MEGO
55%
45%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
Map Player Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Round Win Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Ancient
Lavked
4-13 vs Phantom Jul 30
10-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 28
11-13 vs Just Players Jul 15
megoshort
9-13 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
8-13 vs Privateer Jul 23
8-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
13-6 vs Julie&Cie Jul 15
Dust2
LAVK 13 11 MEGO
62%
38%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
Round Win Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Map Win Rate
LAVK
MEGO
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Dust2
Lavked
5-13 vs Nemiga Jul 28
13-8 vs K28 Jul 28
5-13 vs ex-RUSTEC Jul 23
11-13 vs Acend Jun 17
13-5 vs Misa Jun 9
megoshort
13-10 vs los kogutos Jul 26
13-10 vs ex-MANA Jul 25
13-6 vs Julie&Cie Jul 15
10-13 vs Honvéd Jul 14
Mirage
LAVK 13 10 MEGO
63%
37%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
Overall Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Multi-Kills
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Mirage
Lavked
4-13 vs ex-RUBY Jul 31
8-13 vs Nemiga Jul 28
14-16 vs K28 Jul 28
13-3 vs FIN Jul 27
10-13 vs Butterfly Jul 26
megoshort
13-9 vs los kogutos Jul 26
13-4 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
16-14 vs Privateer Jul 23
11-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
7-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
Ancient
LAVK 13 11 MEGO
55%
45%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
Map Player Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Round Win Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Ancient
Lavked
4-13 vs Phantom Jul 30
10-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 28
11-13 vs Just Players Jul 15
megoshort
9-13 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
8-13 vs Privateer Jul 23
8-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
13-6 vs Julie&Cie Jul 15
Inferno
LAVK 7 13 MEGO
14%
86%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
Ban Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Round Win Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Map Win Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Inferno
Lavked
no data
megoshort
13-10 vs ex-MANA Jul 25
5-13 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
9-13 vs Privateer Jul 23
5-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
Mirage
LAVK 13 10 MEGO
63%
37%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
Overall Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Multi-Kills
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Mirage
Lavked
4-13 vs ex-RUBY Jul 31
8-13 vs Nemiga Jul 28
14-16 vs K28 Jul 28
13-3 vs FIN Jul 27
10-13 vs Butterfly Jul 26
megoshort
13-9 vs los kogutos Jul 26
13-4 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
16-14 vs Privateer Jul 23
11-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
7-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
Ancient
LAVK 13 11 MEGO
55%
45%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
Map Player Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Round Win Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Ancient
Lavked
4-13 vs Phantom Jul 30
10-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 28
11-13 vs Just Players Jul 15
megoshort
9-13 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
8-13 vs Privateer Jul 23
8-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
13-6 vs Julie&Cie Jul 15
Anubis
LAVK 16 14 MEGO
52%
48%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
Map Player Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Overall Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Anubis
Lavked
4-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 28
6-13 vs K28 Jul 28
13-11 vs Butterfly Jul 26
13-7 vs ex-RUSTEC Jul 23
13-11 vs MANA Jun 5
megoshort
no data
Recent Results last 11 matches
Lavked
megoshort
L 0-2 vs Phantom AncientNuke Jul 30 14d ago
L 0-2 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects AnubisAncient Jul 28 16d ago
L 0-2 vs Nemiga MirageDust2 Jul 28 16d ago
L 1-2 vs K28 Dust2MirageAnubis Jul 28 16d ago
W 2-0 vs FIN MirageNuke Jul 27 17d ago
W 2-1 vs Butterfly AnubisMirageNuke Jul 26 18d ago
W 2-1 vs ex-RUSTEC Dust2MirageAnubis Jul 23 21d ago
L 0-2 vs Just Players MirageAncient Jul 15 29d ago
L 1-2 vs Acend OverpassMirageDust2 Jun 17 57d ago
W 2-0 vs Misa Dust2Mirage Jun 9 65d ago
W 2-1 vs MANA MirageDust2Anubis Jun 5 69d ago
W 2-0 vs los kogutos MirageDust2 Jul 26 18d ago
W 2-0 vs ex-MANA Dust2Inferno Jul 25 19d ago
L 1-2 vs ROUNDS MirageInfernoAncient Jul 24 20d ago
L 1-2 vs Privateer InfernoMirageAncient Jul 23 21d ago
L 0-2 vs G2 Ares AncientMirage Jul 19 25d ago
L 0-2 vs SAW Youngsters MirageInferno Jul 15 29d ago
W 2-0 vs Julie&Cie Dust2Ancient Jul 15 29d ago
L 0-2 vs Honvéd MirageDust2 Jul 14 30d ago
Player Matchups
Lavked
Ratings
megoshort
XM
xm1nd
AWPADR 72.0KAST 71%
1.06 vs 1.05
MO
mogv
RiflerADR 80.8KAST 64%
1N
1NVISIBLEE
EntryADR 77.9KAST 66%
0.97 vs 0.99
ZE
zen
AWPADR 72.7KAST 69%
SO
sol
RiflerADR 64.8KAST 70%
0.93 vs 0.96
TW
Twinkey
EntryADR 70.0KAST 68%
KE
KENSI
RiflerADR 66.9KAST 69%
0.90 vs
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Nuke
LAVK 13 6 MEGO
90%
10%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
Ban Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Map Player Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Nuke
Lavked
7-13 vs ex-RUBY Jul 31
6-13 vs Phantom Jul 30
13-0 vs FIN Jul 27
13-11 vs Butterfly Jul 26
megoshort
no data
Inferno
LAVK 7 13 MEGO
14%
86%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
Ban Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Round Win Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Map Win Rate
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Inferno
Lavked
no data
megoshort
13-10 vs ex-MANA Jul 25
5-13 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
9-13 vs Privateer Jul 23
5-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
Cache
LAVK 10 13 MEGO
41%
59%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
Overall Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Opening Score
LAVK
MEGO
Days With Lineup Diff
LAVK
MEGO
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Cache
Lavked
no data
megoshort
no data
Anubis
LAVK 16 14 MEGO
52%
48%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
MEGO
After First Death
LAVK
MEGO
Ranking
LAVK
MEGO
Map Player Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Overall Rating
LAVK
MEGO
Recent on Anubis
Lavked
4-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 28
6-13 vs K28 Jul 28
13-11 vs Butterfly Jul 26
13-7 vs ex-RUSTEC Jul 23
13-11 vs MANA Jun 5
megoshort
no data
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