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Bo3  ·  Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · 2026-07-25
ex-MANA
vs
megoshort
56%
44%
Series win probability
EX-M 2–0 34%
MEGO 2–1 26%
EX-M 2–1 23%
MEGO 2–0 18%
Actual result
Dust2 13–10 MEGO
Inferno 13–10 MEGO
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — ex-MANA is slightly favored at 56% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.04 vs 0.86), a significant ranking advantage (#203 vs #254), a strong mirage (62% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 72% Dust2 · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 2 17% Dust2 · Mirage · Inferno
Scenario 3 11% Dust2 · Mirage · Anubis
Dust2
EX-M 13 11 MEGO
59%
41%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
After First Kill
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
T 5v4
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Dust2
ex-MANA
5-13 vs Misa Jul 19
13-7 vs OlyBet Jul 18
12-16 vs benched gods Jul 17
7-13 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 15
6-13 vs BIG Academy Jul 14
megoshort
13-6 vs Julie&Cie Jul 15
10-13 vs Honvéd Jul 14
Mirage
EX-M 13 9 MEGO
62%
38%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Map Player Rating
EX-M
MEGO
Map Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Mirage
ex-MANA
13-10 vs Misa Jul 19
13-3 vs OlyBet Jul 18
16-13 vs Honvéd Jun 24
megoshort
13-4 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
16-14 vs Privateer Jul 23
11-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
7-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
7-13 vs Honvéd Jul 14
Ancient
EX-M 16 14 MEGO
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Map Player Rating
EX-M
MEGO
After First Kill
EX-M
MEGO
Overall Rating
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Ancient
ex-MANA
8-13 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 15
14-16 vs BIG Academy Jul 14
13-10 vs DONSTU Jul 13
10-13 vs WBT Jul 4
megoshort
9-13 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
8-13 vs Privateer Jul 23
8-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
13-6 vs Julie&Cie Jul 15
Dust2
EX-M 13 11 MEGO
59%
41%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
After First Kill
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
T 5v4
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Dust2
ex-MANA
5-13 vs Misa Jul 19
13-7 vs OlyBet Jul 18
12-16 vs benched gods Jul 17
7-13 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 15
6-13 vs BIG Academy Jul 14
megoshort
13-6 vs Julie&Cie Jul 15
10-13 vs Honvéd Jul 14
Mirage
EX-M 13 9 MEGO
62%
38%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Map Player Rating
EX-M
MEGO
Map Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Mirage
ex-MANA
13-10 vs Misa Jul 19
13-3 vs OlyBet Jul 18
16-13 vs Honvéd Jun 24
megoshort
13-4 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
16-14 vs Privateer Jul 23
11-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
7-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
7-13 vs Honvéd Jul 14
Inferno
EX-M 11 13 MEGO
42%
58%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
After First Kill
EX-M
MEGO
Map Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Inferno
ex-MANA
11-13 vs Misa Jul 19
megoshort
5-13 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
9-13 vs Privateer Jul 23
5-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
Dust2
EX-M 13 11 MEGO
59%
41%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
After First Kill
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
T 5v4
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Dust2
ex-MANA
5-13 vs Misa Jul 19
13-7 vs OlyBet Jul 18
12-16 vs benched gods Jul 17
7-13 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 15
6-13 vs BIG Academy Jul 14
megoshort
13-6 vs Julie&Cie Jul 15
10-13 vs Honvéd Jul 14
Mirage
EX-M 13 9 MEGO
62%
38%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Map Player Rating
EX-M
MEGO
Map Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Mirage
ex-MANA
13-10 vs Misa Jul 19
13-3 vs OlyBet Jul 18
16-13 vs Honvéd Jun 24
megoshort
13-4 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
16-14 vs Privateer Jul 23
11-13 vs G2 Ares Jul 19
7-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
7-13 vs Honvéd Jul 14
Anubis
EX-M 10 13 MEGO
46%
54%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
EX-M
MEGO
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
Map Player Rating
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Anubis
ex-MANA
10-13 vs benched gods Jul 17
10-13 vs DONSTU Jul 13
megoshort
no data
Recent Results last 8 matches
ex-MANA
megoshort
L 1-2 vs Misa MirageDust2Inferno Jul 19 25d ago
W 2-1 vs OlyBet MirageNukeDust2 Jul 18 26d ago
L 0-2 vs benched gods Dust2Anubis Jul 17 27d ago
L 0-2 vs Inner Circle Academy Dust2Ancient Jul 15 29d ago
L 0-2 vs BIG Academy AncientDust2 Jul 14 30d ago
W 2-1 vs DONSTU Dust2AnubisAncient Jul 13 31d ago
L 0-2 vs WBT Dust2Ancient Jul 4 40d ago
W 2-0 vs Honvéd Dust2Mirage Jun 24 50d ago
L 1-2 vs ROUNDS MirageInfernoAncient Jul 24 20d ago
L 1-2 vs Privateer InfernoMirageAncient Jul 23 21d ago
L 0-2 vs G2 Ares AncientMirage Jul 19 25d ago
L 0-2 vs SAW Youngsters MirageInferno Jul 15 29d ago
W 2-0 vs Julie&Cie Dust2Ancient Jul 15 29d ago
L 0-2 vs Honvéd MirageDust2 Jul 14 30d ago
Player Matchups
ex-MANA
Ratings
megoshort
BL
BledarD
AWPADR 77.6KAST 70%
1.06 vs 1.03
MO
mogv
EntryADR 79.0KAST 64%
AM
ammar
EntryADR 71.0KAST 68%
0.98 vs 0.98
ZE
zen
AWPADR 72.8KAST 68%
CE
cerber
RiflerADR 71.9KAST 68%
0.97 vs 0.91
TW
Twinkey
RiflerADR 68.5KAST 68%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Nuke
EX-M 13 5 MEGO
93%
7%
Win prob OT 3%
Key factors
After First Kill
EX-M
MEGO
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Map Player Rating
EX-M
MEGO
Opening Kills
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Nuke
ex-MANA
14-16 vs OlyBet Jul 18
megoshort
no data
Inferno
EX-M 11 13 MEGO
42%
58%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
After First Kill
EX-M
MEGO
Map Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Inferno
ex-MANA
11-13 vs Misa Jul 19
megoshort
5-13 vs ROUNDS Jul 24
9-13 vs Privateer Jul 23
5-13 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 15
Anubis
EX-M 10 13 MEGO
46%
54%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
EX-M
MEGO
After First Death
EX-M
MEGO
Map Player Rating
EX-M
MEGO
Ranking
EX-M
MEGO
Round Win Rate
EX-M
MEGO
Recent on Anubis
ex-MANA
10-13 vs benched gods Jul 17
10-13 vs DONSTU Jul 13
megoshort
no data
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