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Bo3  ·  StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · 2026-07-22
HOTU
vs
Astralis ✗
44%
56%
Series win probability
ASTR 2–1 30%
ASTR 2–0 26%
HOTU 2–0 23%
HOTU 2–1 20%
Actual result
Cache 16–14 HOTU
Ancient 16–13 HOTU
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Astralis is slightly favored at 56% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#20 vs #42). HOTU's best shot is nuke where they hold a 65% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 42% Dust2 · Ancient · Nuke
Scenario 2 39% Dust2 · Ancient · Cache
Scenario 3 19% Dust2 · Ancient · Mirage
Dust2
HOTU 11 – 13 ASTR
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
HOTU
13-8 vs HEROIC Jul 21
3-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
16-13 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-2 vs BRUTE Jul 12
4-13 vs GenOne Jun 18
Astralis
10-13 vs FOKUS Jul 21
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
3-13 vs FUT Apr 11
Ancient
HOTU 16 – 14 ASTR
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
HOTU
0-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
13-3 vs Vexar Jul 12
8-13 vs TDK Jun 16
13-7 vs Rune Eaters May 31
13-9 vs DEPO May 30
Astralis
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-11 vs Liquid May 11
Nuke
HOTU 13 – 9 ASTR
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Opening Kills
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
HOTU
13-9 vs KOLESIE Jun 14
13-6 vs Rune Eaters May 31
13-7 vs Rune Eaters May 31
13-8 vs Rune Eaters May 29
13-16 vs Tricked May 21
Astralis
11-13 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-1 vs FOKUS Jul 21
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
5-13 vs 9z Jun 6
Dust2
HOTU 11 – 13 ASTR
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
HOTU
13-8 vs HEROIC Jul 21
3-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
16-13 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-2 vs BRUTE Jul 12
4-13 vs GenOne Jun 18
Astralis
10-13 vs FOKUS Jul 21
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
3-13 vs FUT Apr 11
Ancient
HOTU 16 – 14 ASTR
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
HOTU
0-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
13-3 vs Vexar Jul 12
8-13 vs TDK Jun 16
13-7 vs Rune Eaters May 31
13-9 vs DEPO May 30
Astralis
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-11 vs Liquid May 11
Cache
HOTU 6 – 13 ASTR
8%
92%
Win prob OT 4% ✗
Key factors
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Opening Kills
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Cache
HOTU
13-6 vs HEROIC Jul 21
13-8 vs QUAZAR Jul 14
26-28 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-6 vs BRUTE Jul 12
Astralis
13-7 vs Nemesis Jul 21
Dust2
HOTU 11 – 13 ASTR
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
HOTU
13-8 vs HEROIC Jul 21
3-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
16-13 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-2 vs BRUTE Jul 12
4-13 vs GenOne Jun 18
Astralis
10-13 vs FOKUS Jul 21
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
3-13 vs FUT Apr 11
Ancient
HOTU 16 – 14 ASTR
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
HOTU
0-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
13-3 vs Vexar Jul 12
8-13 vs TDK Jun 16
13-7 vs Rune Eaters May 31
13-9 vs DEPO May 30
Astralis
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-11 vs Liquid May 11
Mirage
HOTU 13 – 8 ASTR
65%
35%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
HOTU
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 21
13-9 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-0 vs Vexar Jul 12
Astralis
13-11 vs SINNERS May 13
3-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-5 vs FUT Apr 30
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
8-13 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
Recent Results last 11 matches
HOTU
Astralis
W 2-1 vs HEROIC MirageCacheDust2 Jul 21 23d ago
W 2-0 vs QUAZAR AnubisCache Jul 14 30d ago
L 0-2 vs fnatic AncientDust2 Jul 14 30d ago
W 2-1 vs Entropy CacheDust2Mirage Jul 13 31d ago
W 2-0 vs Vexar AncientMirage Jul 12 32d ago
W 2-0 vs BRUTE Dust2Cache Jul 12 32d ago
L 0-2 vs GenOne Dust2Overpass Jun 18 56d ago
L 0-2 vs TDK OverpassAncient Jun 16 58d ago
W 2-0 vs KOLESIE NukeDust2 Jun 14 60d ago
W 2-0 vs Rune Eaters Dust2Nuke May 31 74d ago
W 2-1 vs Rune Eaters Dust2NukeAncient May 31 74d ago
W 2-1 vs Nemesis NukeAncientCache Jul 21 23d ago
W 2-1 vs FOKUS Dust2AncientNuke Jul 21 23d ago
L 0-2 vs paiN NukeOverpass Jun 8 66d ago
L 0-1 vs TYLOO Nuke Jun 7 67d ago
W 1-0 vs GamerLegion Ancient Jun 6 68d ago
L 0-1 vs 9z Nuke Jun 6 68d ago
W 2-0 vs SINNERS MirageInferno May 13 92d ago
L 0-2 vs GamerLegion MirageAncient May 13 92d ago
L 0-2 vs Legacy Dust2Nuke May 12 93d ago
W 2-0 vs Liquid Dust2Ancient May 11 94d ago
L 0-2 vs GamerLegion OverpassInferno May 1 104d ago
Player Matchups
HOTU
Ratings
Astralis
MI
mizu
EntryADR 81.2KAST 72%
1.23 vs 1.18
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 82.7KAST 72%
N0
n0rb3r7
RiflerADR 78.9KAST 71%
1.10 vs 1.07
JA
jabbi
EntryADR 76.2KAST 69%
DW
dwushka
RiflerADR 76.7KAST 72%
1.10 vs 0.97
RY
ryu
RiflerADR 69.5KAST 71%
FR
frontales
AWPADR 68.4KAST 74%
1.10 vs 0.95
PH
phzy
AWPADR 64.5KAST 70%
KA
kade0
RiflerADR 67.8KAST 69%
0.97 vs 0.85
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 60.3KAST 69%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Inferno
HOTU 5 – 13 ASTR
8%
92%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Ban Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
HOTU
no data
Astralis
13-8 vs SINNERS May 13
14-16 vs GamerLegion May 1
13-2 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
10-13 vs Aurora Mar 14
13-4 vs FURIA Mar 10
Cache
HOTU 6 – 13 ASTR
8%
92%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Opening Kills
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Cache
HOTU
13-6 vs HEROIC Jul 21
13-8 vs QUAZAR Jul 14
26-28 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-6 vs BRUTE Jul 12
Astralis
13-7 vs Nemesis Jul 21
Anubis
HOTU 13 – 7 ASTR
85%
15%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Ban Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Anubis
HOTU
13-9 vs QUAZAR Jul 14
13-3 vs PCIFIC May 29
Astralis
no data
Mirage
HOTU 13 – 8 ASTR
65%
35%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
HOTU
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 21
13-9 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-0 vs Vexar Jul 12
Astralis
13-11 vs SINNERS May 13
3-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-5 vs FUT Apr 30
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
8-13 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
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