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Bo5  ·  BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals · 2026-08-02
Spirit
vs
MOUZ
100%
0%
Series win probability
SPIR 3–0 83%
SPIR 3–1 15%
SPIR 3–2 2%
MOUZ 3–2 0%
MOUZ 3–1 0%
Actual result
Dust2 13–8 MOUZ
Mirage 13–4 MOUZ
Ancient 13–9 SPIR
Nuke 13–10 MOUZ
Model Insights
Spirit is strongly favored at 100%, holding a map advantage on 5 of 5 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.15 vs 1.09), a strong nuke (97% win probability).
Predicted Maps 5 maps
Scenario 1 100% Dust2 · Mirage · Nuke · Ancient · Cache
Dust2
SPIR 13 5 MOUZ
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
MOUZ
After First Kill
SPIR
MOUZ
After First Death
SPIR
MOUZ
Round Win Rate
SPIR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
SPIR
MOUZ
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
13-6 vs FaZe Aug 1
13-7 vs Liquid Jul 30
13-0 vs 100 Thieves Jul 26
11-13 vs OG Jul 23
12-16 vs Falcons Jun 20
MOUZ
13-9 vs Astralis Aug 1
10-13 vs 3DMAX Jul 30
13-10 vs FOKUS Jul 25
13-7 vs Vitality Jun 13
13-5 vs Legacy Jun 11
Mirage
SPIR 13 6 MOUZ
92%
8%
Win prob OT 3%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
MOUZ
After First Death
SPIR
MOUZ
Opening Score
SPIR
MOUZ
Opening Kills
SPIR
MOUZ
Side Balance
SPIR
MOUZ
Recent on Mirage
Spirit
4-13 vs 100 Thieves Jul 26
13-8 vs Falcons Jun 20
25-22 vs G2 Jun 19
16-13 vs 9z Jun 13
13-3 vs 9z Jun 7
MOUZ
13-9 vs Astralis Aug 1
13-8 vs FOKUS Jul 25
7-13 vs FUT Jun 14
9-13 vs Vitality Jun 13
13-7 vs Falcons May 22
Nuke
SPIR 13 4 MOUZ
97%
3%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
MOUZ
After First Death
SPIR
MOUZ
After First Kill
SPIR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
SPIR
MOUZ
Opening Kills
SPIR
MOUZ
Recent on Nuke
Spirit
13-5 vs Aurora Jun 12
13-1 vs 9z Jun 7
13-2 vs MOUZ May 16
10-13 vs Vitality Apr 19
11-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 23
MOUZ
22-18 vs 3DMAX Jul 30
13-11 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jul 21
13-10 vs FUT Jun 14
5-13 vs FURIA Jun 12
13-6 vs Legacy Jun 11
Ancient
SPIR 13 5 MOUZ
92%
8%
Win prob OT 3%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
MOUZ
Map Win Rate
SPIR
MOUZ
Opening Kills
SPIR
MOUZ
After First Death
SPIR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
SPIR
MOUZ
Recent on Ancient
Spirit
19-16 vs OG Jul 23
13-10 vs Falcons May 17
13-11 vs G2 May 15
19-16 vs The MongolZ May 10
13-3 vs The Huns May 9
MOUZ
6-13 vs Astralis Aug 1
13-6 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jul 21
11-13 vs FUT Jun 14
13-1 vs MIBR May 23
22-20 vs B8 May 22
Cache
SPIR 13 5 MOUZ
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
MOUZ
After First Death
SPIR
MOUZ
After First Kill
SPIR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
SPIR
MOUZ
Round Win Rate
SPIR
MOUZ
Recent on Cache
Spirit
9-13 vs FaZe Aug 1
13-4 vs OG Jul 23
MOUZ
no data
Recent Results last 11 matches
Spirit
MOUZ
W 2-1 vs FaZe Dust2CacheAnubis Aug 1 12d ago
W 2-0 vs Liquid Dust2Anubis Jul 30 14d ago
W 2-1 vs 100 Thieves AnubisMirageDust2 Jul 26 18d ago
W 2-1 vs OG CacheDust2Ancient Jul 23 21d ago
L 1-2 vs Falcons AnubisMirageDust2 Jun 20 54d ago
W 2-1 vs G2 OverpassDust2Mirage Jun 19 55d ago
W 2-1 vs 9z OverpassMirageDust2 Jun 13 61d ago
W 2-1 vs Aurora Dust2AnubisNuke Jun 12 62d ago
W 2-0 vs Natus Vincere Dust2Anubis Jun 11 63d ago
W 2-0 vs 9z MirageNuke Jun 7 67d ago
W 1-0 vs BetBoom Mirage Jun 6 68d ago
W 2-1 vs Astralis AncientMirageDust2 Aug 1 12d ago
W 2-1 vs 3DMAX Dust2NukeInferno Jul 30 14d ago
W 2-0 vs FOKUS Dust2Mirage Jul 25 19d ago
W 2-0 vs Nuclear TigeRES AncientNuke Jul 21 23d ago
L 1-2 vs FUT AncientNukeMirage Jun 14 60d ago
L 1-2 vs Vitality MirageDust2Inferno Jun 13 61d ago
L 1-2 vs FURIA NukeInfernoOverpass Jun 12 62d ago
W 2-0 vs Legacy Dust2Nuke Jun 11 63d ago
W 2-0 vs MIBR OverpassAncient May 23 82d ago
W 2-0 vs B8 OverpassAncient May 22 83d ago
L 1-2 vs Falcons MirageDust2Nuke May 22 83d ago
Player Matchups
Spirit
Ratings
MOUZ
DO
donk
EntryADR 96.0KAST 78%
1.50 vs 1.21
XE
xertioN
EntryADR 86.7KAST 76%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 77.3KAST 78%
1.20 vs 1.12
TO
torzsi
AWPADR 70.7KAST 74%
TN
tN1R
RiflerADR 71.2KAST 74%
1.07 vs 1.05
PR
PR
RiflerADR 75.3KAST 73%
ZO
zont1x
RiflerADR 68.7KAST 77%
1.01 vs 1.04
XE
xelex
RiflerADR 68.7KAST 71%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 68.8KAST 74%
0.99 vs 1.02
SP
Spinx
RiflerADR 71.0KAST 74%