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Bo3  ·  BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals · 2026-08-01
Astralis
vs
MOUZ ✓
7%
93%
Series win probability
MOUZ 2–0 83%
MOUZ 2–1 10%
ASTR 2–1 6%
ASTR 2–0 1%
Actual result
Ancient 13–6 ASTR
Mirage 13–9 MOUZ
Dust2 13–9 MOUZ
Model Insights
MOUZ is strongly favored at 93%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.10 vs 1.01), a strong ancient (92% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 41% Ancient · Nuke · Mirage
Scenario 2 30% Ancient · Nuke · Inferno
Scenario 3 28% Ancient · Nuke · Cache
Ancient
ASTR 6 – 13 MOUZ
8%
92%
Win prob OT 3% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Kill
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Win Rate
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Ancient
Astralis
13-10 vs HOTU Jul 25
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
13-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21
MOUZ
13-6 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jul 21
11-13 vs FUT Jun 14
13-1 vs MIBR May 23
22-20 vs B8 May 22
10-13 vs NRG May 20
Nuke
ASTR 5 – 13 MOUZ
10%
90%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Win Rate
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
10-13 vs paiN Jul 31
7-13 vs HOTU Jul 25
11-13 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-1 vs FOKUS Jul 21
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
MOUZ
22-18 vs 3DMAX Jul 30
13-11 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jul 21
13-10 vs FUT Jun 14
5-13 vs FURIA Jun 12
13-6 vs Legacy Jun 11
Mirage
ASTR 5 – 13 MOUZ
8%
92%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Kill
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Mirage
Astralis
16-14 vs paiN Jul 31
13-11 vs SINNERS May 13
3-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-5 vs FUT Apr 30
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
MOUZ
13-8 vs FOKUS Jul 25
7-13 vs FUT Jun 14
9-13 vs Vitality Jun 13
13-7 vs Falcons May 22
13-2 vs M80 May 21
Ancient
ASTR 6 – 13 MOUZ
8%
92%
Win prob OT 3% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Kill
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Win Rate
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Ancient
Astralis
13-10 vs HOTU Jul 25
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
13-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21
MOUZ
13-6 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jul 21
11-13 vs FUT Jun 14
13-1 vs MIBR May 23
22-20 vs B8 May 22
10-13 vs NRG May 20
Nuke
ASTR 5 – 13 MOUZ
10%
90%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Win Rate
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
10-13 vs paiN Jul 31
7-13 vs HOTU Jul 25
11-13 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-1 vs FOKUS Jul 21
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
MOUZ
22-18 vs 3DMAX Jul 30
13-11 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jul 21
13-10 vs FUT Jun 14
5-13 vs FURIA Jun 12
13-6 vs Legacy Jun 11
Inferno
ASTR 6 – 13 MOUZ
10%
90%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
Opening Kills
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
T 5v4
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Inferno
Astralis
19-17 vs paiN Jul 31
13-8 vs SINNERS May 13
14-16 vs GamerLegion May 1
13-2 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
10-13 vs Aurora Mar 14
MOUZ
13-3 vs 3DMAX Jul 30
4-13 vs Vitality Jun 13
13-5 vs FURIA Jun 12
10-13 vs M80 May 21
7-13 vs TYLOO May 19
Ancient
ASTR 6 – 13 MOUZ
8%
92%
Win prob OT 3% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Kill
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Win Rate
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Ancient
Astralis
13-10 vs HOTU Jul 25
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
13-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21
MOUZ
13-6 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jul 21
11-13 vs FUT Jun 14
13-1 vs MIBR May 23
22-20 vs B8 May 22
10-13 vs NRG May 20
Nuke
ASTR 5 – 13 MOUZ
10%
90%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Win Rate
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
10-13 vs paiN Jul 31
7-13 vs HOTU Jul 25
11-13 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-1 vs FOKUS Jul 21
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
MOUZ
22-18 vs 3DMAX Jul 30
13-11 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jul 21
13-10 vs FUT Jun 14
5-13 vs FURIA Jun 12
13-6 vs Legacy Jun 11
Cache
ASTR 13 – 9 MOUZ
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Kill
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Round Win Rate
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Cache
Astralis
13-1 vs HOTU Jul 25
14-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-7 vs Nemesis Jul 21
MOUZ
no data
Recent Results last 11 matches
Astralis
MOUZ
W 2-1 vs paiN NukeInfernoMirage Jul 31 13d ago
W 2-1 vs HOTU CacheNukeAncient Jul 25 19d ago
L 0-2 vs HEROIC Dust2Ancient Jul 24 20d ago
L 0-2 vs HOTU CacheAncient Jul 22 22d ago
W 2-1 vs Nemesis NukeAncientCache Jul 21 23d ago
W 2-1 vs FOKUS Dust2AncientNuke Jul 21 23d ago
L 0-2 vs paiN NukeOverpass Jun 8 66d ago
L 0-1 vs TYLOO Nuke Jun 7 67d ago
W 1-0 vs GamerLegion Ancient Jun 6 68d ago
L 0-1 vs 9z Nuke Jun 6 68d ago
W 2-0 vs SINNERS MirageInferno May 13 92d ago
W 2-1 vs 3DMAX Dust2NukeInferno Jul 30 14d ago
W 2-0 vs FOKUS Dust2Mirage Jul 25 19d ago
W 2-0 vs Nuclear TigeRES AncientNuke Jul 21 23d ago
L 1-2 vs FUT AncientNukeMirage Jun 14 60d ago
L 1-2 vs Vitality MirageDust2Inferno Jun 13 61d ago
L 1-2 vs FURIA NukeInfernoOverpass Jun 12 62d ago
W 2-0 vs Legacy Dust2Nuke Jun 11 63d ago
W 2-0 vs MIBR OverpassAncient May 23 82d ago
W 2-0 vs B8 OverpassAncient May 22 83d ago
L 1-2 vs Falcons MirageDust2Nuke May 22 83d ago
W 2-1 vs M80 OverpassInfernoMirage May 21 84d ago
Player Matchups
Astralis
Ratings
MOUZ
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 83.3KAST 73%
1.20 vs 1.23
XE
xertioN
EntryADR 87.9KAST 76%
JA
jabbi
EntryADR 75.7KAST 70%
1.07 vs 1.12
TO
torzsi
AWPADR 70.0KAST 74%
RY
ryu
RiflerADR 71.7KAST 73%
1.03 vs 1.06
PR
PR
RiflerADR 76.3KAST 72%
PH
phzy
AWPADR 65.9KAST 69%
0.92 vs 1.04
XE
xelex
RiflerADR 68.1KAST 71%
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 59.3KAST 69%
0.85 vs 1.01
SP
Spinx
RiflerADR 70.7KAST 74%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Inferno
ASTR 6 – 13 MOUZ
10%
90%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
Opening Kills
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
T 5v4
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Inferno
Astralis
19-17 vs paiN Jul 31
13-8 vs SINNERS May 13
14-16 vs GamerLegion May 1
13-2 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
10-13 vs Aurora Mar 14
MOUZ
13-3 vs 3DMAX Jul 30
4-13 vs Vitality Jun 13
13-5 vs FURIA Jun 12
10-13 vs M80 May 21
7-13 vs TYLOO May 19
Dust2
ASTR 8 – 13 MOUZ
33%
67%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Win Rate
ASTR
MOUZ
T 5v4
ASTR
MOUZ
Overall Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Dust2
Astralis
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
10-13 vs FOKUS Jul 21
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
MOUZ
10-13 vs 3DMAX Jul 30
13-10 vs FOKUS Jul 25
13-7 vs Vitality Jun 13
13-5 vs Legacy Jun 11
7-13 vs Falcons May 22
Cache
ASTR 13 – 9 MOUZ
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Kill
ASTR
MOUZ
After First Death
ASTR
MOUZ
Map Player Rating
ASTR
MOUZ
Round Win Rate
ASTR
MOUZ
Recent on Cache
Astralis
13-1 vs HOTU Jul 25
14-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-7 vs Nemesis Jul 21
MOUZ
no data
More from BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals 1 match
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