Project Leggy
‹ Back
Bo3  ·  BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals · 2026-07-31
paiN ✗
vs
Astralis
86%
14%
Series win probability
PAIN 2–0 53%
PAIN 2–1 33%
ASTR 2–1 7%
ASTR 2–0 7%
Actual result
Nuke 13–10 PAIN
Inferno 19–17 ASTR
Mirage 16–14 ASTR
Model Insights
paiN is strongly favored at 86%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#29 vs #22), a strong mirage (86% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 36% Nuke · Cache · Mirage
Scenario 2 34% Nuke · Cache · Inferno
Scenario 3 30% Nuke · Cache · Dust2
Nuke
PAIN 13 – 8 ASTR
68%
32%
Win prob OT 9% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
Opening Kills
PAIN
ASTR
Round Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Map Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
paiN
13-6 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas Jul 26
13-6 vs Gentle Mates Jul 23
5-13 vs Phantom Jul 15
7-13 vs Sharks Jul 11
13-9 vs LP Jul 10
Astralis
7-13 vs HOTU Jul 25
11-13 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-1 vs FOKUS Jul 21
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
Cache
PAIN 13 – 11 ASTR
56%
44%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
Round Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Map Player Rating
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Cache
paiN
10-13 vs 3DMAX Jul 16
11-13 vs Sharks Jul 11
Astralis
13-1 vs HOTU Jul 25
14-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-7 vs Nemesis Jul 21
Mirage
PAIN 13 – 6 ASTR
86%
14%
Win prob OT 4% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
Opening Kills
PAIN
ASTR
Map Player Rating
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
paiN
16-14 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas Jul 26
9-13 vs TYLOO Jun 6
13-5 vs TYLOO May 21
8-13 vs M80 May 19
13-8 vs ShindeN Apr 4
Astralis
13-11 vs SINNERS May 13
3-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-5 vs FUT Apr 30
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
8-13 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
Nuke
PAIN 13 – 8 ASTR
68%
32%
Win prob OT 9% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
Opening Kills
PAIN
ASTR
Round Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Map Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
paiN
13-6 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas Jul 26
13-6 vs Gentle Mates Jul 23
5-13 vs Phantom Jul 15
7-13 vs Sharks Jul 11
13-9 vs LP Jul 10
Astralis
7-13 vs HOTU Jul 25
11-13 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-1 vs FOKUS Jul 21
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
Cache
PAIN 13 – 11 ASTR
56%
44%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
Round Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Map Player Rating
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Cache
paiN
10-13 vs 3DMAX Jul 16
11-13 vs Sharks Jul 11
Astralis
13-1 vs HOTU Jul 25
14-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-7 vs Nemesis Jul 21
Inferno
PAIN 13 – 7 ASTR
90%
10%
Win prob OT 5% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
Round Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Opening Kills
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
paiN
13-11 vs Gentle Mates Jul 23
4-13 vs 3DMAX Jul 16
13-2 vs LP Jul 10
13-4 vs METANOIA Wolves Jul 9
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 15
Astralis
13-8 vs SINNERS May 13
14-16 vs GamerLegion May 1
13-2 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
10-13 vs Aurora Mar 14
13-4 vs FURIA Mar 10
Nuke
PAIN 13 – 8 ASTR
68%
32%
Win prob OT 9% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
Opening Kills
PAIN
ASTR
Round Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Map Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
paiN
13-6 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas Jul 26
13-6 vs Gentle Mates Jul 23
5-13 vs Phantom Jul 15
7-13 vs Sharks Jul 11
13-9 vs LP Jul 10
Astralis
7-13 vs HOTU Jul 25
11-13 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-1 vs FOKUS Jul 21
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
Cache
PAIN 13 – 11 ASTR
56%
44%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
Round Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Map Player Rating
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Cache
paiN
10-13 vs 3DMAX Jul 16
11-13 vs Sharks Jul 11
Astralis
13-1 vs HOTU Jul 25
14-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-7 vs Nemesis Jul 21
Dust2
PAIN 13 – 6 ASTR
86%
14%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
T 5v4
PAIN
ASTR
Opening Kills
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
paiN
13-8 vs Phantom Jul 15
6-13 vs LP Jul 10
13-4 vs METANOIA Wolves Jul 9
11-13 vs Monte Jun 9
13-8 vs BC.Game May 20
Astralis
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
10-13 vs FOKUS Jul 21
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
Recent Results last 11 matches
paiN
Astralis
W 2-0 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas NukeMirage Jul 26 18d ago
W 2-0 vs Gentle Mates InfernoNuke Jul 23 21d ago
L 0-2 vs 3DMAX CacheInferno Jul 16 28d ago
L 1-2 vs Phantom Dust2AnubisNuke Jul 15 29d ago
L 0-2 vs Sharks CacheNuke Jul 11 33d ago
W 2-1 vs LP InfernoDust2Nuke Jul 10 34d ago
W 2-0 vs METANOIA Wolves InfernoDust2 Jul 9 35d ago
L 0-2 vs Monte NukeDust2 Jun 9 65d ago
W 2-0 vs Astralis NukeOverpass Jun 8 66d ago
W 2-0 vs FlyQuest NukeAnubis Jun 7 67d ago
L 0-1 vs TYLOO Mirage Jun 6 68d ago
W 2-1 vs HOTU CacheNukeAncient Jul 25 19d ago
L 0-2 vs HEROIC Dust2Ancient Jul 24 20d ago
L 0-2 vs HOTU CacheAncient Jul 22 22d ago
W 2-1 vs Nemesis NukeAncientCache Jul 21 23d ago
W 2-1 vs FOKUS Dust2AncientNuke Jul 21 23d ago
L 0-2 vs paiN NukeOverpass Jun 8 66d ago
L 0-1 vs TYLOO Nuke Jun 7 67d ago
W 1-0 vs GamerLegion Ancient Jun 6 68d ago
L 0-1 vs 9z Nuke Jun 6 68d ago
W 2-0 vs SINNERS MirageInferno May 13 92d ago
L 0-2 vs GamerLegion MirageAncient May 13 92d ago
Player Matchups
paiN
Ratings
Astralis
SN
snow
RiflerADR 76.6KAST 70%
1.08 vs 1.18
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 83.6KAST 73%
PI
piriajr
EntryADR 75.1KAST 71%
1.06 vs 1.08
JA
jabbi
EntryADR 77.1KAST 70%
SA
saffee
AWPADR 68.3KAST 70%
1.02 vs 1.02
RY
ryu
RiflerADR 71.3KAST 73%
BI
biguzera
RiflerADR 71.2KAST 71%
0.99 vs 0.91
PH
phzy
AWPADR 64.5KAST 68%
VS
vsm
RiflerADR 68.8KAST 69%
0.97 vs 0.82
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 58.9KAST 68%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Anubis
PAIN 13 – 5 ASTR
94%
6%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
Ban Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Map Player Rating
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Anubis
paiN
5-13 vs Phantom Jul 15
13-10 vs FlyQuest Jun 7
13-4 vs BC.Game May 20
5-13 vs BetBoom May 13
13-8 vs FaZe May 11
Astralis
no data
Inferno
PAIN 13 – 7 ASTR
90%
10%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
Round Win Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Opening Kills
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
paiN
13-11 vs Gentle Mates Jul 23
4-13 vs 3DMAX Jul 16
13-2 vs LP Jul 10
13-4 vs METANOIA Wolves Jul 9
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 15
Astralis
13-8 vs SINNERS May 13
14-16 vs GamerLegion May 1
13-2 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
10-13 vs Aurora Mar 14
13-4 vs FURIA Mar 10
Dust2
PAIN 13 – 6 ASTR
86%
14%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
T 5v4
PAIN
ASTR
Opening Kills
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
paiN
13-8 vs Phantom Jul 15
6-13 vs LP Jul 10
13-4 vs METANOIA Wolves Jul 9
11-13 vs Monte Jun 9
13-8 vs BC.Game May 20
Astralis
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
10-13 vs FOKUS Jul 21
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
Ancient
PAIN 7 – 13 ASTR
26%
74%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
PAIN
ASTR
After First Kill
PAIN
ASTR
After First Death
PAIN
ASTR
Ban Rate
PAIN
ASTR
Map Player Rating
PAIN
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
paiN
no data
Astralis
13-10 vs HOTU Jul 25
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
13-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21