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Bo3  ·  BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · 2026-07-25
HOTU ✗
vs
Astralis
74%
26%
Series win probability
HOTU 2–0 42%
HOTU 2–1 32%
ASTR 2–1 14%
ASTR 2–0 12%
Actual result
Cache 13–1 ASTR
Nuke 13–7 HOTU
Ancient 13–10 ASTR
Model Insights
HOTU is strongly favored at 74%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.09 vs 1.00), stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#35 vs #23), a strong ancient (70% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 47% Dust2 · Ancient · Cache
Scenario 2 37% Dust2 · Ancient · Nuke
Scenario 3 16% Dust2 · Ancient · Mirage
Dust2
HOTU 13 – 9 ASTR
58%
42%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
HOTU
13-11 vs GamerLegion Jul 22
13-8 vs HEROIC Jul 21
3-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
16-13 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-2 vs BRUTE Jul 12
Astralis
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
10-13 vs FOKUS Jul 21
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
Ancient
HOTU 13 – 10 ASTR
70%
30%
Win prob OT 11% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
HOTU
13-8 vs GamerLegion Jul 22
16-13 vs Astralis Jul 22
0-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
13-3 vs Vexar Jul 12
8-13 vs TDK Jun 16
Astralis
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
13-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
Cache
HOTU 13 – 10 ASTR
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Map Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Cache
HOTU
16-14 vs Astralis Jul 22
13-6 vs HEROIC Jul 21
13-8 vs QUAZAR Jul 14
26-28 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-6 vs BRUTE Jul 12
Astralis
14-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-7 vs Nemesis Jul 21
Dust2
HOTU 13 – 9 ASTR
58%
42%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
HOTU
13-11 vs GamerLegion Jul 22
13-8 vs HEROIC Jul 21
3-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
16-13 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-2 vs BRUTE Jul 12
Astralis
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
10-13 vs FOKUS Jul 21
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
Ancient
HOTU 13 – 10 ASTR
70%
30%
Win prob OT 11% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
HOTU
13-8 vs GamerLegion Jul 22
16-13 vs Astralis Jul 22
0-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
13-3 vs Vexar Jul 12
8-13 vs TDK Jun 16
Astralis
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
13-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
Nuke
HOTU 13 – 8 ASTR
74%
26%
Win prob OT 8% ✗
Key factors
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
HOTU
13-9 vs KOLESIE Jun 14
13-6 vs Rune Eaters May 31
13-7 vs Rune Eaters May 31
13-8 vs Rune Eaters May 29
13-16 vs Tricked May 21
Astralis
11-13 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-1 vs FOKUS Jul 21
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
5-13 vs 9z Jun 6
Dust2
HOTU 13 – 9 ASTR
58%
42%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
HOTU
13-11 vs GamerLegion Jul 22
13-8 vs HEROIC Jul 21
3-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
16-13 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-2 vs BRUTE Jul 12
Astralis
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
10-13 vs FOKUS Jul 21
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
Ancient
HOTU 13 – 10 ASTR
70%
30%
Win prob OT 11% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
HOTU
13-8 vs GamerLegion Jul 22
16-13 vs Astralis Jul 22
0-13 vs fnatic Jul 14
13-3 vs Vexar Jul 12
8-13 vs TDK Jun 16
Astralis
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 24
13-16 vs HOTU Jul 22
13-10 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-11 vs FOKUS Jul 21
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
Mirage
HOTU 13 – 7 ASTR
71%
29%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
HOTU
13-9 vs INFINITE Jul 25
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 21
13-9 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-0 vs Vexar Jul 12
Astralis
13-11 vs SINNERS May 13
3-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-5 vs FUT Apr 30
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
8-13 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
Recent Results last 11 matches
HOTU
Astralis
W 2-0 vs GamerLegion Dust2Ancient Jul 22 22d ago
W 2-0 vs Astralis CacheAncient Jul 22 22d ago
W 2-1 vs HEROIC MirageCacheDust2 Jul 21 23d ago
W 2-0 vs QUAZAR AnubisCache Jul 14 30d ago
L 0-2 vs fnatic AncientDust2 Jul 14 30d ago
W 2-1 vs Entropy CacheDust2Mirage Jul 13 31d ago
W 2-0 vs Vexar AncientMirage Jul 12 32d ago
W 2-0 vs BRUTE Dust2Cache Jul 12 32d ago
L 0-2 vs GenOne Dust2Overpass Jun 18 56d ago
L 0-2 vs TDK OverpassAncient Jun 16 58d ago
W 2-0 vs KOLESIE NukeDust2 Jun 14 60d ago
L 0-2 vs HEROIC Dust2Ancient Jul 24 20d ago
L 0-2 vs HOTU CacheAncient Jul 22 22d ago
W 2-1 vs Nemesis NukeAncientCache Jul 21 23d ago
W 2-1 vs FOKUS Dust2AncientNuke Jul 21 23d ago
L 0-2 vs paiN NukeOverpass Jun 8 66d ago
L 0-1 vs TYLOO Nuke Jun 7 67d ago
W 1-0 vs GamerLegion Ancient Jun 6 68d ago
L 0-1 vs 9z Nuke Jun 6 68d ago
W 2-0 vs SINNERS MirageInferno May 13 92d ago
L 0-2 vs GamerLegion MirageAncient May 13 92d ago
L 0-2 vs Legacy Dust2Nuke May 12 93d ago
Player Matchups
HOTU
Ratings
Astralis
MI
mizu
EntryADR 82.1KAST 72%
1.25 vs 1.17
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 83.1KAST 72%
FR
frontales
AWPADR 69.6KAST 74%
1.12 vs 1.05
JA
jabbi
EntryADR 75.1KAST 69%
N0
n0rb3r7
RiflerADR 78.8KAST 71%
1.11 vs 0.98
RY
ryu
RiflerADR 69.2KAST 72%
DW
dwushka
RiflerADR 75.6KAST 72%
1.09 vs 0.93
PH
phzy
AWPADR 64.8KAST 70%
KA
kade0
RiflerADR 68.1KAST 69%
0.97 vs 0.85
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 60.6KAST 68%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Inferno
HOTU 5 – 13 ASTR
8%
92%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
Ban Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
HOTU
no data
Astralis
13-8 vs SINNERS May 13
14-16 vs GamerLegion May 1
13-2 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
10-13 vs Aurora Mar 14
13-4 vs FURIA Mar 10
Anubis
HOTU 13 – 7 ASTR
86%
14%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
Ban Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Anubis
HOTU
13-5 vs INFINITE Jul 25
13-9 vs QUAZAR Jul 14
13-3 vs PCIFIC May 29
Astralis
no data
Nuke
HOTU 13 – 8 ASTR
74%
26%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Overall Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Ranking
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
HOTU
13-9 vs KOLESIE Jun 14
13-6 vs Rune Eaters May 31
13-7 vs Rune Eaters May 31
13-8 vs Rune Eaters May 29
13-16 vs Tricked May 21
Astralis
11-13 vs Nemesis Jul 21
13-1 vs FOKUS Jul 21
11-13 vs paiN Jun 8
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
5-13 vs 9z Jun 6
Mirage
HOTU 13 – 7 ASTR
71%
29%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
HOTU
ASTR
After First Death
HOTU
ASTR
Opponent-Rating Diff
HOTU
ASTR
Round Win Rate
HOTU
ASTR
Map Player Rating
HOTU
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
HOTU
13-9 vs INFINITE Jul 25
10-13 vs HEROIC Jul 21
13-9 vs Entropy Jul 13
13-0 vs Vexar Jul 12
Astralis
13-11 vs SINNERS May 13
3-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-5 vs FUT Apr 30
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
8-13 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
More from BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 1 match
FaZe over DENDELE 94%