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Bo3  ·  NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · 2026-07-28
Butterfly
vs
G2 Ares
57%
43%
Series win probability
BUTT 2–1 36%
G2A 2–0 25%
BUTT 2–0 21%
G2A 2–1 18%
Actual result
Mirage 13–5 BUTT
Ancient 13–4 BUTT
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Butterfly is slightly favored at 57% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.14 vs 1.07), a significant ranking advantage (#83 vs #105), a strong ancient (67% win probability). G2 Ares's best shot is inferno where they hold a 79% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 42% Ancient · Mirage · Inferno
Scenario 2 34% Ancient · Mirage · Cache
Scenario 3 23% Ancient · Mirage · Dust2
Ancient
BUTT 13 8 G2A
67%
33%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Round Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Map Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Ancient
Butterfly
13-4 vs G2 Ares Jul 24
13-5 vs benched gods Jul 22
G2 Ares
14-16 vs Phantom Jul 24
4-13 vs Butterfly Jul 24
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 21
13-8 vs megoshort Jul 19
13-10 vs Vexar May 31
Mirage
BUTT 10 13 G2A
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Overall Rating
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Map Player Rating
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Mirage
Butterfly
13-10 vs Lavked Jul 26
12-16 vs G2 Ares Jul 24
13-2 vs Just Players Jul 23
G2 Ares
13-11 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 25
10-13 vs Phantom Jul 24
16-12 vs Butterfly Jul 24
13-11 vs megoshort Jul 19
13-3 vs Misa Jul 17
Inferno
BUTT 8 13 G2A
21%
79%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Map Player Rating
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
Opponent-Rating Diff
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Inferno
Butterfly
13-16 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 26
14-16 vs G2 Ares Jul 24
G2 Ares
8-13 vs INOX Division Jul 26
16-14 vs Butterfly Jul 24
13-10 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 21
11-13 vs Misa Jul 17
13-6 vs Lilmix Jul 16
Ancient
BUTT 13 8 G2A
67%
33%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Round Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Map Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Ancient
Butterfly
13-4 vs G2 Ares Jul 24
13-5 vs benched gods Jul 22
G2 Ares
14-16 vs Phantom Jul 24
4-13 vs Butterfly Jul 24
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 21
13-8 vs megoshort Jul 19
13-10 vs Vexar May 31
Mirage
BUTT 10 13 G2A
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Overall Rating
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Map Player Rating
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Mirage
Butterfly
13-10 vs Lavked Jul 26
12-16 vs G2 Ares Jul 24
13-2 vs Just Players Jul 23
G2 Ares
13-11 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 25
10-13 vs Phantom Jul 24
16-12 vs Butterfly Jul 24
13-11 vs megoshort Jul 19
13-3 vs Misa Jul 17
Cache
BUTT 13 10 G2A
68%
32%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
Map Player Rating
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Round Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Cache
Butterfly
13-10 vs benched gods Jul 22
G2 Ares
22-18 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 25
11-13 vs Lilmix Jul 16
Ancient
BUTT 13 8 G2A
67%
33%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Round Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Map Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Ancient
Butterfly
13-4 vs G2 Ares Jul 24
13-5 vs benched gods Jul 22
G2 Ares
14-16 vs Phantom Jul 24
4-13 vs Butterfly Jul 24
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 21
13-8 vs megoshort Jul 19
13-10 vs Vexar May 31
Mirage
BUTT 10 13 G2A
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Overall Rating
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Map Player Rating
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Mirage
Butterfly
13-10 vs Lavked Jul 26
12-16 vs G2 Ares Jul 24
13-2 vs Just Players Jul 23
G2 Ares
13-11 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 25
10-13 vs Phantom Jul 24
16-12 vs Butterfly Jul 24
13-11 vs megoshort Jul 19
13-3 vs Misa Jul 17
Dust2
BUTT 13 6 G2A
93%
7%
Win prob OT 3%
Key factors
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Opening Kills
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
Overall Rating
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Dust2
Butterfly
13-5 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 26
G2 Ares
16-14 vs INOX Division Jul 26
6-13 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 25
16-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 21
13-11 vs Misa Jul 17
14-16 vs SPARTA Jun 15
Recent Results last 11 matches
Butterfly
G2 Ares
L 1-2 vs Lavked AnubisMirageNuke Jul 26 18d ago
W 2-1 vs SAW Youngsters NukeInfernoDust2 Jul 26 18d ago
L 1-2 vs G2 Ares AncientMirageInferno Jul 24 20d ago
W 2-0 vs Just Players MirageNuke Jul 23 21d ago
W 2-0 vs benched gods AncientCache Jul 22 22d ago
L 1-2 vs INOX Division Dust2AnubisInferno Jul 26 18d ago
W 2-1 vs Inner Circle Academy Dust2MirageCache Jul 25 19d ago
L 0-2 vs Phantom MirageAncient Jul 24 20d ago
W 2-1 vs Butterfly AncientMirageInferno Jul 24 20d ago
W 2-1 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects AncientDust2Inferno Jul 21 23d ago
W 2-0 vs megoshort AncientMirage Jul 19 25d ago
W 2-1 vs Misa InfernoDust2Mirage Jul 17 27d ago
W 2-1 vs Lilmix InfernoCacheMirage Jul 16 28d ago
L 0-2 vs Walczaki AnubisInferno Jun 15 59d ago
L 0-2 vs SPARTA Dust2Inferno Jun 15 59d ago
L 0-2 vs PsychoFace MirageOverpass Jun 13 61d ago
Player Matchups
Butterfly
Ratings
G2 Ares
NI
nitzie
AWPADR 74.1KAST 72%
1.12 vs 1.19
TA
tAk
EntryADR 85.3KAST 75%
AY
ayano
RiflerADR 71.6KAST 70%
1.03 vs 1.15
JU
Junyme
AWPADR 74.9KAST 74%
KU
Kurama
EntryADR 78.3KAST 69%
1.02 vs 1.05
HI
hitori
RiflerADR 76.0KAST 72%
K1
k1ssly
RiflerADR 69.2KAST 68%
0.93 vs 1.02
YK
yksjupe
RiflerADR 70.5KAST 72%
vs 0.94
SH
SHiNE
RiflerADR 63.5KAST 71%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Dust2
BUTT 13 6 G2A
93%
7%
Win prob OT 3%
Key factors
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Opening Kills
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
Overall Rating
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Dust2
Butterfly
13-5 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 26
G2 Ares
16-14 vs INOX Division Jul 26
6-13 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 25
16-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Jul 21
13-11 vs Misa Jul 17
14-16 vs SPARTA Jun 15
Nuke
BUTT 13 5 G2A
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
Ban Rate
BUTT
G2A
Map Player Rating
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Nuke
Butterfly
11-13 vs Lavked Jul 26
13-10 vs SAW Youngsters Jul 26
13-6 vs Just Players Jul 23
G2 Ares
no data
Anubis
BUTT 8 13 G2A
26%
74%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
Map Player Rating
BUTT
G2A
Overall Rating
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Anubis
Butterfly
11-13 vs Lavked Jul 26
G2 Ares
12-16 vs INOX Division Jul 26
6-13 vs Walczaki Jun 15
13-6 vs Misa May 26
13-5 vs Entropy May 26
16-13 vs DONSTU May 24
Cache
BUTT 13 10 G2A
68%
32%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
BUTT
G2A
Map Player Rating
BUTT
G2A
Ranking
BUTT
G2A
After First Death
BUTT
G2A
Round Win Rate
BUTT
G2A
Recent on Cache
Butterfly
13-10 vs benched gods Jul 22
G2 Ares
22-18 vs Inner Circle Academy Jul 25
11-13 vs Lilmix Jul 16
More from NODWIN Clutch Series 10 2 matches