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Bo3  ·  Urban Riga Open Season 5 · 2026-06-29
Leo
vs
ASTRAL
36%
64%
Series win probability
ASTR 2–0 40%
ASTR 2–1 24%
LEO 2–1 23%
LEO 2–0 13%
Actual result
Mirage 13–10 ASTR
Dust2 13–5 ASTR
Model Insights
ASTRAL has a moderate edge at 64%, favored on 3 of 3 maps. Key factors: a strong ancient (65% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 50% Dust2 · Ancient · Anubis
Scenario 2 27% Dust2 · Ancient · Nuke
Scenario 3 23% Dust2 · Ancient · Mirage
Dust2
LEO 10 13 ASTR
38%
62%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Map Player Rating
LEO
ASTR
Opening Kills
LEO
ASTR
Opening Score
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
Leo
13-8 vs Aimhaus Jun 28
13-11 vs Coalesce Jun 28
10-13 vs 100 Thieves Jun 18
13-11 vs PsychoFace Jun 16
13-8 vs SPARTA Jun 14
ASTRAL
13-6 vs Leo May 31
13-9 vs UNiTY May 31
8-13 vs ex-RUBY May 27
13-11 vs brazylijski luz May 27
6-13 vs GenOne May 26
Ancient
LEO 9 13 ASTR
35%
65%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
T 5v4
LEO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
After First Death
LEO
ASTR
Opening Kills
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Leo
13-9 vs BERG Jun 29
13-7 vs GAMEHARMONY Jun 28
12-16 vs 100 Thieves Jun 18
13-5 vs SPARTA Jun 14
13-6 vs KOLESIE Jun 10
ASTRAL
13-10 vs SINQU REHTI Jun 29
13-11 vs ARCRED Jun 6
14-16 vs Betclic Jun 4
3-13 vs Leo May 31
9-13 vs KOLESIE May 29
Anubis
LEO 8 13 ASTR
37%
63%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
LEO
ASTR
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Map Player Rating
LEO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Anubis
Leo
3-13 vs PsychoFace Jun 16
10-13 vs Ursa Jun 12
13-7 vs NEW VISION Jun 6
11-13 vs ASTRAL May 31
7-13 vs Oramond May 30
ASTRAL
13-4 vs 6666 Jun 28
13-5 vs BERG Jun 28
12-16 vs KOLESIE Jun 8
7-13 vs Lavked Jun 2
13-11 vs Leo May 31
Dust2
LEO 10 13 ASTR
38%
62%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Map Player Rating
LEO
ASTR
Opening Kills
LEO
ASTR
Opening Score
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
Leo
13-8 vs Aimhaus Jun 28
13-11 vs Coalesce Jun 28
10-13 vs 100 Thieves Jun 18
13-11 vs PsychoFace Jun 16
13-8 vs SPARTA Jun 14
ASTRAL
13-6 vs Leo May 31
13-9 vs UNiTY May 31
8-13 vs ex-RUBY May 27
13-11 vs brazylijski luz May 27
6-13 vs GenOne May 26
Ancient
LEO 9 13 ASTR
35%
65%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
T 5v4
LEO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
After First Death
LEO
ASTR
Opening Kills
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Leo
13-9 vs BERG Jun 29
13-7 vs GAMEHARMONY Jun 28
12-16 vs 100 Thieves Jun 18
13-5 vs SPARTA Jun 14
13-6 vs KOLESIE Jun 10
ASTRAL
13-10 vs SINQU REHTI Jun 29
13-11 vs ARCRED Jun 6
14-16 vs Betclic Jun 4
3-13 vs Leo May 31
9-13 vs KOLESIE May 29
Nuke
LEO 9 13 ASTR
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
After First Death
LEO
ASTR
T 5v4
LEO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
Leo
13-5 vs BERG Jun 29
13-5 vs 100 Thieves Jun 18
13-11 vs PsychoFace Jun 16
3-13 vs KOLESIE Jun 10
4-13 vs HAVU May 27
ASTRAL
13-5 vs SINQU REHTI Jun 29
8-13 vs KOLESIE Jun 8
9-13 vs Betclic Jun 4
7-13 vs KOLESIE May 29
9-13 vs ex-RUBY May 27
Dust2
LEO 10 13 ASTR
38%
62%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Map Player Rating
LEO
ASTR
Opening Kills
LEO
ASTR
Opening Score
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
Leo
13-8 vs Aimhaus Jun 28
13-11 vs Coalesce Jun 28
10-13 vs 100 Thieves Jun 18
13-11 vs PsychoFace Jun 16
13-8 vs SPARTA Jun 14
ASTRAL
13-6 vs Leo May 31
13-9 vs UNiTY May 31
8-13 vs ex-RUBY May 27
13-11 vs brazylijski luz May 27
6-13 vs GenOne May 26
Ancient
LEO 9 13 ASTR
35%
65%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
T 5v4
LEO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
After First Death
LEO
ASTR
Opening Kills
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
Leo
13-9 vs BERG Jun 29
13-7 vs GAMEHARMONY Jun 28
12-16 vs 100 Thieves Jun 18
13-5 vs SPARTA Jun 14
13-6 vs KOLESIE Jun 10
ASTRAL
13-10 vs SINQU REHTI Jun 29
13-11 vs ARCRED Jun 6
14-16 vs Betclic Jun 4
3-13 vs Leo May 31
9-13 vs KOLESIE May 29
Mirage
LEO 13 9 ASTR
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
After First Kill
LEO
ASTR
After First Death
LEO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Opening Kills
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
Leo
8-13 vs SPARTA Jun 14
16-14 vs HYPERSPIRIT Jun 8
13-2 vs Lilmix Jun 5
13-10 vs fnatic Apr 27
ASTRAL
3-13 vs ARCRED Jun 6
6-13 vs Lavked Jun 2
11-13 vs MANA May 26
13-9 vs ex-Zero Tenacity May 25
13-10 vs brazylijski luz May 25
Recent Results last 11 matches
Leo
ASTRAL
W 1-0 vs Aimhaus Dust2 Jun 28 46d ago
W 1-0 vs Coalesce Dust2 Jun 28 46d ago
W 1-0 vs GAMEHARMONY Ancient Jun 28 46d ago
L 1-2 vs 100 Thieves NukeDust2Ancient Jun 18 56d ago
W 2-1 vs PsychoFace AnubisNukeDust2 Jun 16 58d ago
W 2-1 vs SPARTA AncientMirageDust2 Jun 14 60d ago
L 0-2 vs Ursa Dust2Anubis Jun 12 62d ago
W 2-1 vs KOLESIE Dust2NukeAncient Jun 10 64d ago
W 2-0 vs HYPERSPIRIT Dust2Mirage Jun 8 66d ago
W 2-0 vs NEW VISION Dust2Anubis Jun 6 68d ago
W 2-0 vs Lilmix Dust2Mirage Jun 5 69d ago
W 1-0 vs 6666 Anubis Jun 28 46d ago
W 1-0 vs BERG Anubis Jun 28 46d ago
W 1-0 vs SINQU REHTI Inferno Jun 28 46d ago
L 0-2 vs KOLESIE AnubisNuke Jun 8 66d ago
L 1-2 vs ARCRED AncientInfernoMirage Jun 6 68d ago
L 0-2 vs Betclic AncientNuke Jun 4 70d ago
L 0-2 vs Lavked MirageAnubis Jun 2 72d ago
W 2-1 vs Leo AncientDust2Anubis May 31 74d ago
W 2-0 vs UNiTY Dust2Inferno May 31 74d ago
L 0-2 vs KOLESIE NukeAncient May 29 76d ago
L 1-2 vs ex-RUBY NukeAncientDust2 May 27 78d ago
Player Matchups
Leo
Ratings
ASTRAL
ON
OneUn1que
AWPADR 88.7KAST 76%
1.24 vs 1.16
SW
swiz
EntryADR 84.0KAST 72%
AM
amster
RiflerADR 73.4KAST 72%
1.02 vs 1.06
GX
gxx-
AWPADR 74.8KAST 72%
LE
leen
RiflerADR 68.9KAST 72%
1.00 vs 1.02
RA
RaY5ive
RiflerADR 72.9KAST 72%
KL
kL1o
EntryADR 71.3KAST 72%
1.00 vs 0.97
NE
Neqy
RiflerADR 74.6KAST 70%
vs 0.97
ME
meowpop
RiflerADR 65.2KAST 72%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Overpass
LEO 13 6 ASTR
92%
8%
Win prob OT 3%
Key factors
After First Death
LEO
ASTR
After First Kill
LEO
ASTR
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
Opening Kills
LEO
ASTR
Round Win %
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Overpass
Leo
no data
ASTRAL
no data
Inferno
LEO 13 7 ASTR
85%
15%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
After First Death
LEO
ASTR
After First Kill
LEO
ASTR
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
Map Player Rating
LEO
ASTR
T 5v4
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
Leo
13-8 vs HAVU May 27
ASTRAL
13-6 vs SINQU REHTI Jun 28
4-13 vs ARCRED Jun 6
13-11 vs UNiTY May 31
2-13 vs Rebels May 26
13-8 vs ex-Zero Tenacity May 25
Mirage
LEO 13 9 ASTR
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
After First Kill
LEO
ASTR
After First Death
LEO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Opening Kills
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
Leo
8-13 vs SPARTA Jun 14
16-14 vs HYPERSPIRIT Jun 8
13-2 vs Lilmix Jun 5
13-10 vs fnatic Apr 27
ASTRAL
3-13 vs ARCRED Jun 6
6-13 vs Lavked Jun 2
11-13 vs MANA May 26
13-9 vs ex-Zero Tenacity May 25
13-10 vs brazylijski luz May 25
Nuke
LEO 9 13 ASTR
35%
65%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
LEO
ASTR
After First Death
LEO
ASTR
T 5v4
LEO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Round Win Rate
LEO
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
Leo
13-5 vs BERG Jun 29
13-5 vs 100 Thieves Jun 18
13-11 vs PsychoFace Jun 16
3-13 vs KOLESIE Jun 10
4-13 vs HAVU May 27
ASTRAL
13-5 vs SINQU REHTI Jun 29
8-13 vs KOLESIE Jun 8
9-13 vs Betclic Jun 4
7-13 vs KOLESIE May 29
9-13 vs ex-RUBY May 27