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Bo3  ·  XSE Pro League Guangzhou 2026 · 2026-07-09
Alliance
vs
Nemesis
23%
77%
Series win probability
NEME 2–0 42%
NEME 2–1 35%
ALLI 2–1 13%
ALLI 2–0 10%
Actual result
Nuke 13–8 NEME
Inferno 13–7 ALLI
Ancient 13–7 ALLI
Model Insights
Nemesis is strongly favored at 77%, holding a map advantage on 2 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#28 vs #21), a strong nuke (85% win probability). Alliance's best shot is inferno where they hold a 61% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 48% Inferno · Nuke · Ancient
Scenario 2 30% Inferno · Nuke · Dust2
Scenario 3 23% Inferno · Nuke · Cache
Inferno
ALLI 13 10 NEME
61%
39%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Kill
ALLI
NEME
Opening Kills
ALLI
NEME
Map Player Rating
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Inferno
Alliance
13-7 vs 9z Jul 4
13-7 vs BASEMENT BOYS Jun 14
13-11 vs Metizport Jun 14
13-1 vs SAAB Jun 13
13-9 vs Nexus Jun 13
Nemesis
9-13 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
13-10 vs Luminosity Jul 1
6-13 vs TDK Jun 17
13-8 vs Gentle Mates May 31
13-6 vs 100 Thieves May 30
Nuke
ALLI 7 13 NEME
15%
85%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Map Win Rate
ALLI
NEME
T Side
ALLI
NEME
Map Player Rating
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Nuke
Alliance
13-4 vs BASEMENT BOYS Jun 14
19-15 vs Metizport Jun 14
13-1 vs SAAB Jun 13
13-5 vs EAC Jun 13
11-13 vs Sharks May 29
Nemesis
13-10 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-7 vs INFINITE Jun 16
13-8 vs CYBERSHOKE Jun 15
13-6 vs Gentle Mates May 31
13-2 vs Lavked May 29
Ancient
ALLI 10 13 NEME
41%
59%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Kill
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Opening Kills
ALLI
NEME
CT Opening Kills
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Ancient
Alliance
13-6 vs B8 Jul 3
13-3 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas Jul 2
4-13 vs PARIVISION Jul 1
13-1 vs Nexus Jun 14
13-6 vs fnatic Jun 14
Nemesis
13-10 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
13-16 vs BetBoom Jul 3
13-10 vs B8 Jul 2
7-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-5 vs CYBERSHOKE Jun 15
Inferno
ALLI 13 10 NEME
61%
39%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Kill
ALLI
NEME
Opening Kills
ALLI
NEME
Map Player Rating
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Inferno
Alliance
13-7 vs 9z Jul 4
13-7 vs BASEMENT BOYS Jun 14
13-11 vs Metizport Jun 14
13-1 vs SAAB Jun 13
13-9 vs Nexus Jun 13
Nemesis
9-13 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
13-10 vs Luminosity Jul 1
6-13 vs TDK Jun 17
13-8 vs Gentle Mates May 31
13-6 vs 100 Thieves May 30
Nuke
ALLI 7 13 NEME
15%
85%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Map Win Rate
ALLI
NEME
T Side
ALLI
NEME
Map Player Rating
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Nuke
Alliance
13-4 vs BASEMENT BOYS Jun 14
19-15 vs Metizport Jun 14
13-1 vs SAAB Jun 13
13-5 vs EAC Jun 13
11-13 vs Sharks May 29
Nemesis
13-10 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-7 vs INFINITE Jun 16
13-8 vs CYBERSHOKE Jun 15
13-6 vs Gentle Mates May 31
13-2 vs Lavked May 29
Dust2
ALLI 6 13 NEME
8%
92%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
Round Win Rate
ALLI
NEME
Map Win Rate
ALLI
NEME
Open Score N75 Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Dust2
Alliance
16-14 vs 9z Jul 4
13-3 vs Nexus Jun 14
17-19 vs fnatic Jun 14
9-13 vs 3DMAX May 28
5-13 vs EYEBALLERS May 23
Nemesis
22-19 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
6-13 vs BetBoom Jul 3
7-13 vs TDK Jun 20
9-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-9 vs FOKUS May 31
Inferno
ALLI 13 10 NEME
61%
39%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Kill
ALLI
NEME
Opening Kills
ALLI
NEME
Map Player Rating
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Inferno
Alliance
13-7 vs 9z Jul 4
13-7 vs BASEMENT BOYS Jun 14
13-11 vs Metizport Jun 14
13-1 vs SAAB Jun 13
13-9 vs Nexus Jun 13
Nemesis
9-13 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
13-10 vs Luminosity Jul 1
6-13 vs TDK Jun 17
13-8 vs Gentle Mates May 31
13-6 vs 100 Thieves May 30
Nuke
ALLI 7 13 NEME
15%
85%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Map Win Rate
ALLI
NEME
T Side
ALLI
NEME
Map Player Rating
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Nuke
Alliance
13-4 vs BASEMENT BOYS Jun 14
19-15 vs Metizport Jun 14
13-1 vs SAAB Jun 13
13-5 vs EAC Jun 13
11-13 vs Sharks May 29
Nemesis
13-10 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-7 vs INFINITE Jun 16
13-8 vs CYBERSHOKE Jun 15
13-6 vs Gentle Mates May 31
13-2 vs Lavked May 29
Cache
ALLI 8 13 NEME
30%
70%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
Opening Score
ALLI
NEME
Open Score N75 Diff
ALLI
NEME
Days With Lineup Diff
ALLI
NEME
Side Balance
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Cache
Alliance
no data
Nemesis
no data
Recent Results last 11 matches
Alliance
Nemesis
W 2-0 vs 9z Dust2Inferno Jul 4 40d ago
W 1-0 vs B8 Ancient Jul 3 41d ago
W 1-0 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas Ancient Jul 2 42d ago
L 0-1 vs PARIVISION Ancient Jul 1 43d ago
W 2-0 vs BASEMENT BOYS NukeInferno Jun 14 60d ago
W 2-1 vs Nexus OverpassDust2Ancient Jun 14 60d ago
W 2-1 vs fnatic AnubisDust2Ancient Jun 14 60d ago
W 2-1 vs Metizport NukeAnubisInferno Jun 14 60d ago
W 2-0 vs SAAB InfernoNuke Jun 13 61d ago
L 1-2 vs Nexus OverpassInfernoAnubis Jun 13 61d ago
W 2-0 vs 6666 AncientInferno Jun 13 61d ago
W 2-1 vs EYEBALLERS AncientInfernoDust2 Jul 4 40d ago
L 1-2 vs BetBoom MirageDust2Ancient Jul 3 41d ago
W 1-0 vs B8 Ancient Jul 2 42d ago
W 1-0 vs Luminosity Inferno Jul 1 43d ago
L 1-2 vs TDK MirageOverpassDust2 Jun 20 54d ago
W 2-1 vs TDK OverpassInfernoMirage Jun 17 57d ago
L 1-2 vs Nuclear TigeRES NukeDust2Ancient Jun 17 57d ago
W 2-0 vs INFINITE MirageNuke Jun 16 58d ago
W 2-0 vs CYBERSHOKE AncientNuke Jun 15 59d ago
W 2-0 vs Gentle Mates NukeInferno May 31 74d ago
W 2-1 vs FOKUS AncientMirageDust2 May 31 74d ago
Player Matchups
Alliance
Ratings
Nemesis
ER
eraa
AWPADR 79.2KAST 76%
1.18 vs 1.25
R3
r3salt
RiflerADR 87.7KAST 75%
AV
avid
EntryADR 77.6KAST 75%
1.14 vs 1.15
SD
Sdaim
EntryADR 78.6KAST 74%
BO
bobeksde
RiflerADR 81.5KAST 70%
1.11 vs 1.06
MA
mag1k3Y
AWPADR 66.8KAST 75%
TW
twist
RiflerADR 74.8KAST 75%
1.06 vs 1.04
SE
SELLTER
RiflerADR 69.0KAST 73%
UP
upE
RiflerADR 68.5KAST 74%
1.03 vs 1.03
TE
tex1y
RiflerADR 72.9KAST 74%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Anubis
ALLI 13 5 NEME
93%
7%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
After First Kill
ALLI
NEME
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
Ban Rate
ALLI
NEME
Map Player Rating
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Anubis
Alliance
13-4 vs fnatic Jun 14
5-13 vs Metizport Jun 14
9-13 vs Nexus Jun 13
13-16 vs Sharks May 29
13-8 vs 3DMAX May 28
Nemesis
no data
Dust2
ALLI 6 13 NEME
8%
92%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
Round Win Rate
ALLI
NEME
Map Win Rate
ALLI
NEME
Open Score N75 Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Dust2
Alliance
16-14 vs 9z Jul 4
13-3 vs Nexus Jun 14
17-19 vs fnatic Jun 14
9-13 vs 3DMAX May 28
5-13 vs EYEBALLERS May 23
Nemesis
22-19 vs EYEBALLERS Jul 4
6-13 vs BetBoom Jul 3
7-13 vs TDK Jun 20
9-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Jun 17
13-9 vs FOKUS May 31
Mirage
ALLI 7 13 NEME
23%
77%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
After First Death
ALLI
NEME
Ban Rate
ALLI
NEME
Round Win Rate
ALLI
NEME
Map Win Rate
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Mirage
Alliance
5-13 vs ENCE Feb 11
10-13 vs SINNERS Feb 10
Nemesis
13-10 vs BetBoom Jul 3
13-11 vs TDK Jun 20
13-10 vs TDK Jun 17
13-4 vs INFINITE Jun 16
13-5 vs FOKUS May 31
Cache
ALLI 8 13 NEME
30%
70%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
ALLI
NEME
Opening Score
ALLI
NEME
Open Score N75 Diff
ALLI
NEME
Days With Lineup Diff
ALLI
NEME
Side Balance
ALLI
NEME
Recent on Cache
Alliance
no data
Nemesis
no data
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